Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 131127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING ANY REAL IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
KCDS STANDS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER THAN KLBB...BUT CHANCES
MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WHILE REMAINING LIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ALONG AN INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THIS FEATURE TOWARD AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY AS A STRONG SUMMERTIME COLD CORE LOW ROTATES INTO
ONTARIO. THIS WILL IN TURN SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH INSOLATION AND
INCREASING H85 TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH READINGS REACHING
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 MPH.

AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEGREE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
COINCIDING WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE
IN DETERMINING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD CERTAINLY AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THETA-E AXIS LOOKS TO LARGELY
REMAIN FARTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MOISTEN DRASTICALLY ABOVE H65. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS A BIG
QUESTION MARK AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN VEERED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO NOT HELP
IN DRIVING NEARBY CONVECTION INTO THE REGION. NONETHELESS...DO
BELIEVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS THE FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THEM ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND LIFT
PROVIDED ENERGY FROM A REMNANT SHORTWAVE SHOWN BY THE
NAME...GFS...AND THE ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT STILL
SEEM TO BE A BIT IFFY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA...AS IT DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT ON HOW FAR THE
EXTENT OF COVERAGE WILL GO. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT JUST SLIGHTLY
FARTHER INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THUS PROVIDING MORE RAIN
COVERAGE VS THE GFS WHO BARELY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE FA. I HAVE
KEPT IN STRONG CHANCE MENTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FA DUE TO IF THE
FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS PWATS
REGULARLY STAY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
SOME AREA...IN PARTICULARLY THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN IS STILL SET FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS ITS FULL
PUSH INTO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES SOUTHWARD. NEEDLESS TO
SAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL HELP EMBED SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND WITH IT MOST RAIN
CHANCES. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IS LEFT IN UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD. BEYOND FRIDAY POPS ARE KEPT UNDER MENTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
THOUGH HAS YET TO BE DECIDED.

I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT LOWS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE MINUS THE ECMWF SEEM TO BE RUNNING MUCH TOO
WARM...MID 80S TO MID 90S...FOR HAVING A DECENTLY STRONG FRONT PUSH
THROUGH. THICKNESSES LOWER BY AS MUCH AS 10 DM AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES NOT TO MENTION THE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...SPECIFICALLY THE CLOUD COVER. I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE
ECMWF FOR TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE...ON THURSDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY AS THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO HANDLE POST FRONTAL TEMPS A BIT BETTER. I HAVE KEPT TEMPS FAIRLY
WARM PRE FRONTAL TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  66  89  63  85 /  10  20  30  50  30
TULIA         92  68  91  65  85 /  10  20  30  50  30
PLAINVIEW     92  68  91  65  87 /   0  10  30  40  30
LEVELLAND     93  67  92  67  91 /   0  10  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       94  69  93  69  89 /   0  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   93  66  93  68  93 /   0  10  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  94  69  92 /   0  10  20  30  30
CHILDRESS    100  73  96  69  88 /   0  10  30  50  30
SPUR          97  70  96  68  92 /   0   0  20  40  30
ASPERMONT    100  73  99  74  95 /   0   0  20  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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