Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230646
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall just south of the area Sunday. Low
pressure will slowly move northeast along the coast of the
Carolinas Monday and Tuesday. High pressure in the central
Atlantic will build in Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...quick update to reduce POPs to 30% rest of
night for Rodanthe-KEWN-KOAJ line. Frontal boundary has pushed
south of area but main lift and best precip coverage expected NW
of that line. No other changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 1005 PM Saturday...Convection associated with the
southward moving cold front is now moving across central
portions of the area late this evening with the storms showing a
weakening trend since 9 PM. The cold front will continue to
move southeast across the remainder of eastern NC overnight
producing additional showers and storms with it. Although
convection should wane after 1 AM, scattered to numerous showers
should persist behind the cold front overnight and will
continue likely PoPs all areas overnight with most locations
expected to receive at least some measurable precipitation.
After several unusually warm nights...lows tonight behind the
front will be in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...Cold-air damming sets up for Sunday with deep
moisture below 850 mb coupled with low-level northeast flow
will lead to a cooler day with mostly stratiform precipitation
with elevated thunder. Do not think Sunday will be a washout and
have kept PoPs mostly in the high chance to low likely category
but QPF totals will not be overly high for Sunday as the deeper
moisture and stronger upper dynamics arrive with closed upper
low Sunday night into early next week. High temperatures Sunday
will be considerably cooler ranging from the mid 60s north to
mid 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sat...Heavy rain and flooding event Monday into
Tuesday afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates widespread
rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches, with heavier amounts of 5 to
6 inches possible over Jones, Lenoir, Duplin and Onslow
counties. A flash flood watch may be needed for parts of Eastern
NC for Monday and Tuesday.

Monday and Tuesday...Strong, and elongated upper trough
approaches from the west early Monday with a surface low
pressure out just ahead of it. Another surface low pressure will
be located of the east coast of Florida and heading north. These
two low pressure systems will coalesce of the SC coast before
deepening just off the southern NC coast. Strong SSE flow will
develop Monday morning and allow a plume of tropical moisture to
advect into the region. On and off periods of heavy rain is
expected for most of Eastern NC with the exception of the OBX
where rain will not be as heavy. There is also a marginal threat
for severe thunderstorms on Monday with CAPEs generally around
1000 J/kg and increasing wind shear.

Low pressure stalls just off the southern NC coast early Tuesday,
and pivots around the upper level low in a loop. Southerly flow
and heavy rain will continue through Tuesday afternoon, when low
pressure finally begins to move north and up the coast.

Temperatures in this period will be much cooler than recently
but still near average for April. High temps should be in the
low to mid 70s both Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Temps start to rebound again
Wednesday as the low exits to the NE and upper ridging quickly
takes its place with dry conditions developing. Low level
thicknesses and upper heights once again will rise above climo
and temps will reach into the 80s by Wednesday. Thursday into
the rest of next week suggest building heat dome across the
eastern half of the CONUS with thicknesses and heights well
above normal. This would spell another bout of very warm temps
for the area with highs 85-90 (June-like) again late week with
muggy overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Monday/
As of 200 AM Sunday...Front has pushed south of area and frontal
inversion will produce widespread lower cloudiness through TAF
period. CIGs around 1K feet will persist through this morning
with some improvement to around 1500 feet expected this
afternoon but confidence moderate at best. Will forecast high
end of IFR for all sites after 08Z but certainly possible that
inland sites remain around 1K feet. CIGs expected to lower to
IFR again this evening. Best coverage of showers will likely be
over northern sections next few hours but scattered activity
possible through TAF period. NE winds around 10 KT through the
period as well.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Sub VFR conditions appear likely through
Tuesday night with widespread heavy rain, scattered
thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Conditions improve greatly for
Wednesday and the rest of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /tonight and Sunday/...
As of 1005 PM Saturday...Gusty S/SW winds of up to 25 knots
ahead of a southward moving cold front will become N/NE later
tonight behind the front. The post frontal northerly flow is
stronger than previously forecast so have issued an advisory
for the Sounds earlier this evening. Seas are currently 4-6 feet
and will build behind the front to at least 6-8 feet later
tonight...especially over the outer waters. N/NE winds will
continue 15-25 kt Sunday with seas 5 to 8 ft. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for the Sounds and all of the coastal
waters extending into midweek as a period of unsettled and rough
marine conditions is expected.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms
appear likely through Tuesday afternoon as a deepening low
pressure system approaches the coastal waters on Monday, and
then stalls off the southern NC coast until Tuesday afternoon.

Winds and initially will be 15 to 20 knots out of the NE Sunday
night with seas 3 to 6 feet. A warm front will lift through the
coastal waters early Monday, turning winds SSE at around 15 to
20 knots. Winds will increase later Monday afternoon, to 25 to
30 knots, before peaking Monday night 30 to 35 knots with wind
gusts to 40 knots. A Gale Watch may be needed for portions of
the coastal waters as near gale force winds are expected. Seas
will respond quickly, increasing to 7-11 feet Monday night.
Seas will peak early Tuesday morning around 10-13 feet for the
central and northern waters, and 7 to 10 feet for the southern
waters. Winds on Tuesday will mostly be out of the south 15 to
25 knots, before the low pressure crosses the region Tuesday
afternoon, turning winds NW at 10 to 15 knots. Seas on Tuesday
will drop below 10 feet by late morning and become 5 to 8 feet.
Wednesday will feature NW winds 10 to 15 knots with 3 to 6 ft
seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     this evening for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ130-
     131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...JME/CTC/JBM/SGK
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/SGK



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