Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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054
FXUS63 KLSX 261140
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
640 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection a little closer than the previous two nights with a
broken line of showers and storms stretching from near KIRK to south
of Kansas City this morning. Most of the guidance shows this line
moving east-southeast into the CWA during the predawn hours and
reaching the STL Metro between 12-14Z.  Have chance/sct PoPs given
uncertainty in coverage and will NOWcast up until morning forecast
issuance.

This activity should steadily sink south into the eastern Ozarks and
southeast Missouri with the remainder of the CWA drying out and
warming up this afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated showers or
storm popping up during the heat of the day, but believe best
chances of convection will be further west as outlooked by SPC.  In
fact, much of the guidance keeps the evening hours dry for the area
with rain chances ramping up after 06z tonight from the west and
southwest. This uptick in PoPs heading into Friday will be in
response to the upper level system that has been parked across the
southwest CONUS finally ejecting into the Plains and large scale
lift overspreading the Midwest.

CVKING

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Still appears that the best chances of widespread rainfall will
occur on Friday with likely to categorical PoPs in order. Cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler with highs
only in the 70s and lower 80s. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely affect the CWA through Saturday night,
but none look particularly favorable for severe weather.

Appears that there will be a break from the rain on Sunday and
Memorial Day as temperatures warm back up into the middle 80s each
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase again next week, as
southwest flow reestablishes itself across the central CONUS.
Temperatures look to remain warm with highs in the 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the St.
Louis region impacting all terminals between 12-14z with wind
gusts to 30 mph and visibilities as low as 2sm. Following the
initial line, showers and some thunder will linger through around
15z. Light showers may also impact KUIN and KCOU for a short time
through 15z. After 15z predominately VFR flight conditions are
expected at all the terminals through mid-evening. During the
evening a new area of showers and thunderstorms originating in
the Plains will push into western MO, and then move east-
northeast across central and eastern MO during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through KSTL between
12-14z with wind gusts to 30 mph and visibilities as low as 2sm.
Following the initial line, showers and some thunder may linger
through around 15z. After 15z predominately VFR flight conditions
are expected until the overnight hours. An area of showers and
thunderstorms originating in the Plains later this afternoon will
move into eastern MO during the overnight/early Friday morning
time frame.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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