Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 280426
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM OREGON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE MID/HIGH LEVEL (I.E. ABOVE 15,000 FEET). THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK
OBSERVED WAS OVER LAKEVIEW, OR AT 12,000 FEET. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS. THE
GFS OVER-DID THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER OREGON
TODAY. NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVEN TOUGHER TO ASSESS.
THE SHORT WAVE LIFT IS VERY WEAK. IF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE, THE LIFT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, IT DOESN`T LOOK
VERY LIKELY FOR ANY THUNDER. THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM DO SHOW SOME
WEAK ECHOES MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON PDT`S RADAR OVER OREGON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 20,000 FEET ON THIS AFTERNOON`S SOUNDING, I`D BE
SURPRISED IF ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE COULD REACH THE GROUND.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW. THE NEW NAM RUN HAS
US SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS ONLY
WARMS US ABOUT 2 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HEAT
ADVISORY ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. A
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        67  97  67  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
COEUR D`ALENE  62  94  61  97  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
PULLMAN        58  97  57  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
LEWISTON       69 103  69 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
COLVILLE       57  98  57 100  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
SANDPOINT      54  92  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
KELLOGG        60  92  61  93  62  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
MOSES LAKE     64 102  64 103  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      71 102  71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           64 101  65 103  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON
     AREA.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
     GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
     BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.

&&

$$


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