Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 011458
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1058 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST...MAINLY TO
ADJUST FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THE MORNING
MIA UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB
TEMPS ONLY AT -5 C...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WIND PROFILE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING COULD LEAD TO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING
UP...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LEAVE THE HWO
PRODUCT AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UP...THIS THREAT WILL BE REDUCED. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS INCLUDED
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. VCSH AND THEN VCTS AFTER
14Z IS FORECAST FOR APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG



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