Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 040006 AAC
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROF REMAINS ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT
OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH. LATEST RADAR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.

HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BASED ON MODELS...LIMITED
DYNAMICS (WEAK PVA) AND MODEST AT BEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS ARE A MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY
2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80.

CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING.

RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND
LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO
OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS
SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS.

THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY
THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING ISOLATED MVFR
WITHIN FOG OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO TAFS DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF THEM. MVFR WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. CEILINGS FOR A FEW
TERMINALS COULD LOWER BELOW 2KFT AT TIMES. CEILINGS LIFT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTER OUT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING AN INCREASING
E-NE FLOW FRIDAY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEARBY AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEARBY AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEARBY AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEARBY AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEARBY AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEARBY AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN
STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST
TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/DW
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE



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