Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 060244
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move northeast across the region
tomorrow into tomorrow night. With high temperatures mainly in the
40s, most of the forecast area will see rain. However as colder
air moves in across the north, the Pocono area will see a mix and
change over to snow. Some light accumulation is possible. A large
low pressure system moving slowly across the Great Lakes into New
England will send a cold front, and more seasonal temperatures across
the region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will be over the region throughout the night.
However, high clouds will increase out ahead of a low pressure in
the gulf states this evening into the Overnight. Lows will
generally be in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures, dewpoints and sky
cover were adjusted to match current metar obs and satellite data
with the evening updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Tue, an area of low pres will eject out of the Glfmex and move
newd twd the Mid-Atlc. This low will bring another round of precip
to the area from sw to ne. Precip will begin durg the mrng s and
hold off until late aftn n. Most locations will see all rain.
However, nrn and wrn sections (especially the Poconos) cud see
some mixed/wintry precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the storm system continues across the region into Tuesday
night, cold air will filter in across the Poconos bringing a
likely change over to snow. Accumulation of around 2 inches is
possible, mainly across the far northern counties. All precipitation
will move east of the forecast area early Wednesday morning.

Mild conditions will continue through much of Thursday, with
colder air overspreading the region Thursday night. This will
bring a more winter-like airmass with highs mainly in the 30s and
lows in the lower to mid 20s expected.

Medium range models differ at the end of the long term. The GFS
suggests strong moisture return ahead of an approaching cold
front. Will introduce slight chance pops late Sunday into Monday
for now.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

 VFR conditions are now expected for the remainder of the night
and Tuesday morning. However, high clouds will increase.

clouds will gradually lower throughout the day Tuesday with
celings and visibilities falling into the MVFR range as rain
develops from southwest to northeast between 19 and 21z.
Conditions in the IFR range are possible tomorrow night.

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less gradually shifting from
northwest to east overnight and during the day Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...
Conditions will rapidly improve to VFR Wednesday morning and
continue predominantly VFR through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
The prev issued SCA will remain in effect as issued for Tue.  Prior
to that, no marine flags are anticipated.  Seas and wind will
increase.

&&

OUTLOOK...
Seas on Wednesday are currently expected around five feet but
lower below five feet for the remainder of the week. Northerly
wind gusts near 20 knots are expected Wednesday decreasing on
Thursday. Northwesterly wind gusts are likely to increase above
25 knots for Friday and Saturday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
     night for ANZ431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Gaines/Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Runyan
Aviation...AMC/Gaines/Nierenberg/Runyan
Marine...Gaines/Nierenberg


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.