Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 060130
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
VIGOROUS TSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL FL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL FL TSTORMS IS PUSHING PRETTY FAST SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES FROM ABOUT PALM BAY TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE CURRENTLY. LOOKS LIKE IT HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...SO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO AND/OR
DEVELOP INTO METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, THE
PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT NOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE PALM BEACH METRO OVERNIGHT
AND TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE LITTLE OR VERY SLOW AND
ERRATICALLY. THEY ARE HOWEVER VERY CLOSE TO KAPF AND MAY EVEN
HAVE TO AMEND THEIR TAF IF THE STORMS BUILD IN THEIR DIRECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFT 01Z THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WHERE IT HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY DRY THIS RAINY SEASON.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TSTORMS AT NIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE AXIS NOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TUTT NOW EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS
FEATURE MOVING OVER THE BAHAMAS THEN SW OR EVEN S WELL TO OUR
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS FROM
THIS FEATURE AND LOOKS TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...OVER THE
FL STRAITS/CUBA. AT LOWER LEVELS...RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF AN E-SE WIND FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A FEW NIGHTTIME TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS H5 TEMPS COOL...TO -1.5C TO
-2C COLDER THAN AVG FOR EARLY JULY. THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY COULD
LEAD TO INCREASING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WITH A
FEW NIGHTTIME HIGHLY ELECTRIFIED TSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. AN ENHANCEMENT IN TSTORM VIGOR IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON`S OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST MID WEEK AS
WELL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.

BY LATE WEEK RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED E-SE FLOW AND REALLY AN UNCHANGEABLE
PATTERN IN DAILY CONVECTION...CONTINUING TO FOCUSED INLAND AND
TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MID LEVELS WARM LATE IN THE WEEK. SO LOOKS
LIKE THREAT FOR STRONGEST TSTORMS IS MID WEEK.

MARINE...
E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
LESS THAN 4 FT. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS, PARTICULARLY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  79  90 /  50  20  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  80  89 /  20  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  30
NAPLES           75  92  76  92 / 100  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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