Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 211814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
214 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM COASTAL EASTERN NEW
JERSEY INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS COLDER TEMPS EXIST ALOFT PRESENTING STEEPER LAPSE
RATES.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE
BEYOND TWEAKING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP MORE THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND PREVAILING
-SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. SHRA/TSTM COULD PASS
THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

ESE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-19KT THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED PM THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHRA. NLY FLOW AROUND
15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-15KT. GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS
LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON WED...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6
FT WED AND WED NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS
THE OCEAN ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW








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