Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 231151
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
651 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Looks to be a rather active weather pattern through both the short
and long term parts of the forecast despite generally dry
conditions. Winds and temperatures will be the primary concern as
a series of strong upper troughs move across the region during the
period.

The first trough was over the northern plains at 07Z with a cold
front stretching from the eastern Dakotas across northern Nebraska.
Strong northwest winds will spread across the area today behind
the front with gusts between 40 and 50 mph by this afternoon in
some spots. GFS forecast soundings show a deep adiabatic layer to
700mb allowing good momentum transfer to the surface along with
upper level winds directionaly oriented through much of the
profile. A wind advisory will be in effect for all of the forecast
area today.

The upper trough will deepen and intensify this afternoon and
tonight over the Great Lakes, then come together with the earlier
system that moved through our region this past weekend on Tuesday
over the northern Great Lakes. This will usher in a surge of
colder air with more strong winds expected on Tuesday. Wind
advisory headlines will likely be needed again across the area on
Tuesday but prefer to wait until current headlines expire before
issuing the next one. Winds will diminish tonight but still
remain rather brisk before picking up again around 12Z Tuesday as
the cold advection arrives.

Winds then diminish significantly Tuesday night with a westerly
flow bringing back some warmer temperatures for Wednesday as the
next system approaches from the northern Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Our next system arrives late Wednesday night and moves across the
region on Thursday. Very similar conditions to today will
accompany this system, with even colder air being pulled down
behind the front. Additional wind headlines are again likely on
Thursday before winds diminish Thursday night with breezy
conditions Thursday night through Friday. Temperatures Thursday
night will be near or below freezing across most of the area but
the wind is expected to be sufficient to limit frost development.
Lighter winds on Friday night will allow temperatures to fall
into the 20s resulting in a hard freeze across all of the area by
Saturday morning. The colder temperatures continue into Sunday
morning before warming to seasonal levels during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The main aviation impact during the TAF cycle will be strong
and gusty northwest winds. KOAX VAD profile showing 50kt winds
at 2K AGL, with surface winds still below 15kts at all three TAF
sites.  Will maintain LLWS through 14-15UTC, but then expect
sufficient mixing to allow surface winds to increase dramatically
with sustained winds 25-35kts and wind gusts 40kt+. Gusty surface
winds will continue through 00-01UTC, with LLWS conditions
developing again as the boundary layer decouples.

Intermittent sprinkles may be possible this morning at KOFK and
KOMA, but expect these to diminish by mid-morning.  Short range
models hinting at isolated showers along and east of the Missouri
River this evening, but due to run-to-run inconsistency in
location and timing, will keep mention out of OMA TAF for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The strong winds and dry conditions will place eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa in very high fire danger today and again on
Tuesday. The potential for extreme fire danger however, will
exist in some areas during the next couple of days depending on
development of drier surface conditions than expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Fortin
FIRE WEATHER...Fobert



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