Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 200831
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
131 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WE ARE FORECASTING 98 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN MEDFORD
TODAY WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD HIGH SET IN 1952. WE ARE
EXPECTING 87 DEGREES IN KLAMATH FALLS COMPARED WITH A RECORD HIGH
ON THIS DATE OF 88 DEGREES SET IN 2012. THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH
WILL PEAK TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A DISTANT MEMORY LATER NEXT
WEEK AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM USHERS IN FALL.

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA TODAY. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EAST SIDE WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
INLAND AREAS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH
AS WE MOVE INTO LATE SEPTEMBER.

ON MONDAY A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING WELL EAST OF OUR REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...BUT STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST UNUSUALLY WARM AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE BIG TRANSITION DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTSIDE. ALTURAS COULD BE WARMER
THAN MEDFORD DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THAT DAY ON THE EASTSIDE.

THE WILDFIRES SHOULD SEE A GOOD DOUSING OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE BIG UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO ALLEVIATE THE
FIRES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE...UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO EAST FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...BUT IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVING DOWN
THE COAST WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO...INCLUDING
KOTH...LATER TONIGHT. THOSE AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  STRATUS SURGING UP THE COAST WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE NEAR
WILDFIRES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR
THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS NORTHWEST SWELL
BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
   UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
   PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM
   PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$








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