Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250537
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD AND SKY
OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TRI- STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS
INCREASE AFTER 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING AS WELL. GUSTS
20-30KT EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER ON MON THAN
TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH STRONGER...INCLUDING THE
GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET


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