Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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893
FXUS61 KOKX 270224
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1024 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight and remains in place for the
weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday night and
slowly move through Monday. This front will dissipate over or just
south of the area on Tuesday. Another cold front moves through
late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the northwest tonight
behind a cold front just offshore. Minor adjustments were made to
hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on the latest trends. The
forecast is mainly on track. Still expecting a mainly clear sky
overnight. The low temperature forecast is a blend of guidance
which was in good agreement.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will produce fair weather. Despite the cold frontal
passage, high temperatures will be several degrees above average
with temperatures at 850 millibars around 16 to 17 C. Decoupling
at night however may allow some of the normally coldest outlying
locations to drop into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models continue to be in good agreement for the the long term
period. This period begins with weak surface high pressure off the
New England coast Sunday. Another sunny day for Sunday although
onshore flow will limit mixing...especially at the coast with
slightly lower max temps. Highs across urbanized NY/NY and areas N
and W should range from mid to upper 80s...with lower to mid 80s
common at the coast. Aloft, a ridge will build in while an
anticyclone is centered over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Surface cold front approaches the area late Sunday night, and slowly
moves through the region Monday as the upper level anticyclone
weakens over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. The front will be
moisture starved and looks to undergo frontolysis after it moves
through Monday night. Best chances for precipitation this week will
be with the cold fronts moving through the area, though chances
won`t be very high. The weakening cold front Monday into Tuesday
will be associated with a couple of vorticity maxes and upper level
trough. The cold front for Wednesday into Wednesday night is also
moisture starved, so the chances for precipitation will once again
not be very high. Thereafter, surface high pressure moves in through
the end of the week.

Temperatures through the week should average above normal with not
much in the way of cold air advection behind these weak fronts.
Cooler air will finally move in for Friday however, as an upper
level trough sets up over the Northeast beginning Wednesday in
association with upper level low developing over southeastern
Canada. It will also be on the humid side through much of the week,
but not oppressively so. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 at
times, but start to decrease on Thursday after the passage of the
second cold front, and continue to drop into the 50s on Friday with
as dry northwesterly sets up. In fact, went a couple of degrees
below guidance for Friday and Friday night in regards to dew points
as the models are probably overdoing the dew points with the
northwesterly set up.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves offshore overnight as high pressure builds.

Skies will be mainly clear. Wind has shifted to NW-N at all
terminals. Winds will then continue to veer around to the N-NE
overnight at less than 10 kt at all terminal locations.

Then winds veer further Saturday afternoon to the SE. Timing
differs by an hour or two depending on the location.

.Outlook for 00Z Sunday through Wednesday...
.Saturday night through Sunday...VFR.
.Monday into Monday Night...VFR. Potential cold frontal passage
with a few showers and thunderstorms.
.Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm
possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels
through the day Monday. 5 ft seas develop over the eastern ocean
zone late in the day Tuesday. The potential remains for increasing
tropical swell on the ocean Sunday through at least Tuesday. As a
result...seas could build to 5-6 ft from late Monday through
Tuesday night.

Waves come down below 5 ft for Thursday onward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP



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