Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110111
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
911 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND THE PA/WV/MD RIDGES. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL FADE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH
STARTS TO APPROACH. EXPECTING VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AS
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BROACH CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS. WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV TEMPS.

MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT...EXPECT THAT IT
WILL TAKE SOME ELEVATION TO REALIZE MODEST INSTABILITY AND FIRE
SHRA DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG
THE RIDGES.  GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT E FRI NGT AND SAT WITH SRLY FLOW DVLPG.
SEVERAL SHRTWVS WL CROSS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY RGN SAT NGT AND
SUN WITH SHWR AND TSTM CHCS RTNG AS MOISTURE AND INSTBY INCR.
TRENDED POPS UPWD BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ADVNG WAVES
KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL CONT AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
CROSSES THE RGN AHD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT. THE FNT WILL FINALLY
CROSS THE AREA TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN BLD IN THRU THU UNDER A
GT LKS UPR TROF WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
SKIES CLEAR. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH SPOTS
LIKE MGW...FKL...AND DUJ COULD REACH LIFR. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13-14Z WITH SCT VFR CU ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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