Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 060237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ISOLATED AREAS.

WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INLAND. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC


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