Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220701
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 am Sat...Heat and humidity will continue again with
heat index values 105-109 degrees. Low level thickness values
and 850mb temps around 20C support highs in the mid 90s inland
and upper 80s/low 90s along the coast. Another Heat Advisory
today for all of the forecast area except for Outer Banks Hyde
County. Isolated storms will be possible again during the
afternoon and evening, but think the best chance will be west of
Highway 17 late, with ridge suppressing convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 am Sat...QPF from the ECMWF and NAM12 have dry
conditions from 00-06Z. However, the GFS is very aggressive in
tracking a vort along the NC/VA line overnight and pushing a
convective complex down through the forecast area. MCSs have
moved southeast last night and again tonight through the Ohio
Valley into the mid- Atlantic. HPC QPF tracks another MCS
tonight along a similar path tonight, passing just north of our
northern counties. GFS therefore looks overdone, but will not
make any changes to PoPs tonight, keeping slight chance going
along coastal plain and northern tier through 04Z, then dry for
the remainder of the night. Yet another warm, muggy night with
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...No significant changes to the forecast. One
more oppressively hot day Sunday then a little cooler and wetter
for the early part of the week. May dry a bit mid week as front
tries to push S of region briefly, with a return northward and
more unsettled weather later in the week.

Sunday through Sunday night...Dry through most of this period
with the main thunderstorm activity well north across the Mid
Atlantic, with a possible MCS. Beyond an isolated sea breeze
storm Sunday afternoon, if we were to see anything organized the
best chance would be across the far north. Continued low chance
pops across the far north to account for this as these areas
could be on the outer edges of a dying MCS. We remain in a
marginal risk for severe weather across the far north. Limiting
factor remains the convection making it this far south.

Models cont to show low level thicknesses around 1435-1440
meters Sunday. This will support max temps easily reaching the
mid 90s one last day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are expected once
again Sunday afternoon.

Forecast max temps will generally be below record highs at most
sites during period.  See Climate section below for details.

Monday through Tuesday...Upper level heights will lower in the
east Monday, as a massive upper level high over Arkansas today
retreats west toward the four corners area of the southwest US.
The result for us will be a little cooler and unsettled
weather. On Monday a cold front will approach and while not as
hot as this weekend, temps will again climb into the 90s one
more day with the southwest flow ahead of the front...with heat
index values poss flirting with 105 again inland. The front
looks to move slowly SE into the region later Tue, bringing the
entire area a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Front mentioned above should stall
near srn sections Wed keeping threat of shra and storms these
areas with less chc across the N. The front lifts back N of
region Thursday and Friday with a return to slightly better
chances for thunderstorms each day, especially during the peak
heating of the day. Highs mostly 80s Wed then could see around
90/low 90s again inland late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1 am Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Light SW winds 5-10 knots this morning, increasing to
10-15 knots with gusts 15-20 knots this afternoon. Isolated
storms possible again in the afternoon. Winds diminish back to
5-10 knots Sat night. Any convection will dissipate in the
evening.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Sat...VFR expected through the weekend with only
isold threat of convection. Cont mainly VFR Mon thru Wed
however will have better coverage of shra/tsra from time to time
resulting in a few pds of sub VFR. Weak front drops thru later
Tue and stalls over southern sections Wed...could see some
lower cigs assoc with the front and some late night fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 3 am Sat...High pressure will continue offshore with
troughing inland through the period continuing the S to SW flow.
Latest obs show 10-20 kt and seas 2-3 ft north and 3-5 ft
south. Winds in the Pamlico Sound and at Diamond Buoy have been
steadily gusting near/to 25 knots so will go ahead and begin
Small Craft Advisory in those zones. Made no changes to the
beginning time of SCA for the other marine zones.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Sat...SSW winds of 15 to 25 kts will cont Sunday
thru Mon between offshore high pres and front/trf to the W.
These winds will lead to seas of mainly 5 to 6 feet outer
central and srn wtrs. Added srn wtrs to SCA starting early
Sunday into Sunday evening. Also extended SCA for central wtrs
thru Mon evening per ocnl gusts aoa 25 kts and 6 ft seas. As
front gets closer later Mon night winds and seas will slowly
subside. The front will drop Thru nrn half of region later Tue
into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over srn tier.
Expect nrn wtrs will see a period of light onshore E to NE
winds behind front Tue night into Wed while srn tier will cont
with mainly S to SW winds but shld be light. Seas will subside
to 2 to 3 feet all wtrs Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Max Temps for 07/22 (Sat)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        106/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1987  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   100/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         105/1932  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/2011  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/23 (Sun)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        100/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1972  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      103/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         103/2011  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern         99/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2016  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1999  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF/EH
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF
CLIMATE...MHX



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