Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 270539
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE TONIGHT. EASTERN NC WAS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS FEATURE WITH COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
RADAR INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. THINK
THIS PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO EASTERN NC BY 08Z INITIALLY AS
LIGHT RAIN THEN CHANGING TO VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. COMBINATION OF WARM GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PRECLUDE ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH AT WORST A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.



LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 6 TO 8 FT AS EXPECTED AND WILL BUILD FURTHER TO 8 TO 10
FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/SK






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