Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 252004
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Eyes on the tropics heading into Memorial Day weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
A period of transition for South Florida as we head towards the
Memorial Day weekend. Easterly flow has firmly taken hold today,
allowing for any showers or thunderstorms that form to push west
towards Southwest Florida. The Gulf sea breeze has been pinned
further west, which could allow a flare up of convection later
this afternoon and evening when collisions occur.

Thursday appears to be a quieter day as surface high pressure and
slightly drier air hold over the area. To our east, a mid level
disturbance over the Bahamas will also be of interest as the work
week draws to a close. The impact of the potential development
of this system is still quite uncertain, but for Thursday the
impact appears to be drier conditions in an area of subsidence
west of the system.

For Friday, we will have to monitor the progress of the potential
system as associated moisture could near the east coast of
Florida. If the system were to develop, which the National
Hurricane Center discusses in their Special Tropical Weather
Outlook (TWOAT), the southeastern United States could see
unsettled weather. What that means for South Florida specifically
is still hard to tell. We could see the potential for some
increasing rain chances this weekend if the system stays weak and
disorganized with additional tropical moisture streaming into the
area. The flip side comes with potential development over the
Bahamas as we could continue in an area of subsidence which
provides for a drier weekend.

At this point, folks should continue to monitor the evolution of
this potential system and forecast trends. This system also serves
as a great reminder that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is nearly
here, officially kicking off on June 1st, and now is a great time
to make your ready kits and check on your preparations and plans
for the coming season. It`s better to prepare your family,
business, and community organizations with a plan before any
potential threats!

As the potential system pushes close to the South Atlantic coast
between Jacksonville and the Outer Banks of the Carolinas next
week, according to the latest guidance, our area could see a
moderation of moisture and a return to diurnal thunderstorms and
sea breeze circulations driving the area pattern. The hybrid
nature of the potential system continues to drive lower confidence
in the forecast through the extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated winds and seas will continue to cause potential hazards
for small craft. Those with concerns along the Atlantic coast
should monitor the forecast through the weekend to follow the
potential of tropical development east of the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 128 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions forecast through the TAF period under easterly
flow. The Atlantic sea breeze has helped to enhance the east wind
and should push the cloud field more inland through the afternoon.
While it is possible for a few showers and thunderstorms, they
should be well away from any of the TAF sites, so no mention of
weather at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  85  73  85 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  74  84  75  86 /  10  10  20  30
Miami            73  85  75  87 /  10  10  20  30
Naples           68  89  68  90 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Discussion/Marine...02/RAG


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