Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 220051
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
851 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
BULK OF EVENING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR ONE OR TWO LEFTOVER SHOWERS WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. EASTERLY FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
AREA, ALBEIT WEAK AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS PER LATEST MIAMI
SOUNDING. MOSTLY DRY NIGHT EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE EAST
COAST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP
IN EAST FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN (22Z) SHOWS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF PRECIP AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AFTER
3 AM, BUT THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED ON GENERAL LACK OF FORCING
AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURRENT PRECIP UPSTREAM OVER NW
BAHAMAS. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EAST
COAST AS IS. /MOLLEDA

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR EAST COAST BETWEEN 09Z-12Z
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 15Z-17Z. EAST WINDS ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY,
EXCEPT LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL FOCUS MOST OF AFTERNOON TSTMS
IN THE INTERIOR, WITH GENERAL MOTION TOWARDS THE GULF COAST DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NAPLES AND THIS COULD BE INCREASED TO TEMPO IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. VCSH FOR EAST COAST SHOULD COVER AFOREMENTIONED
NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  91  77  90 /  10  30   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  91 /  20  20   0  10
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  10  20   0  20
NAPLES           76  91  79  91 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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