Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 240903
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
203 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE ARE GOING INTO A PATTERN OF RELATIVELY WARM AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS EASTWARD TODAY, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE COMES TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW PASSING BY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT STRATUS OVER THE UMPQUA AND
PORTIONS OF THE COAST WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THERE.

THE LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO DRY AND HOT WEATHER EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AT
MEDFORD BY FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY. I HAVEN`T GONE AS HIGH AS
SOME MODELS SUGGEST, BUT SINCE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
TIMING, POSITION, AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, I DID RAISE
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...THEN
BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. SKIES
WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$


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