Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231919
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
319 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.
Hurricane Maria is expected to track slowly off the east coast
early to mid next week. A cold front will cross the area late next
week. Please see the latest official forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build
south over Eastern NC tonight with mostly clear skies. Winds
west of Highway 17 could decouple which would lead to patchy fog
development late. Further east, the pressure gradient will
tighten producing a light northerly breeze inhibiting fog
formation. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s inland and low
70s beaches.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...Continued dry and warm with mostly
sunny skies Sunday as high pressure remains over the area.
Winds will increase, especially along the coast, as the
gradient between high pressure to our north and Maria off the SE
coast will be stronger. Highs again will be in the lower to
middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WILL BE HURRICANE MARIA TRACKING OFF THE COAST. THERE REMAINS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM, BUT THERE HAS
BEEN AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST. EASTERN NC RESIDENTS AND INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM NHC.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
THE REMNANTS OF JOSE WEAKENS WELL OFF THE NE COAST. EXPECT SUNDAY
NIGHT TO BE PREDOMINATELY DRY, BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AS MARIA LIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HURRICANE MARIA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. EVENTUAL
TRACK WILL BE DETERMINED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NC, WHICH WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT GETS. THERE IS SOME
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS, BUT SOME, LIKE THE GFS BRING A
STRONG MARIA CLOSER TO THE COAST.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK,
ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, AS LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS BUILD.

AT A MINIMUM, COASTAL AREAS CAN EXPECT GUSTY N/NW WINDS CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, AND OCEAN
OVERWASH/EROSION WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. AT THIS POINT CAN`T RULE OUT MORE IMPACTFUL
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND SOUND SIDE OF
THE OUTER BANKS AND OCRACOKE.  RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING VULNERABLE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST.

CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK, HIGHEST
EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEEK AIDING TO MARIA PUSHES FURTHER ENE OFFSHORE.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 108 PM Saturday...Main concern is the potential for sub
VFR conditions late tonight in fog/low clouds. Looks like winds
should decouple well inland but only briefly as the pressure
gradient tightens late. In addition moisture profiles remain
very shallow. Not seeing a strong signal in the aviation
guidance supporting sub VFR so will just include a brief 9-13Z
period of possible MVFR conditions due to low confidence but
with a nod toward persistence as we have had 3 consecutive
nights with sub VFR conditions. Any fog/low clouds should
dissipate around 13Z with VFR conditions prevailing the
remainder of the day.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY, THOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING FG/BR AND LOW STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE AS MARIA
LIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...Hurricane Maria swell will continue to
impact the NC waters through Sunday. Current 5 to 8 ft seas will
build to 6 to 10 ft overnight and 7 to 13 ft Sunday. Light
northerly winds through this evening will increase out of the
northeast overnight to 10 to 20 kts and to 15 to 25 kts (highest
southern waters) Sunday, as the gradient increases over the
waters between high pressure to our north and Maria well off the
SE coast.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WHILE HURRICANE MARIA LIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE MARIA AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A WESTWARD TREND CLOSER TO THE NC COAST AS
WELL AS CONTINUES TO SLOW IT DOWN. MARINERS AND INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS
FROM NHC. SCA CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT SUNDAY
NIGHT MON AND TUE AS MARIA LIFTS NORTHWARD, INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
KT, ON THE CUSP OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS SHOWED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS WITH ITS
WIND FIELD, BUT DID NOT BUY OFF ON THAT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLOWLY AS MARIA PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF VERY
DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS
PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 FT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS, AND COULD BE POSSIBLY
HIGHER DEPENDING ON HOW MARIA BEHAVES.

DANGEROUS HIGH SURF, AT LEAST MINOR OVERWASH, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ150-152- 154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/JME
MARINE...RSB/JME


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