Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT...INHIBITING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.