Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 291147
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
747 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain stationary across the Ohio
River Valley through this weekend. High pressure will build in
from the north early next week and slide offshore by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 745 AM Thursday...Only minor changes for the update, mainly
to increase PoPs to likely for a few hours across the coastal
plain as an area of showers is moving into the area. HRRR lifts
this north and weakens it over the next few hours.

Latest meso-analysis showing a vertically stacked low pressure
system centered over Indiana early this morning, which will remain
quasi-stationary over the Ohio River Valley today, while a
stationary front remains across the piedmont region. SSE flow
ahead of the low is drawing a moist airmass across the region with
PW values in excess of 1.6 inches. A weak vort max moving through
the upper low is expected to enhance showers today aided by
increased instability from diurnal heating and around 20-25 KT of
bulk shear. Depending on amount of cloud cover, and subsequently
the amount of instability realized, could see a few stronger
storms develop this afternoon but at this time SPC is keeping the
marginal risk of severe just west of the CWA where greater shear
has been residing. Highs today expected in the mid 80s inland to
lower 80s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...The pattern changes very little tonight
with the upper low centered across the Ohio River Valley and a
stationary front across the piedmont. Shower and thunderstorm
chances continue overnight with greatest coverage expected early
evening, then gradually diminishes overnight as the vort max
lifts north of the area and instability wanes. Another mild night
expected with lows in the upper 60s inland to mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...
Fri through Sat...Big upper low will cont to the NW through the
end of the week with weak surface low/cold front to the west.
This will keep mainly srly flow over the area into Sat. Models are
slower to push dry mid lvl air into the region Fri so pops have
been increased with chc all areas...highest coast. Decent instab
develops again Fri so expect sct tsra some poss strong. Still
looks like decent axis of moisture will cont near the coast Sat
and have chc pops cst tapering to slight chc or no pop deep
inland. Will remain warm with srly flow...lows mainly mid 60s to
low 70s with highs in the low to poss mid 80s.

Sunday through Mon...As the upper low begins to lift NE Sunday
the sfc low/front slowly dissipates as it approaches Sun and
drifts off the coast Mon. Models cont to keep better moisture
along and E of cst so cont low chc pops cst Sunday tapering to
slight chc Monday...inland areas will be mainly dry. Not much
change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to low 70s cst
with highs upr 70s to lower 80s.

Tue through Wed...High pres will gradually build in from the N
Tue and slide E Wed. This will keep most areas dry Tue with small
pop cst. On wed increasing onshore flow will lead to a little
better chc of showers across the region. Little cooler with more
pronounced NNE flow Tue and Wed with highs mainly 70s to poss
around 80 S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 745 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through the period
however scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to bring
periods of sub-VFR conditions across routes. Also, with light
winds and a moist boundary layer, could see patchy fog or stratus
late tonight but confidence is low as to occurrence as guidance
and has been overdone the past few nights. Ultimately it will
depend on amount of rain received today and degree of cloud cover
persisting tonight.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont Fri with a
few periods of sub VFR likely. Drier air will work in from the W
Sat into Mon with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR...there
will be threat of some late night and early morning fog and
stratus with light winds this weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 745 AM Thursday...Latest buoy obs showing S/SE winds below
15 knots and seas 3-4 ft across the waters. The pattern will
remain stagnant through the short term with a stationary front
remaining across the piedmont and expect similar conditions to
persist through the period with S/SE winds below 15 KT and seas
around 2-4 FT south and 3 to 5 FT north.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region Fri
into Sat will lead to mainly S flow aob 15 kts. The low/front will
slowly slide E toward the coast Sunday then move offshore Monday.
Light mostly S winds Sunday will become NE Mon but remain weak.
Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet...could flirt with
5 ft at times far outer waters...especially Fri into Fri night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK


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