Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 071200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
COAST TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY. AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...BIG STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE U.S.
SOUTHEAST COAST.

H20 VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLASSIC DEFORMATION
SIGNATURE/BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE ALOFT. COMPACT SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRANSITING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT THE
SFC... GRADIENT IS RAPIDLY TIGHTENING AS OBSERVED BUOY OBS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA INDICATE WINDS TO GALES CURRENTLY.
STRONG PVA NOTED INVOF THE THE UPPER LOW AND THIS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOW LEVELS STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF SATURATING THOUGH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FGEN ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER WITH RA ACROSS MOST OF THE FA.

SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS STILL IN PLAY FOR TODAY AS NOTED BY SEVERAL
OBS INDICATING UP EARLIER THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAP/HIGH RES
SNDGS INDICATE WET BULB TEMPS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 DEGREES C...JUST
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO REACH
THE SFC. AS HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY YET ALLOW FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP...GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 17.
SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING HOWEVER...SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND ANY SNOW WILL BECOME ALL
LIQUID.

MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE HIGH RES SUITE...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TREMENDOUS PRES FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS STRONG
BOMBOGENESIS OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A VARIETY OF VERY HIGH IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL E NC. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
GUSTS 55-60 MPH FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN CARTERET COUNTY
THROUGH THE OBX. RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE OBX...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE DRY
AIR WILL HAMPER PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. THE RAIN WILL
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SUN...CONTINUED VERY HIGH IMPACTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PLOD
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF STREAM. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. IMPACTS WILL LIKELY PEAK
THIS EVENING AS STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 4PM AND
MIDNIGHT. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND THIS IS WHEN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND. SEE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ENDING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME
MODERATION SEEN ON FRIDAY AS TROF DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT...BUT THEN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS TEMPS
BACK DOWN. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE AS FLOW IN GENERALLY WESTERLY AND MOISTURE LIMITED. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS SO INCLUDED 20-30 POPS UP
THERE. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...WITH BKN-OVC MID
CLOUDS WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING E NC. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF -RA/SN AT ISO/PGV SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO PRED -RA. SUB- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FINALLY SATURATE. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH MAY FLIRT WITH IFR ESP AT KEWN AND
KOAJ. WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS
25-30KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY N WINDS COULD
RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR EWN RUNWAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/
AS OF 330 AM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
PRECIP FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR.
DRY/VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY...WEST 15-20 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND WEST-NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SUN...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING CONDIONS FOR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PEAKING LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO MARINE
HEADLINES. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND BY BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL PEAK THIS EVENING
AS HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO ADD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA NORTH OF
OREGON INLET TO THE STORM WARNING...AS LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING HERE.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. VERY
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PREDOMINATING. HEADLINES FOR WIND AND/OR
SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS AND ADJACENT
RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 350 AM SUN...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF
THE NC COAST WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW WINDS,
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN THIS
EVENENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER LEVELS
OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK IN
EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-
     092>094-098.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ095.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ093.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-150.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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