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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
821 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS WL BE RETAINED IN THE OVRNGT FORECAST AS BROAD
UPR LOW PRES CNTRD OVR THE LOWER OH VALLEY SLIDES EWD. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED OVR MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECIALLY OVR
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT WHERE EVE RAIN WAS FOCUSED NR INVERTED
TROF/WASHED OUT FRONT. FOG MENTION WAS THUS ADDED FOR THE TNGT
AND EARLY SUNDAY PROGNOSIS.

SIMILAR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV
CONTS TO SLOWLY DIG EWD. I.E. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWR/TSTM CHCS
MAINLY S OF I 80. TEMPS WL REMAIN ABV SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPR LVL SHRTWV WL CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...PUSHING E OF
THE AREA MON NGT. EXP SHWRS/TSTM CHCS TO CONT...ESP IN THE AFTN
AND ERLY EVE DURING BEST PERIOD OF INSTAB. TEMPS EXPD TO BE WELL
ABV SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWR/TSTM CHCS WL CONT INTO WED. BEST
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY IS EXPD TO BE N OF THE AREA ALG A SFC BOUNDARY.
THE NEXT CDFNT IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU INTO THU NGT CONTG
THE SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRES WL BUILD IN AFT FROPA. MUCH ABV AVG
TEMPS ARE EXPD TO FALL TO SEASONAL LVLS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS CONTG THIS EVE AS SCT SHWRS/TSTMS S OF PIT HAVE DMNSHD.
EXP VFR STRATOCU TO DVLP OVRNGT AT MOST SITES...ALTHOUGH DUJ
SHOULD SEE MVFR DVLPG LT TNGT. IFR IS PSBL ESP AT DUJ...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS WL HAPPEN. MGW RCVD TSTMS THIS EVE...SO EXPTG THEM
TO DROP TO IFR VSBY IN BR OVRNGT. VFR STRATOCU EXPD TO CONT INTO
SUN...AND DUJ/MGW SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT MRNG. A SLOW
MOVG UPR WAVE WL BRING SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS ESP SUN AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY TSTMS SUN SO ONLY MENTIONED
VCSH ATTM.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WL BRING PERIODIC SHWR/TSTM CHCS THRU THE PD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office