Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 260908
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
508 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SEEM TO BE WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDING EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
BY MONDAY MORNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
NIGH TIME LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THRU THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER JUST EAST OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY IS DRY ONCE
AGAIN. THEN...UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. THEN TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS BELOW NORMAL LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR KISP AND KGON BEFORE 11Z. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. MAINLY DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT INTO
THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DECREASE TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION
VEERS TO WNW-NW AND REMAINS IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOME UNCERTAINTY OF 10-30 DEGREES WITH WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES
MAKING FOR A MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
CATEGORY FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LATE TONIGHT-TUE...VFR. GUSTS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS BUT EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED PARENT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
CREATING A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. OCEAN SEAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 5-7 FT AS MEASURED BY
VARIOUS BUOYS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE OCEAN SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT. THE 34-35KT
GUSTS LOOK TO BE MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE EAST OF
MORICHES INLET SO A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR THIS MARINE ZONE. FOR
OTHER WATERS...SCA WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AND
OCCASIONAL 35 KT GUSTS FOR THE OCEAN ZONE BETWEEN FIRE ISLAND INLET
AND MORICHES INLET.

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE QUIET AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT OCEAN SEAS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET...BUT FREQUENCY SEEMS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO EXTEND
SCA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RESTORE SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WINDS SHIFT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY.

SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT AND DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$






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