Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281134 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Above average confidence in the short term.

The short term forecast will continue to be dependent on the
strength and position of a dirty H5 ridge that fluctuates in
strength and position across our CWA through the period. As a
result, precipitation chances will be rather small and more diurnal
in nature with coverage mainly dependent on the location of small
scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as outflow boundaries and
differential heating.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period.
Heat index values will top out in the 100 to 105 degree range over
parts of the area this afternoon and Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level high will be situated from Texas/Oklahoma eastward
into the western Gulf Coast states, with an amplified upper ridge
extending clear up into central Canada. With time, this upper high
retrogrades westward. As this occurs, the upper flow across our area
becomes more northwesterly. Models still try to bring a weak upper
wave across the area on Wednesday. The ECMWF has been more
consistent with this feature while the GFS have never been too keen
on the idea (much weaker with the upper wave). Nevertheless, see no
real reason to stray from the low POPs we already have going for now.

Looks like dry conditions should prevail for Thursday and Friday,
unless there is a weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft that
sets off some convection. But, at the surface, high pressure will be
pressing southward into the area and drying us out quite a bit,
especially over the eastern half of the CWA, which should really
limit rain chances. In addition, we should see some relief in the
mugginess factor around here for a little while, along with a few
degree drop in temperatures.

The ECWMF indicates an upper level ridge will start building into
the area as early as Friday. The GFS eventually catches up by the
weekend with the building upper ridge and this should mean a fairly
dry holiday weekend ahead, but getting a little warmer. The GFS
ensembles also suggests dry weather from late week and into the
weekend. Even though eyes are on a possible tropical system or
hurricane approaching the Gulf coast sometime over the weekend, most
of the model solutions as of late do not take the remnants of that
system into our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys early and at the very end of the period due to
fog/stratus, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all sites.
Upper level high pressure centered over the area should preclude
most convective development, but an isolated shower or storm may
randomly pop up in the heat of the day. However, not enough
coverage to warrant putting in TAFs. Winds either calm or light
and variable through the period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP



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