Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 032135
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH A UPPER
LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TODAY...A BAND OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT. THE
GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT OTHER MODELS SHOW MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
WARNERS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT A BAND OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS, EXPECT THAT STRONGER
CELLS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MODOC
COUNTY AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCATTERED
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO DURING THE EVENING, A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE SISKIYOUS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY AND STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER, WITH
A STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SO EXPECT
RAINFALL TO BE LESS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO
TODAYS STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODOC AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THEN ON SUNDAY EXPECT SHORTWAVES AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES EAST AS WELL
AS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS SUNDAY
DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THIS EVENT.

THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE AND
ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN
OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW, EXPECT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES,
POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THOUGH ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS MOVES INLAND. SO HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMALS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF
CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -MND


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS GENERALLY BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS AND FOG AFFECTING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NSK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY, AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY, MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT, AND DUE
TO THIS, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES, AND MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE
EXPECTING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES WOULD BE DRY. THE DRY LOW
LEVELS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE
REASONS, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, AND WILL WATCH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



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