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000
FXUS63 KMKX 180356
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KNOT
250 MB JET MAX OVER NEW YORK. THIS IS CAUSING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND REACH NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AFTER SUNRISE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FROM THIS
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF CIGS AROUND 2
THSD FT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SHOULD END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS AN UPPER JET MAX EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND REACH NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AFTER SUNRISE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FROM THIS
TONIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX IS STAYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
EAST CENTRAL WI AND A FEW HAVE BEEN SEVERE. THERE IS PLENTY OF BULK
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. WHILE THESE HAVE BEEN
RIGHT MOVERS...THEY ARE MOVING INTO THE COOLER LAKE-BREEZE AIR IN
MANITOWOC AND NORTHEAST SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES BY 430 PM.

THE SMALLER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MKX FORECAST AREA ARE NOT
BEING SUPPORTED BY THAT VORT MAX TO OUR NORTH AND ARE THEREFORE
LOWER TOPPED.

ANOTHER VORT MAX SHOULD ROLL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WI THIS EVENING PER 18Z NAM. THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY WILL BE ARRIVING AS THE SUN IS GOING DOWN
SO THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND STALL OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN IL BY MID TUE MORNING.
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROJECTED TO
ROLL ACROSS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE
CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AFTER
ANY LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE A CHANCE TO MIX OUT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NRN IL EARLY TUE EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER WI TUE NT AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE ERN
GRTLKS FOR WED AND THU. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NW. LGT SLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS WED AND THU AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS FOR THU. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THU... BUT WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS BEFORE
INTRODUCING POPS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT ENEWD INTO
CANADA...REACHING WRN ONTARIO FOR MON. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER WI FOR SAT AND THEN FLATTEN WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AFTERWARD.
AT THE SFC...SSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARM FRONT ARRIVING
FOR FRI OR FRI NT. SRN WI WILL THEN BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY FROM FRI-MON. VERY WARM TEMPS AND
HUMID...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH A FEW ON THE STRONG SIDE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA
RADARS FOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. SINCE THE NWS MKX RADAR IS
DOWN...THE MKE TERMINAL RADAR WILL BE HELPFUL...AS WELL AS
ARX...GRB...DVN AND LOT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE BACK EDGE OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND EVENTUALLY
HANGS UP ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN IL BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECTING ANY LOWER CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND
THERE SHOULD BE SUNSHINE.

MARINE....

NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH REGION
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING