Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 201933
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
333 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT...Weak upper-level energy rotating around a
tropical disturbance located east of the Bahamas has allowed for
greater coverage in scattered shower activity today, especially
across the east coast and over the Atlantic waters. This activity
is expected to continue to persist into the early evening hours
before gradually dissipating in coverage as the energy moves south
and west of the region.
For tonight, mainly dry weather is expected outside of some isolated
showers mainly over the Atlantic waters. Winds should begin to shift
to more of a northerly direction overnight, with winds becoming
light and variable over the mainland. This will allow for good
radiational cooling, with low temperatures in the 60s for most
areas, except for near 70 along the coasts. Depending on how quickly
the boundary layer decouples this evening, would also not be
surprised if low temperatures in Hendry and Glades county flirted
with the upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coldest airmass since May expected across region this weekend...
The short term period will feature mainly dry weather across South
Florida, outside of isolated to widely scattered showers affecting
mainly the east coast and local Atlantic waters. A cold front will
move across the region late Friday into Friday night, helping to
usher in cooler, less humid, and drier air providing a taste of the
dry season to come. High temperatures will be near normal through
the period. For low temperatures, Friday night will generally see
lows in the 60s, with Saturday night expected to be the coldest
night since May. Low temperatures Saturday night are expected to
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, coldest in the interior.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical
disturbance east of the Bahamas, which is forecast to move north
through the western Atlantic waters, with no impacts expected to
South Florida regardless of whether further development occurs or
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will
dominate the weather pattern through the long term period. Dry
weather is expected through early next week. By the mid week period,
high pressure at the surface will begin to shift to the east while
the upper-level ridge begins to weaken. This will allow for winds to
become more easterly and allow for increasing moisture across the
region, which may bring a return of scattered showers to portions of
High temperatures throughout the long term period will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with low temperatures
generally in the 60s, coldest across the interior.
Northeast winds will become more northerly tonight and into Friday over
the local waters at 15 knots or less as a frontal boundary moves
across the region late Friday into Friday night. Behind the
frontal passage, high pressure will build across the region with
winds becoming more northeasterly, increasing to 15-20 knots by
early next week. Seas are expected to generally be 2-5 feet
heading into the weekend, with a lingering swell of around 2 feet
over portions of the Atlantic waters. Isolated showers will be
possible through tonight, before drier weather ensues for the
A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect for the beaches of
Palm Beach County until 8pm this evening. For the rest of the
beaches along the Atlantic coast, a Moderate Risk is in effect.
Rip current risk is expected to remain at least Moderate for
Atlantic beaches through tomorrow, with a decreasing risk over the
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal areas in Broward
and Miami-Dade Counties until 4pm Friday, and is no longer in
effect for coastal areas in Palm Beach County. For coastal areas
in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, isolated minor tidal
inundation will be possible around times of high tide, with the
next predicted high tides at Virginia Key forecast to occur at
126 AM early Friday morning and 209 PM Friday afternoon.
Light flow to continue through much of the period, though gusty
winds can be expected around showers. Atlantic showers are
possible around the east coast terminals over the next couple of
hours. Brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions are possible if a shower
directly impacts a terminals.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 68 86 66 82 / 10 0 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 70 85 69 83 / 10 10 0 10
Miami 72 86 69 83 / 10 0 0 10
Naples 69 83 63 79 / 20 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.