Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 190230
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

VERY CALM AND TRANQUIL REGIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATES A DRY AND LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOPING THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME SITES IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD



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