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000
FXUS63 KPAH 122054
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

High pressure will keep the region dry and cold through tonight. On
Friday as the high scoots off to the east, the next weather system
begins to approach our region.

Models still not in the best agreement on the details associated
with the approaching system, but close enough to warrant at least
some confidence in the outcome. Expect precipitation to make its way
into the far western sections of our CWA around 15Z Friday as
freezing rain or sleet. Throughout the remainder of the day the
freezing rain/sleet chances are expected to expand to include the
northwest third of our CWA. Ice accumulations in this area are
expected to be less than one tenth of an inch. South and east of
this area precipitation will begin as rain or sleet and transition
to rain or snow in the afternoon with little to no sleet/snow
accumulation expected.

Friday night generally north and west of a line from Poplar Bluff to
Cape Girardeau Missouri to Mount Vernon to Rockport Indiana
precipitation is expected to transition to snow and/or sleet with
accumulations of 1-3 inches, especially along and north of the I-64
corridor. As a result will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for snow
and freezing precipitation for this area. See the product for more
detail. South and east of that line precipitation should be in the
form or rain or snow with little to no snow accumulation
expected.

On Saturday expect snow to linger over the northeast sections in the
morning with freezing drizzle/drizzle over the northwest third of
the CWA. Some light snow accumulations are possible over the
northeast sections Saturday morning. The fact that we keep a south
surface wind through the majority of the event continues to be a
little disturbing, since usually this has a negative effect on snow
and ice accumulation, but soundings would indicate otherwise.

Saturday night should be precipitation free as the system pulls off
well to the east and high pressure builds across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

Models are in good agreement in the extended through mid week...thus
higher than normal confidence. After Wednesday models diverge and
confidence wanes greatly.

Forecast continues on track with the extended with little changes.
Still coldest Sunday and Sunday night in the storms wake. Another
cold front is still on track for a dry passage early Tuesday. In
contrast the warmest temperatures will probably be Tuesday before
the colder air builds into the region with most areas in or
approaching 40s. This is where the confidence drops out of the
package. Both the ecmwf and the gfs agree on cold front
passage...but the GFS brings in much colder air than the ECMWF. For
this reason continued the middle of the road forecast with low
confidence and struck a happy median between the two.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

VFR conditions expected through the period. Arctic high pressure
settled over the region early this morning, and will quickly build
south of the area today. As a result, southwest winds under 10kts will
develop late this morning. At least a light south wind should
persist throughout the region tonight. No fog/freezing fog is
anticipated tonight, but with the snowpack and a modifying
airmass, cannot completely rule it out, especially at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Friday to Noon CST Saturday
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>089.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Friday to Noon CST Saturday
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>109.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Friday to Noon CST Saturday
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH