Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 140830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON
300 THETA SFC CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD -SHRA OVER FAR SRN CWA NEXT FEW
HOURS.  THIS WEAK FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE NOW OVER MN SWINGING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI MAINLY
THIS AFTN. MODERATE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH S/W
SPREADS ACROSS CWA FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTN.  PWAT VALUES
LINGER AROUND THREE QUARTERS INCH AS THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC
CDFNT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTN.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND
10 DEGREES SO SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY -SHRA THIS AFTN.  WL
BUMP UP NORTHERN CWA TO LIKELY WORDING AND ADD ISOLD T AS MUCAPE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 100 J.  STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE MAY
COUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLD T.

-SHRA MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS SHORT WAVE AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF SOUTHERN WI.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH AND THERMAL TROF WL LIKELY RESULT IN
INCREASING STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENE FROM LWR MI.
HOWEVER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGESTS A FEW RIPPLES TO CONTEND
WITH. ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGIME. WILL HAVE SOME
SCHC/CHC POPS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS OFF THE DAY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH AN 8C AT 925 AND THIS MODIFIES TO A 13C BY 00Z. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
HOWEVER WI REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT SHEAR ZONE RIDING THROUGH
PARTS OF NE/EC WI. MEANWHILE THE NAM/GFS NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN IS QUITE DRY WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY LOOK FAVORING THE
ECMWF QPF IN THIS REGARD.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF AND ALSO THE NAM AND GEM IN SHOWING
THE DRY SCENARIO PLAYING OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE
UPPER FLOW IS NW AND RATHER WEAK. AIRMASS IS DRY AND WITH IT BEING
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...WILL THROW OUT THE GFS QPF SCENARIO.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITION TO MORE
OF A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN. MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW
AND SHOWS MORE PRECIP AROUND THE AREA. OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS THE
HIGH TO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL WELL WEST. GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY BE WEAK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEMPER LAKESIDE TEMPS A BIT
BUT 925 TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGD TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
850 SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME 850 MILLIBAR MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WILL
STICK WITH THE CHCY ALLBLEND POPS FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE/DYNAMICAL FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SCT -SHRA WL LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES FROM LATE
MRNG THROUGH THE AFTN AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH WI. CIGS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN -SHRA. GUSTY WINDS WL ACCOMPANY ANY -SHRA.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BEHIND PASSING CDFNT.
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI TNGT AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR SETTLES OVER SRN WI ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG CDFNT WL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE MI NEAR SHORE WATERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME MORE GUSTY. THERE IS A WINDOW WHEN WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM 20Z INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW
WL HOLD OFF ON ADVY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR


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