Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 310927
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
527 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN
INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM FRI...INCREASED POPS TO SCT TSRA ACRS NRN ALBEMARLE
AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH MORE CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT TO THE NW ADVANCING TO THE SE. OTRW
NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST.

EARLY MORN FOG/ST OTRW PTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY AND STALLS ALONG SRN
COASTAL AREAS. WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACRS THE SRN COAST AND
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN WE SHOULD SEE EXCELLENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOR SCT-NMRS CONVECTION ALONG SRN SXNS OF THE CWA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. LESSER CHCS FOR
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACRS NRN AREAS WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER...PRECIP COVERAGE...AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID TO UPR 80S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONT TO PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN TIER TONIGHT WITH MORE
ISOLD PRECIP TO THE N. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 COASTAL PLAINS AND
THE LOWER AND MID 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES N
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SOUTHERN SXNS WITH BTR PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAT THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES ALOFT.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE 31/00Z ECM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLN. WILL FOLLOW
TRENDS OF DECREASING POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS AND 20-30 PERCENT ON THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN PER HIGH LAYER MIX
RATIOS AND COLUMN PWATS AOA 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICALLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
INLAND TO 80S COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPR
70S COAST.

MONDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. BEST SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY...THEN SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY PROMOTE SCT/ISO THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY INLAND. STILL HOT AND MUGGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO 80S COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPS AS THICKNESSES AND TEMPS
BUILD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S (80S COAST). SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID WEEK AS 31/00Z GFS CONTINUES TROUGHING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WED/THU WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
BERMUDA HIGH AS MAIN FEATURE AND THERMAL TROUGHING INLAND. WILL
TREND WITH WPC/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH OFFSHORE AND
PRED S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS...THINKING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AT THIS TIME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PSBLE INTO THE EARLY MORN HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY AFFECTING OAJ AND EWN. WILL
HAVE VCTS FOR THE AFTN AFT 18Z AND VCSH AFT 00Z TNGT FOR THESE TAF
SITES.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES AT EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM FRI...MAIN CHANGE TO DROP SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY. CONT MARGINAL SCA FROM LOOKOUT N TO HAT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR 4-6 FT SEAS.

CURRENTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT COASTAL WATERS N OF HAT WITH SEAS
3-4 FEET. WINDS E-SE 5-15 KT AND SEAS LIKELY 3-6 FT ACRS THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 40 NM SE OF
CAPE LOOKOUT EARLY THIS MORN. THE LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NE OF THE
AREA TODAY. CONT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 4-6 FT SEAS S
OF HAT TO CAPE LOOKOUT INTO THE MORN HOURS. AFTER THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SRN COAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO N AROUND 10 KT OR LESS N OF OF THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN AND
CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AND BECOME SW 10 KT OR LESS ACRS THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-5 FT DURG THE AFTN HIGHEST SRN
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF THE FRONT ACRS THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO
S TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME SW THROUGHOUT TOWARD SAT
MORN HIGHEST SRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY SAT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH
THE DAY SAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS 10-15KT CONT INTO SUN. A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TUE...WITH LINGERING 6FT SEAS POSSIBLE INTO TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP



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