Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 261955
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The summer like weather continues on Wednesday with high
pressure over the Region. A cold front will move through
Thursday, bringing seasonable temperatures across the area.
High pressure builds briefly from the west through the end of
the week. Another cold front moves through the area Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds back for the weekend and
remains through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Uncertainty is high with respect to stratus and fog development
overnight. Model soundings, NARRE-TL, HRRR-TLE, etc all suggest
fog and stratus redevelopment, but the "denseness" of the fog
and timing are not clear. Currently, the nearest stratus is in
the NY Bight. The more extensive stratus/fog is 65 NM or so
south of Fire Island and this should not advect northward
significantly overnight.

For now, we`ll be going with persistence, but realize there
will certainly be differences from what occurred this morning.

Otherwise...a mild and humid overnight.

High surf and rip current potential continues along the south
shore of Long Island. With surf height at the coast expected to
remain below the 7 FT criteria in the Rockaways - the high surf
advisory has been cancelled for the NYC beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of now, expect a very similar day on Wednesday in terms of
the erosion of stratus and the temperature trends.

Cold front passes late at night and begins the trend for a
return to seasonable temperatures.

High surf and rip current potential continues along the south
shore of Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds briefly on Thursday and Friday resulting in dry
conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and
upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday. The next chance for precipitation
will be Friday night into early Saturday as a cold front moves
across the area bringing a slight chance of showers. Highs on
Saturday will be in the mid 60s to around 70s.

High pressure builds across the area through the begin of the week
with dry weather and high temperatures generally around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weakening high pressure remains across the region through the TAF
period.

VFR through the evening. Low IFR/LIFR ceilings will return this
evening into the overnight, but there is uncertainty on how quickly
this occurs. At JFK, ISP, BDR, and GON, these low ceilings could
move in a few hours earlier than forecast. Visibilities may also
lower to IFR/MVFR with some potential for LIFR at outlying terminals
towards sunrise. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR middle
to late Wednesday morning.

Winds will continue shifting to the SE this afternoon, but remain
under 10 kt. Winds back to the ENE-NE around 5 kt at city terminals
and light and variable elsewhere overnight. Light NE winds continue
Wednesday morning.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR CIGS may return closer to sunset. Some
uncertainty in how low CIGs get overnight with potential for LIFR
late.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift to the SE may be 1-2 hours
off. IFR CIGS may return tonight earlier than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR CIGS tonight uncertain with a
chance conditions remain VFR.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR/LIFR tonight could return a few hours earlier
than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR/LIFR tonight could return a few hours earlier
than forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: IFR/LIFR could return as early as sunset.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday afternoon...VFR.
.Wednesday night...IFR/LIFR possible in stratus and fog
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 kt on Thursday.
.Friday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible in any
showers Friday night and Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Swells from Hurricane Maria will keep seas on the coastal ocean
waters at well above Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for the
next few days. Otherwise, light winds are forecast through
Wednesday night ahead of a cold front.

Lingering swell from Maria will likely allow seas to remain at SCA
levels through late week before gradually subsiding this weekend as
high pressure builds from the north. Seas remain below SCA through
for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected over the next 7
days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Tongue
NEAR TERM...Tongue
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Fig/Tongue
HYDROLOGY...Tongue



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