Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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143
FXUS62 KMHX 281356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the North and
Northeast through tonight. A weak low will approach from the
southeast Monday through midweek. A cold front is forecast to push
through the area Thursday followed by high pressure from the north
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 955 AM Sunday...No significant changes were needed with
this upodate. Satellite imagery currently indicates a retrograding
compact upper low just off the NC/SC coasts as surface high
pressure continues to extend over the area from northeast. Widely
scattered showers associated with this feature continue move along
the immediate coast early this morning. This activity is forecast
to become scattered and spread inland with diurnal heating and
will indicate 30-40% PoPs. Main threat will be locally heavy
downpours supported by PW values around 2". Highs will be slightly
cooler than previous few days with onshore flow and clouds
limiting readings to the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...No change to the pattern mentioned above
with moist onshore flow continuing over the area while a weak area
of disturbed weather (91L) retrogrades toward the coast. This will
help to maintain a chance for showers tonight with PoPs around
30%. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 AM Sun...A complicated forecast continues for the long
term period due to differences on movement and extent of tropical
activity to the south and an area of low pressure in the Western
Atlantic. A cold front will push through late in the week, with a
cooler and drier airmass building into the area.

Monday through Tuesday...00z guidance continues to show a weak
low, currently about 200 miles WSW of Bermuda, approaching the NC
coast Monday and Tuesday. Chances remain low for any tropical
development with this feature, but it is expected to bring an
increasing feed of tropical moisture to the area and better
chances of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce
heavy downpours. A sharpened precip gradient could develop with
best chances along the coastal areas, though dependent on exact
track of the low. The low is expected to weaken Tuesday night, and
lift NE becoming absorbed in the upper flow. Low level thickness
values support highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in
the 70s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Models are in better agreement that
upper troffing will develop later in the week with a cold front
pushing through the area on Thursday. This is expected to push the
lingering weak low and moisture off the coast and out of the
area...though will continue to watch closely given the continued
uncertainty and lack of run to run model consistency. Scattered
showers and tstms Wed and Thu...and will continue chance pops.
Expect a drier more comfortable air mass to move into the area
Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds north of the area
behind the front, bringing more comfortable temperatures and
lower humidity. Low level thickness values support warm temps Wed
and Thu, in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, then low to mid 80s
for Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, will fall into
the mid 60s/70 degrees Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 620 AM Sunday...IFR conditions mainly in ceilings will likely
persist through 14Z this morning. Diurnal heating is then expected
to help produce scattered showers and thunderstorms later this
morning through this evening as an upper level low off the coast
affects the area. High pressure ridging in from the North will
maintain the moist easterly flow through tonight setting the stage
for the redevelopment of low clouds and perhaps some fog again
after 6Z.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sun...Scattered to potentially numerous
showers/storms expected through at least Wednesday. This may be
exacerbated by tropical moisture streaming into the area and
potentially limiting cigs to sub-VFR at times as indicated by
model soundings. Areas of fog and stratus will be possible each
night/early morning with moist low levels and light winds. A cold
front will push through the area Thursday, with a drier airmass
building into the region late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 955 AM Sunday...no significant changes were needed with this
update. High pressure will continue ridge south into the waters
through tonight producing a Northeast to East flow over the
waters. Wind speeds have diminished to 5 to 10 KT and should
continue all waters through tonight. Seas 3 to 4 FT today will
build to 4 to 5 FT tonight in easterly swell associated with a
weak area of low pressure offshore which is forecast to retrograde
toward the coast early next week.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sun...A weak area of low pressure will approach from
the SE Monday and linger over the area through Tuesday night. Most
indications are that the area of low pressure will be quite weak
with little chance of tropical development. The main impact will
be increased moisture resulting in shower and thunderstorm
activity across the waters. Still some uncertainty regarding wind
speeds Monday and Tuesday, and will depend on track/strength of
the low. Will continue NE winds 10-20 knots Monday diminishing to
5-15 knots Tuesday. Variable winds 5-10 knots Wednesday, becoming
northerly behind the front Thursday. Long period swell of 13-16
seconds, from very distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston, will continue
to impact all coastal waters through mid week. Swell and
combination with the wind wave will build seas to 3-6 feet Monday,
and a period of SCA conditions likely, mainly south of Oregon
Inlet into Monday night. Seas will diminish to 3-5 feet Tuesday
and 2-4 feet Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...RSB/JME/CQD



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