Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 130049
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...


NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. VERY PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING NEARLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF TONIGHT.
WEAK SRLY SFC WIND AROUND 5 KTS ALONG ATLANTIC COAST TO BECM MORE
VRB/WRLY BY MID/LATE EVENING...AND WEAK/NWRLY OVERNIGHT. LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ENOUGH NEAR SFC CONDENSING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FG TO
DVLP VCNTY KPBI WITH SLIGHTLY LESS NEAR SFC MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
SOME SHALLOW FG AT KAPF. HAVE OPTED TO CARRY UPPER END MVFR VSBYS
FOR SAID TERMINALS WITH GREATER REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS EXPCTD TO
EXIST FARTHER INLAND FROM TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE /NARRE-TL AND
RAP/ INDICATES VSBYS AT KFLL/KFXE MAY BRIEFLY LOWER AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VFR UNTIL FCST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. DRY SFC BOUNDARY PROG TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS
DRNG THE DAY FRI WITH NRLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER PASSAGE WITH VFR
PREVAILING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION THERE IS A DIFFUSE FRONT
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

THE MAINLY DRY AND DIFFUSE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND PASS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEN APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND
12Z SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ENTERING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE IMPACTS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND REGIONAL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO ENTER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

ANOTHER NOTABLE CHANGE ON MONDAY WILL BE THAT THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL BE EAST OF A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF. IN
ADDITION THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RESULTANT
WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH AT
LEAST THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS SUPPORTING IT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FORECAST AND WILL NEED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REFINE THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTED WEATHER...INCLUDING WHETHER ANY
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO
EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

MARINE...

REGIONAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER ON SATURDAY
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND 00Z
SUNDAY...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...BUT NOT ENOUGH DURATION FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE GULF STREAM SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET FORECAST AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY...SIMILARLY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE TRENDS WILL BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WHETHER ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR THIS PERIOD. NO
OTHER FORECAST PERIODS INDICATE A CHANCE OF HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  75  55  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  76  58  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            57  77  58  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           53  74  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD


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