Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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091
FXUS62 KMFL 252348
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
648 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Weak trough moving across the area may bring a wind shift towards
daybreak tomorrow. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail tonight,
except for possible periods of MVFR vis at TMB and APF in fog
around 8-12Z. Models are currently keeping the fog away from the
coast lines. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest early
Sunday morning, then shift northeast by mid morning behind the
trough. Periods of BKN040-050 will affect all the terminals Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The late afternoon surface analysis indicated a surface cold front
extending from upstate New York to near Panama City, with a broad
pre-frontal trough extending from near Gainesville southwestward
into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tonight, the front is forecast to push eastward off the southeast
coast and merge with the prefrontal trough, with the composite
boundary taking a more ENE-WSW orientation and sinking slowly
southward across the CWA. High resolution models indicate a ribbon
of slightly lower static stability over the Gulf Stream overnight, a
typical nocturnal feature in the winter. As the boundary moves over
the Gulf Stream overnight, a few showers may develop and try to
backbuild down the boundary, but these will stay generally off
shore.

Patchy fog may again form tonight, particularly over the interior.
However, slightly drier and cooler air will be filtering in from the
north late which may mitigate the extent and duration of any fog.

Sunday and Sunday night, as the James Bay low lifts out and high
pressure builds over the Western Atlantic, surface winds will veer
around to a more easterly direction. The drier and slightly milder
air tonight and early Sunday will be short-lived, as high
resolution models indicate moisture will quickly surge back into
South Florida from the east Sunday afternoon and evening, a
pattern favorable for isolated to scattered showers, particularly
close to the coast.

Over the coming week, generally east to southeast flow will continue
with high pressure over the Atlantic and a mean trough over the
Rockies. Patches of enhanced moisture moving through the flow may
promote scattered showers from time to time, with greatest
chances near the east coast. POPs are broadbrushed in the 10-20
percent range in this period. Temperatures will be slightly above
seasonal averages.

Late in the week, another decaying front may make a run at the area.
Ahead of the front on Thursday, surface winds shifting to southwest
may lead to a very warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s. As
with the current system, the decaying nature of the front
indicates only scattered showers followed by a modestly
milder/drier air mass are in store Friday and into next weekend.

MARINE...
High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of
today`s boundary will tighten the pressure gradient over the
region Sunday, leading to winds of 15-20 knots over the local
waters, veering from northeast to east with time. The strongest
winds of 20-25 knots Sunday and Sunday night will be in the waters
off Palm Beach County, with significant wave heights around 7
feet (highest over the Gulf Stream). This is enough to hoist a
Small Craft Advisory for that area. Winds and seas will very
gradually improve Monday and Tuesday.

BEACH FORECAST... The threat for rip currents will increase to at
least the moderate level at the Palm Beaches Sunday and all
Atlantic Beaches Monday due to moderate onshore winds. Later
forecasts may require a high risk issuance for rip currents in
some areas. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  63  79  71  82 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  67  80  72  82 /  10  20  20  10
Miami            67  81  71  83 /  10  20  20  10
Naples           62  81  64  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&




AVIATION...17/AR







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