Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281433
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
933 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PVA MOVES EAST THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 30S. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MOS NUMBERS WHERE
APPROPRIATE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH FLAT NW TO SE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS...NW WINDS LIGHTEN. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...MUCH DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COLDER MAV
AND ECS NUMBERS AND WARMER MET NUMBERS. EITHER WAY...A COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH READINGS IN THE 20S AND TEENS.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXPECT ONE MORE COLD DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S AS CLOUDS PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEMS
TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH POLAR JET ENERGY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE MON...AND ANOTHER WED AFT/EVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION PRECEDES EACH SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF MIX OF FROZEN PCPN
AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE THERMO PROFILES
WARM. SUN MORNING AND TUE NIGHT ARE THE TIMES OF INTEREST. THE
LATTER IS POTENTIALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO AS IT PRECEDED
BY A TRANSIENT 1040-1045 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM
SECTOR RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE EACH COLD FRONT.

FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING TUE
FOLLOWING THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...AROUND 320 MAGNETIC...SO
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AT TIMES
COULD GO SOUTH OF 310. GUSTS END SOON AFTER SUNSET...AROUND 22Z.

BY LATE TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL BE UNDER 10 KT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH. EXPECTING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...AROUND 5 FT...INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE
OCEAN AND EASTERN SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS THROUGH
TODAY ONLY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WIND AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.

OCEAN SEAS/WINDS COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO MON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DW/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW






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