Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 200217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1018 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM SAT...LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUING TO BRING
OVERCAST SKIES WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH TONIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS AROUND 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SAT...STACKED LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN NC. FORCING CONTINUES TO WANE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL SECTIONS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING ACCUMULATING PRECIP. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW MUCH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST MESO MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/ECMWF ARE
WETTER SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH DRYER. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS
EASTERN SECTIONS TO SLT CHANCE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
HEATING BUT EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATE ABOUT THE
STACKED LOW OFF THE SE COAST. MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN EARNEST PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK NEAR 70/LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE WATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER 6OS AT
THE COAST.

MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REMAINING LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WED WILL
RISE TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY A WEAK FRONT TO AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY BUT WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW UNTIL FORECAST DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 701 PM SAT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
AND ISOLATED TEMPORARY VFR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND FOR LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO SUB VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THE DAY TOMORROW. CROSSWIND COMPONENT NOTED AT NEW BERN TAF
TOMORROW. SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE INLAND
TAFS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN TAFS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE. BUT
CONTINUED SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INLAND AREAS SHUD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY
OR SO.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
AGAIN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY WITH PREDOMINANT VFR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1018 PM SAT...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA CREATING STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER COASTAL WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHER WATERS AND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AND RIVERS. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

THE LOW GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST OFF THE FL COAST SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED TIGHT PRES GRADIENTS ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
NE WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT TO AS HIGH AS 35 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KT CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND TO 8-11 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ACROSS THE RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHT GRDNT BETWEEN SFC
LOW TO S AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. CONT GALES CNTRL AND SRN WTRS
THRU SUN EVENING WITH SCA ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E
AND THE HIGH WEAKENS WINDS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE MON AND BECOME LIGHT
MON NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH CROSSES. WINDS WILL GRAD BECOME SW 10
TO 15 KTS TUE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS MAY LEAD TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE
OUTER WTRS LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCA FINALLY ENDING ALL WTRS BY 12Z
TUE. SEAS WILL LINGER MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TUE. NW TO N
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 6+ FT ON WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 345 PM SAT...CONTINUING HIGH SURF FOR OBX NORTH OF HAT
STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONT INTO MON. AS NE WINDS INCREASE
TODAY AND CONT THRU EARLY MON SEAS SWILL BUILD WITH WAVES IN SURF
ZONE LIKELY REACHING 7 TO 9 FT. THE PERSISTENT POUNDING WAVES
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ALSO THE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ARE BRINGING WATER LEVELS OF UP TO 2 TO 2.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND THIS WEEKEND. IMPACTS
APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS POINT AND HOLDING OFF FROM ISSUING A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CGG/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF/SK








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