Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 250645
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGHER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW. CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY THAT
THE WARMING TREND OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE...REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH AND CENTRAL TO MID/UPPER 60S NORTH. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...PEAKING IN THE EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRY
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM WANTS TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE THIN MOIST LAYER AND LACK OF LIFT. TONIGHT
WILL BE MILDER WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING FROM LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WARM WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME 80S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY.
RIDGE PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD... ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TO SPREAD
PRECIP OVER THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. GFS AND ECMWF A BIT BETTER IN
LINE...SO BUMPED UP THE POPS TO INCLUDE SOME 40 AND 50 PERCENTS
WITH FROPA TUES NIGHT AND WED. TOSSED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WRAPAROUND POPS UP IN THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI.
BOTH MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH A COOL DOWN/REINFORCING FROPA
ON FRIDAY FOR A COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY TRICK OR TREATING
EVENING...WITH 5-10 MPH WINDS TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  51  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  50  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  49  72  42 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/GC



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