Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 040520 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA PINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  90  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  92  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  62  94  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  59  88  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  93  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  87  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  46  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  51  82 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  53  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  65  88  60  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ611-639>641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



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