Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
242 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

An upper-level ridge elongated from north to south will continue to
reside over the forecast area for the next day or so downstream of
an upper-low slowly drifting northward across northwest Mexico and
the desert southwest. At the surface, weak ridging is gradually
giving way to a trough which will slide through the area on
Wednesday bringing a wind shift to northwest - although wind speeds
will remain light through the period. About the only forecast
concern of note is how cool to go with overnight low temps. Last
night we hit 40 degrees at Friona while we saw mild temperatures
across the south due to thick cloud cover. We will lose most of the
clouds tonight, however the winds will veer to the west overnight
across the western South Plains - although they will remain quite
light. So overall, we think temperatures will come up just a bit in
the west and cool a bit in the east, averaging mid 40s northwest to
mid 50s southeast. It will be mostly sunny and warming on Wednesday,
with highs mainly in the 80s.

Only notable change to the extended forecast involved being more
bullish with max temps this weekend through early next week as we
transition toward deeper and milder SW flow. Until then, upper
ridging will amplify over the region in response to a deep cyclone
pivoting south from the western Great Lakes to the Bluegrass State
by late week. A well-defined backdoor cold front will accompany this
low`s shift to lower latitudes and enter our CWA Wed night, but deep
moisture voids present no threat for precip or even low clouds.
Cool surface ridging following this front should linger through
Fri before exiting ahead of moistening return flow. However, the
overall model trend is for even less moisture to return north this
weekend as the surface ridge is progged to linger near the Gulf
from Thu-Sun. Upshot of this is the likelihood of deeper mixing
Sat-Mon in an increasingly breezy and warmer SW flow regime.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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