066
FXUS62 KMHX 092228
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
628 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high
pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through
around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 PM Thursday...

On the regional surface analysis this evening, a stationary
front is draped west to east across central VA, with a broad
warm sector to the south across the Carolinas. However, moisture
quality within the warm sector is questionable due to effects
from the expansive MCS that continues to push south towards the
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The combination of questionable
moisture, a plume of drier air expanding east from the TN and OH
Valleys, and limited forcing, continues to favor limited
thunderstorm potential this evening, and I have continued to
trim back pops. A few showers have recently popped up across
southeast VA and far northeast NC, so I left in a mention of
showers/storms along the Albemarle Sound and northern OBX
vicinity. We can`t yet fully give the all clear for severe
weather, but it`s almost zero.

Lastly, the pressure gradient has tightened on the northern
periphery of influence from the MCS to our south, which appears
to be what has led to 20-30 mph wind gusts across parts of
southern sections of ENC. I upped winds for a few hours to
account for this trend, but I don`t expect these winds to last
all night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Latest obs show a diffuse seabreeze
pinned close to the coast. The forecast for the remainder of the
period has trended even drier, so PoPs have been decreased
across the board. The greatest chance for showers or
thunderstorms will be east of Highway 17, but coverage will be
isolated. The environment is still capable of supporting strong
to severe storms with gusty winds and small hail, but confidence
in them developing is low. Tonight, SW winds will be 5-10 kt
with lows in the mid/upper 60s across the FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thu...A cold front makes its final approach tomorrow.
The area should stay dry through the morning but PoPs will
begin to increase in the early afternoon. The CAMs are showing
fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms through the evening
hours, but the best environment to support strong to severe
storms will be south of Highway 70. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg,
deep layer shear around 45-50 kt, and mid-level lapse rates of
6.5-7 C/km could support strong wind gusts and hail. Highs will
reach the low 80s across the coastal plain and upper 70s along
the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As 3 PM Thu...Cold front pushes offshore Friday night with
drier and cooler weather forecast for this weekend as high
pressure ridging builds in from the south and west. More
unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed.

Friday Night...While instability will be marginal at best with
guidance suggesting somewhere around 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE
across the region, shear will remain quite potent persisting at
40-50 kts as a low and cold front move through. This may end up
promoting a few stronger to marginally severe storms into the
evening with a few stronger gusts and some small hail possible,
though given the limited instability across the region current
thinking is we may see more general thunder. Decent low level
forcing in place with a cold front developing with sfc low.

Sat and Sun...Cold front will have pushed offshore by morning
with blustery nrly winds in it`s wake in the morning. Upper
troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this weekend while a
cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region begins to push
E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave will round the
base of this troughing on Saturday before ridging finally
begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the surface low
pressure with attendant fronts will be diving SE`wards across
the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before
moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the region while
high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the south and
west. Capped precip to mostly around 10% with dry downsloping
nwrly flow. Cloud cover should mainly be over the coastal
locales, esp OBX, but may be some bkn diurnal strato cu all
areas with the cold air aloft. Highs only getting into the 70s
each day while lows dip down into the 50s each night.

Mon through mid week next week...Upper ridging finally builds
over the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as
previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks
E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed. Associated
shortwave also quickly pushes E`wards bringing our next threat
for unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes
its way E`wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains
with low pressure and its associated fronts quickly approach the
Carolinas from the south and west Tue. There remains
considerable differences in the exact timing and location of
this low next week but it is looking like this will bring our
next threat for measurable precip Tue into Wed. Went below NBM
guide due to these differences and capped pops at 50% for now.
Temps remain about avg across the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Saturday/...
As of 600 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA possible on Friday (40-60% chance)

- Sub VFR risk associated with the TSRA risk

FORECAST DETAILS

An expansive area of TSRA well to our south has helped to lower
the risk of TSRA across ENC, and I expect this trend to
continue through the night. It appears the only real chance for
a few SHRA or TSRA is in the vicinity of KFFA through about
02z/10pm tonight. Otherwise, through the evening, a plume of
drier low- mid level air is forecast to spread east across ENC,
leading to a reduced risk of low CIGs. With this TAF update,
I`ve opted to remove all low CIGs for tonight. Additionally, it
appears the drier low-level air will lead to a reduced risk of
BR/FG, and I`ll continue keeping this out of the TAFs for now.
Some shallow fog (MIFG) cannot be ruled out, but the risk of
impactful FG appears low (<20% chance). On Friday, moisture will
steadily increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the
NW. The general theme with model guidance is for an increased
chance of SHRA and TSRA. It should be noted that another large
cluster of TSRA to the south may have an impact locally on how
expansive the coverage of SHRA and TSRA is, which lowers
confidence in what the impact will be for aviation interests.
Despite the lowered confidence, there still appears to be enough
model support for a VCTS mention Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Thu... Sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Fri
in any shower or thunderstorm that impacts the region as a cold
front tracks across ENC. As we get into the weekend and beyond
expecting primarily VFR conditions into the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Latest obs show SW winds around 10-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt and seas 3-6 ft. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon/evening. The
environment is capable of supporting strong to severe storms,
but with the drying trend of the forecast through the today,
the confidence in that happening is low. SCAs continue for the
Pamlico Sound until 09Z and for the coastal waters until 12Z.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thu...Cold front will push through the region on
Fri with shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Locally
enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm
that impacts our waters. More benign weather then forecast this
weekend into early next week.

At the start of the period widespread 10-15 kt W-SW`rly winds with
gusts up around 20 kts will persist across all our waters while 3-5
ft seas will be noted along the coastal waters. As we get into the
afternoon and evening, cold front will have pushed offshore but
a wave of low pressure will have developed along this front and
have begun deepening. This will allow winds to shift from a
W-SW direction to a N-NE direction Fri afternoon and evening
from N-S with winds increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up around
25-30 kts Fri night. In response to the increased winds, seas
will build primarily north of Ocracoke to 4-6 ft once again
promoting a brief period of SCA conditions across our waters.
N`rly winds will quickly ease on Sat down to 5-10 kts with seas
along our coastal waters returning to 3-5 ft and eventually 2-4
ft Sat aftn as the front and deepening low pull further away
from our waters. More benign boating conditions are then
forecast as winds generally remain at 5-15 kts and seas at 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL/RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RCF/OJC