Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261345
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
945 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the
passage of cold front today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A late morning update was issued to further adjust precip
probabilty based on the latest radar and high res model trends.

A deepening trough over the Great Lakes will pull a cold front
across the Upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center
has maintained the risk for some marginally severe storms with
limitations imposed by warming mid levels/questionable
instability, which are offsetting an increasing wind field and
resulting deep layer shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with
warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes
low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal
averages.

The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the
Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into
more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of
chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is
improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift
northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the
Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with
seasonal temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will give way to condition deterioration this afternoon as a
cold front sweeps across area terminals. General MVFR is anticipated
with the feature, with IFR visibility in heavier convective activity.
As mixing improves today, expect gusts of 15 to 20 kts, with higher
values in any aforementioned convection.

Improvement can be expected through the evening as subsidence and
dry advection erode clouds and precip. Sufficient wind to prevent
fog is anticipated overnight, with VFR continuing through Tuesday.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for restriction is expected Wednesday as upper
level low pressure settles over the area.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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