Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 271745
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperature and the
possibility for an isolated shower until this evening. Wednesday
looks dry, before showers, storms, and warmer temperatures
return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were needed for the mid afternoon update. Cumulus
and isolated showers under cold upper troughing will fade this
evening as temperature falls under convective thresholds. Overnight
temperatures were persistently forecast about 12 degrees under
the averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will build over the region on Wednesday and temperature
will recover to near average with insolation and increased warm
advection.

Cloud coverage will increase Wednesday night ahead of an
approaching shortwave in increasingly zonal flow. The mid-level
disturbance will be over the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon
which will likely lead to the development of showers and storms.
Have included PoPs on Thursday, generally north of PIT, with
likely PoPs over the far north.

Temperatures on Thursday will continue to trend up, and winds
will be gusty out of the southwest as the pressure gradient
tightens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models are in general agreement in development of a Mississippi
Valley to Eastern CONUS trough this weekend, although actual
amplitude and shortwaves-in-flow continue detail and timing
discrepancies. The POPS and temperature forecasts are thus
close to climo as per a blend of guidance.

&&

Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperatures and the
possibility for an isolated shower or two north of interstate
80 today. Dry Wednesday, before showers, storms, and warmer
temperatures return Thursday and Friday.

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will predominate. A crossing shortwave trough will support
scattered afternoon showers mainly N of PIT. Otherwise, cumulus
and gusty west wind will diminish as evening temperature falls
below convective thresholds.

.OUTLOOK...
Restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the
week with the approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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