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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280445
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Fairly high confidence in much of the short term period with
increasing temperatures and humidity levels.

One last really pleasant day out there this afternoon with
temperatures/dewpoints generally in the upper 70s/middle 50s
respectively under mostly sunny skies. Can`t ask for much nicer
weather in late June!

Upper level flow transitions from northwest today to more of a zonal
pattern over our region on Wednesday. In time, the flow becomes more
southwest toward the end of the short term and latter part of the
week as troughing develops across the north central U.S.

At the surface, high pressure nudges east towards the mid-
atlantic coast tomorrow, while low pressure moves across the upper
Midwest in response to shortwave energy. Positioned in between,
there will be a noticeable pressure gradient increase our region
tomorrow with some wind gusts up in the 20 to 25 mph range across
our northwest counties.

An uptick in humidity will be felt tomorrow, with dewpoints
climbing back into the 60s. Southerly flow will continue feeding
higher moisture into the region with dewpoints back around 70
expected on Thursday. Temperatures will also ramp up well into the
80s, possibly touching 90 in a few spots.

Dry conditions will dominate, but wouldn`t be surprised to see
some isolated activity develop by later Thursday and particularly
Thursday night as moisture continues to slowly increase. However,
with the stronger flow north of the region, and no real trigger to
initiate convection, it seems more likely most of the region
should remain dry. Therefore, sided with leaving out mentionable
PoPs for now. Most model guidance is leaning toward the dry
solution aside from the 12z Canadian which is rather robust with
the precip by Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Models seem to be trending a bit drier for the pre-holiday weekend,
especially the 2nd half of it. It appears the most favorable time
frame for an organized convective complex will be later Friday night
into early Saturday, ahead of a weak surface front that will be
approaching and moving into the forecast area from the north. A mid
level short wave will also likely be rotating around the base of the
main H50 trof axis over the Midwest/western Great Lakes. In
addition, mid level wind fields ahead of this approaching trof will
be modestly strong for this time of year, and PW values will be near
the 99th percentile for this time of year.  While a few stronger
storms may be generated, it still appears that the main concern
would be with locally heavy rainfall due to precip efficiency.

However, once we get into the Saturday afternoon/Saturday
night/Sunday, the surface front looks to wash out over the region
and mid level flow may become a bit more west-northwest according to
ECMWF/Canadian output. This would allow for a decent break in precip
chances, especially north of the Ohio River.

Depending on the timing of another upstream 500 mb shortwave,
organized convection is possible again early next week.
Unfortunately, both the 12z operational GFS as well as the ECMWF
seem to suggest the higher shower/storm chances would come on
Tuesday /The 4th of July/. Still a long way out though, so for now
just something to keep in mind and monitor model trends. One thing
seems more certain is that quite warm and sticky conditions will
persist throughout the long term time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions are forecast. Surface high pressure will build
east of the area Wednesday allowing south winds to develop in the
morning and gust into the teens kts in the afternoon.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS