Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 030946
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
346 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...Today will be another quite warm day with high
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday`s and near record
values.

Fourth of July, Saturday: High pressure will begin to weaken,
though high temperatures will remain very warm. Winds will
increase in the afternoon which will bring an increase in fire
danger. Wind gusts of 30 mph will be common Saturday afternoon
and evening. There will also be increased chances for
thunderstorms in portions of northwest Montana, mainly in Glacier
NP, Saturday evening and overnight. Winds will also shift to
easterly overnight with wind prone canyons and valleys, including
Clearwater Junction, Hellgate Canyon, and Bad Rock Canyon to see
stronger gusts.

Model guidance agree that cooler high temperatures are likely on
Sunday, especially in western Montana where high temperature
readings are going to be close to normal. Locations along the
divide may actually have high temperatures below normal, in the
60s and 70s. Part of the reason for the cooler temperatures, along
the divide, will be the presence of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday. Much of western Montana and eastern Idaho will have
increased shower and thunderstorm chances during Sunday, but the
best chance for any appreciable moisture will be in Glacier NP and
along the divide. Most of north central Idaho will remain hot with
little if any chance for showers.

High pressure is forecast to quickly return for Monday so
temperatures will again warm to 10 degrees above normal. Showers
and thunderstorms chances are also in the forecast for Monday
afternoon, mainly through Lemhi County, Idaho, and into southwest
Montana.

A more active weather pattern is being forecast by extended model
guidance for the second half of next week. The more active
weather pattern will allow for increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms and temperatures not quite as warm as the last 2
weeks but still slightly above normal.


&&

.AVIATION...A weak shortwave will pass through northwest Montana
today with a few cumulus build-ups possible along the divide.
Wildfire smoke will again move into KBTM this morning with some
impact to visibility through the morning. The rest of north
central Idaho and western Montana will have a few passing clouds,
very warm temperatures, and high density altitudes. Normal
afternoon winds can also be expected today.

High pressure will begin to flatten on Saturday so afternoon
winds will be stronger than previous days. There will also be a
shortwave to pass along the divide late in the day of July 4th,
that will help kick off thunderstorms along the divide, and
especially through Glacier National Park. Gusty easterly winds
will also develop through western Montana Saturday night.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East
     Lolo...Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation.

ID...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM PDT this evening Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$



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