Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020246
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
COMING IN EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE 32. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESPOND. EXPECT THAT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVING PUSHED AS FAR TO
THE NORTH AS THEY WILL. WITH SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE PENNSYLVANIA WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED DROPPING THE ADVISORY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THIS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. A
CALL TO GARRETT COUNTY DOT YIELDED THE REPORT OF SEVERAL
PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WITH MODEL PROFILES FOR OAKLAND SHOWING
MULTIPLE HOURS OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE
A THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN
WORKING INTO PRESTON COUNTY...BUT WITH THIS ONLY AFFECTING A SMALL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY...DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THAT
COUNTY.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO...AND AS THE FRONT
CROSSES OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AT ALL
LOCATIONS. ADDNL SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD MON AS THE UPR TROF AXIS
CROSSES AND STRONG COLD ADVCTN SETS UP. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SET UP
AS WELL...BUT MSTR THINS QUICKLY IN THE SNW GROWTH RGN WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ARND A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE
RIDGES. USED A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH CLOUDS BREAKING SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. QUIET AND COLD
TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR. IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AND SNOW WILL REMAIN FOR KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN WILL REDEVELOP. COLD
AIR WRAPS IN QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH A WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ040-041.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
     016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>023-073-074.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






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