Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 290950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
350 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has briefly rebuilt over western
Montana and north central Idaho this morning, bringing an end to
showers and for the most part cloud cover. This will be short
lived however as southwest flow sets up this afternoon ahead of an
approaching upper level trough and associated cold front. The
main impact this afternoon and evening will be an increase in
southwest to west winds. Temperatures will be quite warm, likely
the warmest so far this week in many locations.

The cold front and upper level trough will swing through the
region tonight into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the cold front this evening and
tonight, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest Montana.
The biggest impact as the cold front passes Saturday will be
breezy conditions which will develop in the morning and likely
last through much of the day. Outdoor recreation could be
affected, especially for boaters on area lakes which could become
quite choppy. Another noticeable change will be a drop in
temperatures by as much as 20 degrees, lasting through the
weekend. Showery and cool will be the theme through Monday.

On Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to rebound
from the south slightly, placing the region in a westerly flow
aloft. This will allow for warmer temperatures, returning closer
to seasonal normals, and reducing shower chances.

Forecast models continue to show another lobe of the upper level
trough digging into the region Wednesday through the end of the
work week. This could lead to another period of cool, breezy
conditions, and possibly even some precipitation. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...A re-bounding ridge of high pressure this morning
should bring generally pleasant flying conditions this morning,
with only a few mid and high level clouds across the region.
Southwest flow will increase over western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon, resulting in some breezy southwest
to west winds, especially near ridge top levels. A cold front
passage tonight into Saturday morning will keep breezy conditions
into Saturday. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
ahead of and with the cold front passage, mainly across north
central Idaho into southwest Montana this evening and overnight.
Airfields KSMN and KBTM have the best potential for thunderstorms.



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