Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 231820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
120 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

A large sfc ridge continues to dominate the ern part of the CONUS
with the center of the high near PA.  The high is not expected to
move much today. The ridge axis extends WSW thru the CWA which will
maintain the lght E/SE flow. With the overall synoptic setup not
changed much from yesterday...expect almost a carbon copy for today
with mostly clear skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

Upper level low now over the northern Rockies and Plains will move
slowly eastward tonight with at least weak convection ahead of it
across northwest MO.  It appears that the showers/storms will remain
north and west of our forecast area due to persistent surface ridge
extending from the northeast US southwest into eastern and southern
portions of MO.  The coolest low temperatures tonight will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL near the surface ridge axis where the
wind will be calm and there will only be some high level clouds.
The upper level low will eventually retrograde southwestward into
the central Plains Thursday and Thursday night.  There will be a
very gradual warming trend as the 850 mb temperatures begin to
slowly creep up over our area.  The ECMWF model tries to bring
precipitation into our area Sunday night and Monday as low level
moisture finally streams northward into the region ahead of an
upper level low and associated surface low over eastern OK and AR.
The GFS model also tries to bring some moisture northward into our
area, but is further north-northeast with the upper low and it does
not have any surface reflection, and also much less qpf in and near
our forecast area.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

Surface ridge just to east of forecast area, so winds have become
southeasterly. VFR conditions to persist through forecast period
with southeast to south winds becoming light and variable most
locations after sunset.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge just to east of forecast area, so winds have become
southeasterly. VFR conditions to persist through forecast period
with southeast winds becoming light and variable after 00z Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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