Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 061056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
556 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE BOWLING BALL UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE FA. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE IN AS SHOWN ON WV
IMAGERY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKNESS FORMING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT SPARKS VERY SPOTTY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN LATER TONIGHT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND RATHER SHALLOW IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS LACK OF DECENT
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PROHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
DESPITE THE REGION BEING UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET WILL INHIBIT UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND SUPPORT MORE OF A
DOWNWARD MOTION. WITH MORE NEGATIVE FORCES WORKING AGAINST
CONVECTION THAN POSITIVE...MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR WINDS
WILL BE THE TIGHTNESS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE...6 MB
DIFFERENCE OVER 150 MILES. WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE 25 MPH ON
AVERAGE WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 30 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL DROP TO BELOW 20 MPH AFTER SUNSET. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS INCREASE WHICH WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. DUE
TO MOIST GREEN FUELS...HOWEVER...A FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT IS
NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE FIRMLY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE OUT LAS VEGAS
WAY ALTHOUGH...UNLIKE SOME THINGS...IT WON/T STAY IN VEGAS.  RATHER
THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING
WHERE IT LOOKS TO MATURE THEN IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT OF THE PAC NW TUESDAY NIGHT.  NOT LONG
THEREAFTER...THIS NORTHERN TROUGH MATURES.  ALL THE WHILE...LEAVING
THE SRN CONUS IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME.

SURFACE MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO WHERE WE NEED THEM FOR A
DECENT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO BREAK OUT STORMS SATURDAY MORNING BUT
LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...SUCH A SCENARIO LOOK TO BE
INCONCEIVABLE. GRANTED...A SLING A VIRGA SHOWER IS
PLAUSIBLE. AS SUCH...WILL TAKE A MORE TRADITIONAL APPROACH AND
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRETTY MUCH ALL
SOLUTIONS HAVE COME FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRYLINE OVER WHAT WAS
DEPICTED LAST NIGHT...THUS...CLOSER TO WHAT WAS SUGGESTED TWO
NIGHTS AGO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE I-27/US87 CORRIDOR AND EAST
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING TSTMS. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SHEAR WILL BE DECENT FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND THREATS. UNLESS A LOT MORE MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT UP
THIS WAY...THUS THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS QUITE LOW. THE POST
DRYLINE AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE BREEZY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...FEEDBACK FROM NATURAL
RESOURCE MANAGERS IN THE NW SOUTH PLAINS INDICATE THAT THE FUEL
STATES ARE LARGELY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE
CONCERNS. THUS...WILL NOT RAISE ANY RED FLAGS ATTM.

FOR SUNDAY THE DRYLINE IS NOW PROGGED TO RETREAT INTO NM...AT LEAST
FOR LEA COUNTY.  FCST SOUNDING INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OF SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY BEFORE THE DRYLINE RACES EASTWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS LEAVING ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EASTERN ROW IN THE DRY
AIR.  WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE LOOK TO BORDER ON ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONG WITH VERY DRY NEAR SFC CONDITIONS WITH INDICATED MIN RH VALUES
UNDER 10 PCT.  WITH CONDITIONS THIS DRY AND BREEZY...FIRE DANGERS
WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED FOR WHAT LITTLE PATCHY CURED FUEL
REMAINS.

BREEZY WESTERLIES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A BIT OF A RESPITE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME CANADIAN AIR FINALLY BECOMES DISLODGED AND A
FRONT COMES DOWN THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC LOW WELL TO
OUR NORTH. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/99/99



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