Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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185
FXUS63 KOAX 240439
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1139 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Main forecast concern is chances for a few isolated thunderstorms
late tonight with increasing chances as we head into the weekend.

Warm air advection will continue to increase tonight with increasing
southerly low-level flow. This could spark a few isolated
thunderstorms across our far north/northeast counties as nose of low-
level jet increases overnight. Latest CAMs seem to have a good
handle on this, with activity skirting over our northeast counties
after 06Z.

A fast moving mid-level shortwave will drift east across the region
on Friday giving yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms
as convection drifts east off the High Plains. A stronger
shortwave is progged to move across South Dakota dragging a
frontal boundary across the region Saturday into Sunday.
Confidence on exactly how this will all play out is somewhat low
but forecast consistency remains in tact.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

The weekend shortwave moving through SD will deepen as a stronger
trough moving southeast out of central Canada moves into the
states. Models eventually close this wave off and linger it across
Iowa keeping our temperatures on the cooler side into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Eastern Nebraska
is expected to remain on the western edge of surface high
pressure extending from the upper Great Lakes into the Ozark
plateau. Some mid and high clouds likely north and east of TAF
sites in area of warm advection through 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Fobert



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