


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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093 FXUS63 KPAH 181727 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Almost daily storm chances will be highest this weekend during peak heating. Locally heavy rains repeating over the same areas causing flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds from an isolated stronger storm will be the primary storm hazards. - A more prolonged and increasingly dangerous heatwave is expected next week with daily heat indices of 105 to 115. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The surface boundary is still identifiable as it lays across the heart of the PAH FA. It serves as a potential focusing mechanism for updrafts to get going with diurnal heating. Satellite shows lower clouds hanging tougher on the cool side of the boundary. Storms thru the weekend will all have more or less the same ingredients of high volume moisture availability with weak overall shear, and instability may be or become high at times, most likely during peak heating. As a result, we anticipate more of the same...heavy rain potential from storms but flooding should be localized where storms repeat or hover over the same areas, esp areas that have had more rain recently. Frequent lightning and isolated gusty winds are also potential storm hazards. Pattern metamorphosis heading into and thru next week will project to us as an increasingly hot and humid time period with daily storm chances gradually diminishing toward a drier overall regime as the week wears on. This prolonged duration of high heat and humidity will ultimately need headlines, but pending completion of collaboration, it appears some whitening of its timing eyes here may be preferred at this writing. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Low bases and potential storms offer the best chances at flight terminal restrictions during the daytime. Patchy fog and low stratus bases may become a restrictive consideration again late tonight, per past nights. Winds will be generally light but could be gusty if/when a storm impacts the terminal vicinity. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ088>090- 092>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>013-016- 017-020>022. && $$