Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240622
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
122 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the coast will move northeast overnight. High
pressure will build into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A
cold front with limited moisture will move through the area
Thursday followed by a Northwest flow of seasonably cold and dry
air Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 930 PM Monday...Rain is diminishing over the region as
stacked low pres moves off the coast. Rain will cont to end
from W to E and will maintain small pop NE tier later tonight.
Plenty of clouds will linger overnight with good deal of low lvl
moisture on backside of the low. NW winds will increase as the
low departs with lows dropping into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Dry High pressure to the south will
build over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. NW flow Tuesday
will lead to cooler highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows Tuesday
night will again be in the lower 40s inland and mid 40s coast.
On Wednesday the high will move offshore and the flow will come
out of the SW which will lead to much warmer highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s inland and low to mid 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 am Mon...Latest run of the GFS and ECMWF in very good
agreement through the long term with an overall dry pattern
along with cooling temperatures. Surface/upper ridge pass mainly
to the south midweek ahead of approaching cold front. The front
will pass through Thursday afternoon. Moisture supply remains
poor according to forecast soundings and with the speed of the
front will be confined mainly to the morning hours so have
adjusted timing accordingly. Made no change to PoPs, keeping at
30%. Large upper trof gradually becomes deeper over the eastern
half of the nation for the remainder of the period. Highs Friday
through Sunday will be in the upper 40s/lower 50s with
overnight lows in the lower/mid 30s with upper 30s/lower 40s
Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Wednesday/...
As of 100 AM Tuesday...Precip threat has ended with upper low
moving off to NE. Widespread MVFR CIGs around 1500 feet will
persist overnight with post-frontal inversion. Guidance in good
agreement that cloud deck will scatter out 12Z-15Z with VFR
conditions rest of period. NW winds will gust to 20 KT until
late in the day.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 am Mon...VFR through the period. Scattered light
showers Thursday morning as a cold front passes through.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 930 PM Monday...Increased seas up to 2 feet nrn waters as
wavewatch and SWAN significantly underdone with large ENE
swell. This swell may persist and later shifts may need to bump
up seas a bit Tue. Otherwise fcst on track with gusty NW winds
developing behind departing low pres overnight.

Prev disc...S/SW flow 5 to 15 kt late today will become NW and
increase to 15 to 25 KT after midnight and continue as
developing low pressure pulls away from the NC and high pressure
builds in from the south. Seas are currently 5 to 8 ft and may
briefly subside further this evening but will build back up to 7
to 10 ft late tonight and Tuesday.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/...
As of 300 PM Mon...Models in good agreement through the period.
windy conditions forecast with small craft winds and/or seas on
the coastal waters much of the period. Flow will be northwest
Tuesday into Tuesday night, backing to west then southwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will pass through Thursday morning, with winds
veering to west during the day and continuing into Friday. On
the area rivers and sounds winds generally 5-15 knots, except on
the Pamlico where winds will reach 15-20 knots Tuesday, and
again behind the front Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM



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