Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 050003
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
THEN BRING A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM 24 HOURS
AGO AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO NEAR 80
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN
THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BRING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO
THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MID/LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THEY
GENERALLY AGREE IN SOME TYPE OF PATTERN CHANGE THAT WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND 8 OF THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING
DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION. UNTIL THEN...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:03 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY...WE ARE
EXPERIENCING SOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS SO WE ARE NOT RECEIVING ANY
NEW FORECAST MODEL DATA. BUT UNDER THIS PARTICULAR WEATHER PATTERN
THERE SHOULD BE NO WEATHER SURPRISES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. OTHER THAN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. OTHER THAN THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: MM

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