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000
FXUS63 KPAH 011244
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
744 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A pesky mid level low, with some surface reflection, will take a
northerly turn through IN today, before taking a east-
northeasterly turn tonight toward the eastern Great Lakes. This
feature will be motivated by increasing mid level ridging ahead of
vigorous trof energy entering the westernmost CONUS.

As the low begins to move away, there will still be a diurnal
westward expansion of cloudiness and scattered light shower
activity today across the PAH forecast area. Temps should peak
only in the lower 70s southwest/upper 60s northeast. Isold
lightning strikes are not out of the question in the Evansville
Tri-State region in the afternoon. Pcpn chances should wane
quickly this evening.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft and higher surface pressures will begin to
take over Sunday, yielding more sunshine, especially in the
southern half of the PAH forecast area. Some model data indicates
the possibility of an isold shower or two Sunday, mainly in the
northeast quadrant, but this was not mentioned in the forecast
(PoP below 15%) at this time. Conditions will improve more by
Monday, and afternoon temps Monday are forecast to be 8-10 degrees
warmer than today`s. Lows will remain in the 50s. Westerly winds,
generally on the light side, will go northeasterly by Monday,
limiting humidity levels.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is moderate.

Surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday night through
Tuesday and into Wednesday. The flow aloft will see weak ridging
giving way to increasing southwest flow by Wednesday. This is in
response to the approach of a large upper-level trough over the
Rockies and Plains.

The primary forecast uncertainty surrounds the eastward progress of
the upper trough and associated cold front. With Hurricane Matthew
expected to be somewhere over the Bahamas by Wednesday, ridging at
the surface and aloft will be entrenched over the southeast and up
through the entire east coast. This is typically very difficult for
storm systems in the westerlies to penetrate, and most of the
guidance does lift the core of the trough northward into Canada,
which leaves the cold front to slowly weaken as it approaches our
area.

Will focus 30-40% PoPs from southeast Missouri northeast through
southern Illinois Wednesday night through Thursday night with mostly
slight chances farther east through the area. Some thunder will be
possible, but it looks like the better winds will lag the
convection, so severe storms are not expected at this time.

The cold front may dissipate before clearing the entire area, but
the end result will be northerly winds over the entire area by the
end of the day Thursday. The upper trough will then move over the
region, as surface high pressure builds in Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will start out above normal Tuesday, and we could see
temperatures well into the 80s for highs on Wednesday. Temperatures
should trend toward normal Thursday and Friday, and eventually below
normal next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 744 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Closest to a slowly departing low pressure area, IFR cigs will be
quite widespread in the Wabash Valley until late morning,
accompanied with IFR vsbys in fog and light drizzle. MVFR or better
conditions will prevail farther to the southwest. As conditions
generally improve across the region during the day, light showers
will continue, mainly east of the MS River, with minimal/brief
reductions in vsbys in any showers that might move across an
airport. Winds will retain a westerly component below 10 kts. Pcpn
will end tonight, but fog is probable again as skies start to clear.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DB