Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 282347
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
447 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.Update AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...(29/00Z TAFs)...Mainly VFR conditions prevail with
widespread terrain obscurations across the region. Areas of MVFR
ceilings are present, mainly associated with widespread showers
passing through the area today. This will be the general trend
through the afternoon and evening, but with the addition of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms focused over the marine waters, along the
coast and inland west of the Cascades. Winds will be breezy across
the area through this afternoon, with some strong outflows/wind
gusts expected with any of the stronger showers/thunderstorms.

Shower activity will wind down for most areas away from the
immediate coast/marine waters after midnight. There should be enough
lingering VFR/MVFR stratus around tonight to preclude fog
development in area valleys tonight. /BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024/

SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning (3/31)...A low pressure
system lingering over the Pacific Ocean is continuing to bring
active to northern California and southern Oregon, although the
impacts form this system are decreasing. Southwesterly flow aloft
is continuing to bring light to moderate rainfall to the Oregon
coast, especially to areas south of Cape Blanco. Storm cells with
40-45 dBZ reflectivity will pop up occasionally around Brookings,
but no lightning strikes have been sensed since this morning and
reflectivity drops quickly as these cells move over land. Lighter
scattered showers are continuing to stream over inland areas.

While snow showers are continuing to move over the Cascades, western
Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta area, road webcams and radar
imagery are indicating light activity in these areas. So while
caution is encouraged while traveling through these areas as active
weather continues, there is no need for continuing Winter Weather
Advisories. As of the posting of this discussion, these products
have been cancelled.

Gusty winds are moving over elevated terrain, especially over areas
east of the Cascades. Stations across Lake County and in Weed are
reporting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds are expected to
continue into the afternoon but should calm quickly this evening.

The low pressure system will start to move to the south towards
California tonight, and through the day Friday. While this will
bring an end to widespread activity, scattered showers will still be
possible as moisture wraps around the system and returns to the area
from the south and the east. This will bring slight precipitation
chances (25-50%) to Siskiyou, Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties
during the day. Showers will have to get past the Cascades to reach
west side areas.

The pattern will start to transition from active to stable on
Saturday. Northerly flow aloft will help to keep temperatures close
to seasonal norms. Gusty winds may develop over elevated terrain
Saturday afternoon and persist into the evening, but these winds are
not expected to reach advisory thresholds right now. The week will
begin with atmospheric stability and above average temperatures
across the area. -TAD

Extended Discussion...(Monday through Thursday)...It will remain
dry through Tuesday with milder temperatures in the afternoon for
most interior locations. The ridge axis shifts east as an upper
trough approaches from the west, but the front will remain offshore
through Tuesday evening.

The front will reach the coast late Tuesday night and could bring a
slight chance of rain to the coastal counties and Douglas County by
early Wednesday morning, with dry weather likely elsewhere.

The upper trough will push closer towards the area Wednesday and
the operational models show what could be convective feedback with
QPF fields increasing in northern Cal, Cascades and eastside. The
individual ensemble members show a variety of solutions, with the
majority of them keeping most of the precipitation along and west of
the Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Beyond next Wednesday, the evidence is  still pointing towards
troughiness over the Pac NW which could carry over into the start of
next weekend, leading to more cool and unsettled weather.
-Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 100 PM Thursday, March 28, 2024..Moderate to
strong southwest winds will persist into the evening, with brief
periods of gales possible north of Cape Blanco. A high and steep
swell group is moving through the waters this afternoon, peaking
around 15 to 18 ft today. Conditions will slowly improve late
tonight as winds diminish, and while seas will gradually subside
tonight, steep seas are expected for much of the day Friday.

A pattern change is expected Friday with winds becoming northerly
Friday evening and increasing on Saturday. These northerly winds are
likely to stick around into the first half of next week, resulting
in periods of steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially south
of Cape Blanco. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$


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