Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 302031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
231 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...While much of northwest Montana has seen more sun
than clouds and have been precipitation-free, the rest of the
region has been plagued by heavy cloud cover and periodic rain
showers. The more steady rainfall that was present this morning
across west central Montana and north central Idaho has now become
more showery in nature, and will be on-and-off throughout the
evening. High pressure will begin to build overnight, helping to
further dry conditions out. As a result of this, many locations
(especially those in the mostly-clear valleys of northwest
Montana) should anticipate temperatures potentially dipping below
freezing tonight.

But hope is on the way with high pressure forecast to build
across the region on Sunday and persist till around Tuesday. This
will bring a rather quick return to sunny conditions with above
normal temperatures. By Tuesday a slowly approaching Pacific
trough will nudge the ridge east and start a slow increase of
moisture and high clouds. A brief shower or rumble of thunder may
be possible Tuesday afternoon across central Idaho.

Southwesterly flow will develop over north central Idaho and
western Montana on Wednesday which should result in the warmest
day of this week in most places (highs 10-15 degrees above

There is an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday with a broad trough and low pressure system forecast to
move into the western US. If the forecast flow pattern holds, a
few of the thunderstorms on Thursday could become strong. The low
pressure system is likely to keep an influence on the weather in
north central Idaho and western Montana into next weekend, so more
seasonable temperatures and lingered precipitation can be planned


.AVIATION...Periodic rain showers will continue to move through
southwest and west central Montana, impacting KBTM, KMSO, and
KSMN through this evening before gradually tapering off. For northwest
Montana, including KGPI, we expect to see the least amount of
rainfall/cloud cover for this area. Fog and/or low stratus may
develop in some locations across the breadth of the Northern
Rockies, however the potential remains low at this time. If
anything, NW MT could clear out overnight and cause unseasonably
cold temperatures to occur. High pressure will then build for
Sunday onward, resulting in light winds, dry conditions, and fair
flying conditions.



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