Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 071149
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THURSDAY.

AS OF 2 AM...THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FIRING UP IN EXTREME
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
FORECASTING THESE STORMS...INCLUDING THEIR TIMING AND AREAL
PLACEMENT. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SRN ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING STORMS EXIT OUR REGION...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A KMVN/KMDH/KPOF LINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRECEDE
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD BET GIVEN VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND MODERATELY STRONG
LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY
PUSH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO TENNESSEE. IN ANY CASE...PRECIP
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL SERVE TO
PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS /TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.
WPC GUIDANCE AND OFFICE GRIDDED QPF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING AROUND TWO INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A KMVN/KMDH
LINE...AS WELL AS NW OF KCGI. EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS VERY
MOIST...THESE AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS AND HWO...AND HOLD OFF ON A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD TEND TO BE
MORE SCATTERED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO EXPAND NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
OVER OUR REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY IN
ALL AREAS...AND THEN LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE
QUITE SMALL...ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR SO. IN THE AREAS OF
HIGHEST QPF AND CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MODEL PREFERENCE - A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF WITH A
MINOR INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT WEST AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW MORE
PROMINENT NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST U.S.

HAVE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH...I64 FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WE ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY...HOT HUMID WEATHER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER HIGH AND THE DRIER AIRMASS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY IT.
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION WITH
COVERAGE GENERALLY AOB 10 PERCENT. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE
CONVECTIVE POPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND
EXISTING NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE EARLY MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITED THE KPAH/KCGI
AREAS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THROUGH MID
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS.
CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS BY MIDDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY TRICKY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN...MOSTLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES
THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY



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