Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271938
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING INTO THE 40S ON THE HEELS OF A
BRISK NORTH WIND. AS EXPECTED EASTERN NC IS IN A ANA TYPE PATTERN
WITH PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN REGION OF
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WE ARE ALSO OBSERVING ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH LIGHTNING INDICATING THE PRESENCE
OF ICE. THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO STABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT
SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS BY 02Z THEN
THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (LOWER 40S SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD A
CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND A
DEEP UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY
PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED SO HAVE KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40%. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY. SEE NO NEED
TO CHANGE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILING WILL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SCATTERED RAIN HAS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND
THE POTENT COLD FRONT...PRODUCING SOME MODERATE/HVY SHOWERS AT
TIMES AND REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR. PLUS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH SOME LIGHT POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS. SOUNDING MODELS AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BACK APPROXLY 13/14Z
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THEN VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 9 FT. HAVE ADDED THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE ADVISORIES BASED ON OBSERVATION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THINK WINDS THERE SHOULD SUBSIDE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING
AT THE SAME TIME AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ON MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ARE FORECAST BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND CAPE LOOKOUT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY BECOMES PINCHED.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
2-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/BM
MARINE...JME/HSA



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