Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 042007
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY. THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE VALID FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF WILL BE VALID WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE WATCH WITH A
LEAD DISTURBANCE COMING EASTWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LARGER DISTURBANCE COMING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
12Z GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED IN HOW THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT...AND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS
THE PREDOMINANT WRAPPED UP SURFACE SOLUTION...BUT IF THE LESS
AMPLIFIED GFS IS CORRECT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THERE CONTINUES TO BE POOR CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODELS DURING THE
LONG TERM. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PUSH OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH HAD LOOKED PRETTY STRONG AT
ONE POINT. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODEL
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER RECENTLY.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES DRY...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY STILL APPEAR DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN INTO THE SOUTH...WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS UP A LITTLE MORE. A 700 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE OHIO RIVER.

ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
500 MB TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF STORMS. IF THE MODELS HOLD
TRUE...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA BETWEEN KCGI/KPAH AND KEVV/KOWB. LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSRA EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT WIND SHOULD PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH SHRA/TSRA JUST BEYOND THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KYZ014-015-018>020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS



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