Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 030911
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
511 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG TO JUST OFFSHORE AND THEN STALL AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS AREA-
WIDE AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST.
AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE MHX CWA THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AREA REMAINS IN THE MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ZONE. THINK ANY STRONG STORMS THAT RAMP
UP COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. GIVEN
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE EFFECT THAT
HAS ON ELECTRIFICATION...WOULD EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS AS WELL. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL ALSO CONTINUE INLAND. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING TONIGHT HOWEVER. WITH THE AIR BEING RAIN-COOLER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. UPPER LOW
WITH SEVERAL VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT OVER THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...TAKING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY/TROF AT THE SURFACE WITH
IT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY THEN 50% CHANCE FRIDAY.
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL ADD
IN A VCTS FOR THE KISO AND KPGV TAFS OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SOME IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
LOWER CEILINGS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON WED WITH FRONT STALLED OVER AREA AND UPR
LOW APPROACHING FROM W...AND GDNC INDICATING MVFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THURSDAY THEN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR EXCEPT IN CONVECTION
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST REMAINS RATHER SLACK THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT E/NE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING MORE SE TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN 2
TO 4 FEET WITH 7 TO 8 SECOND WAVE PERIODS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...UPPER LOW AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NO
HIGHER THAN 5-10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BACKING TO EAST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FEET...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHEN SEAS
TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 3-5 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE IN NORTHEAST
FLOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.