Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 031516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



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