Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 301924
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)...
Widely scattered showers and storms have developed across extreme
northern TN as temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s to near
90. Convection may be forming along old frontal boundary. More
isolated storms were also firing across the northern and southern
plateau...southern valley and North Carolina mountains. some brief
heavy rains...small hail and gusty winds to about 30 mph are
possible next few hours before storms end around 00-01Z tonight.
Added slightly higher pops across central and southern areas
through 00Z with activity after that only higher elevations east.
Tonight lows should fall back into the upper 50s around Tri-Cities
where air mass is slightly drier to mostly mid 60s elsewhere with
patchy fog where rain fell. Tuesday expecting less convection to
develop...mainly close to and in the eastern TN and NC mountains.
Highs similar to today mid 80s to lower 90s around CHA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...
A ridge of high pressure Tuesday night will produce a mostly dry
conditions. For Wednesday...Ridging remains...but plenty of
instability to produce convection over the terrain features...then
spread into the valley late in the day.

An upper trough moving across the northern Plains and northern Great
Lakes will pull a frontal boundary southward into Kentucky for
Thursday...then over the area for Friday.  Air-mass will be fairly
unstable with MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG. Anticipate fairly decent
coverage of storms over the region for both Thursday and Friday.
Little in the way of upper dynamics...but enough instability and
favorable thermodynamics to warrant potential of strong storms in
the HWO. Main concern will be marginal severe hail as Hail CAPES
are favorable.

For Saturday and especially Sunday...an upper trough will dig
southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Strong upper dynamics
and potentially favorable thermodynamics to warrant another
mentioning of strong to possible severe storms.

Upper trough swings east of the area for Monday with drier and
cooler conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  88  66  87 /  10  10  10  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  88  66  87 /  10  10  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  86  62  85 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD/DH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.