Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 172319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Quiet VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

Current visible satellite is pristine across our region though
some remnant contrails are slowly working to the southeast under
northwest flow aloft. Otherwise very little change in the
forecast through midweek as shortwave ridging shifts east tomorrow
peaking our temps mostly in the low to mid 80`s. Both GFS and
ECMWF have increased dynamic forcing for the longwave pattern
evolving on Thursday and into the weekend. The sharpened trough
behind tomorrows ridge broadens through Thursday and Friday and
leads to some light showers on the Caprock late Thursday night
and over the Rolling Plains early Friday.

The broader trough then connects with the more progressive and
potent Pacific trough on Saturday. Earlier model runs mostly
showed best upper level instability and surface moisture timing
off to our east which is still the case with the most recent GFS
output. 12z ECMWF slowed the trough slightly, anchoring the base
of the trough just our southwest with a hint of positive tilting
which would open the door for precip chances creeping farther west
than previously thought. If this trend continues in subsequent
runs and the GFS begins shifting farther west with these features
as well, we could be looking at increased chances for showers and
storms on Saturday out ahead of the surface cold front that will
push south through our area Saturday night. Temperatures have
moderated behind the front up to 5-10 degrees as mid level heights
rise quickly and winds return out of the south just as quickly.

Whatever precip chances we have for Saturday look to be our best
shot a rainfall through next week as persistent ridging across the
southwest CONUS keeps us dry under northwest flow with
temperatures hovering right around normal for this time of year.
Some days a little cooler, some a little warmer next week.




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