Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 020110 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE
REMOVED IN THE EVENING UPDATE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT
FOR A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING.

FOG DEVELOP IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. THEREFORE...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE ADDED TO THE GULF WATERS AND CONTINUED FOR THE METRO
AREAS OF THE COLLIER COUNTY WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE SEAS IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS HAVE FALLEN TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE REPLACE WITH A SCEC FOR THE PALM BEACH
WATERS IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SEMI-STALLED FRONT HAS DRIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL TRY TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ALSO, SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF LOW CIGS COULD MOVE ACROSS CAUSING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. THESE ARE NOT SHOWN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED...AND A FEW
STORMS COULD FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON. A STREAMER WAS ALSO NOTED OFF
GRAND BAHAMA...AND A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS REACHES THE EAST
COAST NEAR WEST PALM BEACH...BUT OTHERWISE THE EAST COAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG OUR COAST
YESTERDAY WILL MERGE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH FLORIDA...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
TONIGHT.

850MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH
PWATS 1-1.2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST
FROM THE YUCATAN. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL CONTINUE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND THEN FLATTEN OUT AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE ECMWF IS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
E-SE WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DRIER AIR COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. PATTERN TODAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN THE SUMMER,
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE IN CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION. GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHRA AND EVEN ISOLATED TSRA NEAR THE WEST
COAST. WENT WITH VCSH FOR KAPF AS COVERAGE OF TSRA NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH ANY PROLONGED CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT. POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THIS AT KPBI WHERE A STREAMER FROM GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THAT AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT FOG
AT KAPF 10Z-13Z, OTHERWISE FAIR AND VFR. /MOLLEDA

MARINE...
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  81  71  82 /  10  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  81  72  79 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            71  83  71  82 /  10  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  83  65  85 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....84/AK



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