Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 020132
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
932 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OVER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GULF COAST. HAVE VCTS AND SHRA IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL 02Z, ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EAST FLOW, THEY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SPARE MOST OF THE EASTERN TAF
SITES. HOWEVER, VCTS MAY STILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO SOME OF THE
SITES WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EVENING UPDATE BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND PATTERNS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH A FEW SHRA OVER
THE ATLANTIC IN THE NOW WELL ESTABLISHED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. UNDER
THIS REGIME, THERE COULD BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHICH MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST SO LEFT MENTION OF SCT
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY LIKELY AREA THAT
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL, OTHERWISE CLEARING SKY WILL BE THE
TREND LATER TONIGHT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. BASED ON LATEST PROJECTED TRACK...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
HAS LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. FEEL SEA-BREEZE
COLLISIONS OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN CWA WILL FORCE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
WITH SUNSET.

LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TREK NORTHWESTERN OVER OR JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ADVECT COPIOUS MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO 2-2.5
INCHES. RESULT WILL BE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE S AND SW INTO MONDAY PERHAPS FOCUSING
STORMS LATE DAY INTO INTERIOR AND EAST. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS
FORECAST TO MOVING WELL EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...BUT
STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. BY LATER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. ULTIMATELY THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS...SUCH THAT LATE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS MUCH
DRIER WITH NOT MUCH SURFACE FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED UPPER
HIGH...AND STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE DOMINATED BY OUTFLOWS THAN
SEABREEZE.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3
FEET...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...BUT
KEEP IN MIND UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  89  78  90 /  20  40  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  79  90 /  20  40  50  70
MIAMI            78  91  78  91 /  20  40  50  70
NAPLES           76  92  76  92 /  30  70  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI



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