Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 210746
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
246 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A retreating frontal boundary is acting as a convective focus area
this morning. Radar has indicated rainfall amounts over 1 inch
over portions of the east coast metro overnight as the front
pushes northward across the area. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the
amplifying mid-level trough shifts eastward with associated clouds
and convection. Closer to home over the southeast Gulf of Mexico,
an area of convection associated with a shortwave trough is
pushing closer to Florida. Between the frontal boundary in the
region and this shortwave trough, expected an increase in
convection today compared to previous days. Slightly warmer
temperatures and additional cloud cover are also expected today.
Some of the convection today is capable of producing gusty wind
and heavy rain.

As the shortwave trough moves away tonight, rain chances will
decrease overnight into Wednesday morning. Another shortwave
trough will push into the region on Wednesday, once again bringing
an increase in convection over Florida. Some guidance is hinting
that there might be a slot of drier air over southern Florida on
Wednesday, which might help limit convection to later in the day.
As the frontal boundary emerges and the mid-level trough pushes
closer, a surface low may develop over the northeastern Gulf by
Thanksgiving Day. Rain and thunderstorm mentions remain in the
forecast for Thanksgiving Day and Friday as the boundary remains
over the region. Finally, the mid-level trough should swing
through late Friday into early Saturday allowing for drier and
slightly cooler air to come in for the weekend. A reinforcement of
the drier, cooler air should arrive late in the weekend leading
to a chillier start to the next work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions over the Atlantic waters are expected to improve today,
though small craft will need to exercise caution until winds and
seas diminish. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
coming day and nights before a cold front clears through the area
this weekend bringing increasing winds and potentially hazardous
seas in its wake.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
The high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches is
expected to last another day as the onshore flow shifts
southeasterly. As the wind decreases, the rip current risk on the
Atlantic beaches should diminish over the next couple of days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017/

AVIATION...
SHRA with moderate to heavy rain will continue to develop
through the night and affect the east coast terminals. The
frontal boundary will gradually move north tonight shifting
the line of showers further north into OPF and FLL. Expect
brief period of low vis to IFR levels with gusty winds up to
30 knots. Light southerly flow will prevail during the day
with continuing the chance of convection coming onshore from
the Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  67  83  70 /  60  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  83  70  83  71 /  50  30  20  30
Miami            84  71  85  72 /  40  30  20  30
Naples           84  67  83  69 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...67/MT
BEACH FORECAST...02/RAG



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