Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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771
FXUS65 KMSO 292024
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
224 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Low and mid level moisture will remain somewhat in abundance
throughout the Northern Rockies into Tuesday. Today this has
resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
most of which appear to be closely linked to the higher terrain
and are falling apart once they leave the mountains. These cells
should die off late this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Another round of showers/thunderstorms are likely tomorrow when
continued high moisture coupled with abundant sunshine and an
atmosphere supporting high temperatures well into the 70s and 80s
support more convection. Speaking of temperatures, it looks like
most valleys should achieve highs into the 80s with some location
(like Missoula and along the Clark Fork River) getting into the
upper 80s. Meanwhile in Idaho a few lower elevation locations near
Hells Canyon will likely eclipse 90. So be sure to stay cool and
hydrated.

High pressure is on track to transition to the east on Wednesday,
thus leaving north-central Idaho and western Montana under
southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures are forecast to be a
little cooler in Idaho on Wednesday, while most of western
Montana will have their warmest day of the week. Model guidance
are showing thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday during peak
heating of the late afternoon. Multiple shortwaves and the
approaching cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
throughout Wednesday night. The cold front should push through the
region during Thursday, providing additional shower and
thunderstorm activity, breezy winds, and temperatures much closer
to normal. Some of the thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday
could be strong and produce gusty winds and hail. Showers chances
linger into Friday.

Extended model guidance are trending toward a weak ridge for the
first half of the weekend, followed by a trough for the end of
the weekend and into early next week. So, warmer with limited
precipitation chances may transition into a much cooler and wet
weather system by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Cumulus growth off the terrain will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Continental Divide
into southwest Montana (affecting KBTM), as well as across
northwest Montana (affecting KGPI). Both of these terminals will
have the chance of seeing gusty outflow winds from slow-moving
storms through 30/0200Z. Lightning, small hail, and/or brief rain
will also be a possibility. KMSO and KSMN will not see as much
activity, but the threat for an isolated shower or storm will
exist through 30/0200Z. Thereafter, much more stable conditions
with clearing skies will occur across the entire Northern Rockies.
Expect another warm and stable day on Tuesday with lesser chances
for rain.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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