Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 240852
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
452 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATING SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...BERMUDA HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE
A UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS
INCREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH ISOL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
IMPROVES WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ON THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE ANALYZED ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION AND AROUND 25 KT
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE.

ISOL SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING...THEN INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE
TRIGGER MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AROUND MID DAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH
LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG WHILE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH
REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SPC HAS THE REGION THE SEE TEXT TODAY
WITH THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
LIMITING THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
1415-1420 METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SW FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
PREVENTING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS BEFORE DAWN...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR AND
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BUOY OBS SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO
NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK






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