Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 230545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
KEPT VCTS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAPF...BUT IF
LATEST/DOWNWARD TREND HOLDS IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...MAY BE ABLE
TO REMOVE THUNDER UNTIL MID-MORNING TUE ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD TURN ESE AT 10 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY...AND GULF
BREEZE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT KAPF. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE AFTER SUNRISE...SO ADD 13-16Z TEMPO GROUP ALONG
EAST COAST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOST LIKELY ATLANTIC BREEZE
INTRUSION. THIS TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AND LATER IN
THE DAY TEMPO GROUNDS MAY ALSO BE WARRANTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 850MB FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

MARINE...

WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD, EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME
STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS MAY LEAD TO 20
KT WINDS FOR A TIME THROUGH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC ZONES TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME EVEN AT NIGHT. AN UPPER
HIGH MOVING INTO FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE WITH LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. EXPECT WAVES OF 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS, CLOSER TO 4 FEET AS THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS 15-20 KTS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MULTIPLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROFS WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTHEAST,
JUST SOUTH OF A DWINDLING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF
THESE DISTURBANCES/INSTABILITY/THETA E GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MUCH
DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND THE MORE NUMEROUS
STORMS INLAND, HOWEVER CONVERGENCE WILL STILL EXIST CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST WITH SSW WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, SUCH THAT
SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM INLAND AND ALSO NAPLES AREA, ALREADY HAD
A STORM PRODUCING 50KTS FROM PBI TDWR IN EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
PALM BEACH EARLIER TODAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER
THROUGH THE WEEK, BEGINNING TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SSW STILL TUESDAY, SO
STORMS MAY MOVE AND EVOLVE IN A SIMILAR FASHION, PERHAPS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN TODAY. ALSO WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS, THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AROUND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN
USUAL ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN CONCLUSION, THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINING THROUGH NORTH OR
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN
THE MID LEVELS LATE WEEK, MODEL PWATS ARE STILL CLOSE TO OR ABOVE
2 INCHES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER AS
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THUS UPPER HIGH MAY
FINALLY DELIVER A RESPITE TO THIS WET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  86  77 /  70  60  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  78  86  79 /  60  40  50  40
MIAMI            86  77  86  78 /  60  40  50  30
NAPLES           87  74  86  75 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...23/SK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.