Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240137
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
937 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very weak front will move off the Delmarva tonight. High
pressure will build over the area later tonight and through the
day Sunday. A weak cold front will cross the region Monday. High
pressure will return for the middle part of the week. Another
front may affect the area Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Except for a lone thunderstorm moving south through Talbot and
Caroline counties on the eastern shore, most of the action seen
earlier this evening has moved off the coast as a surface trough
moves east. temperatures behind this trough remain warm...but with
dropping dewpoints, lower relative humidities will make conditions
feel better. Expect most of the overnight hours to be rain-free,
with lows in the mid-70s in the south, and mid 60s in the north.

The Heat Advisory expired at 8 PM. Another Heat Advisory is in
effect for Monday, with a break on Sunday due to lower relative
humidities and slightly lower air temperatures. The Excessive
Heat Warning continues until 600 PM Monday for the urban corridor
around Philadelphia. Low temperatures overnight are expected to
range from the mid 60s in northeast PA and northwest NJ to mid 70s
in the urban areas and the coastal plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The cold front will move south of the area by morning. The airmass
will be only slightly cooler behind the front. In northeast PA and
northwest NJ, where CAA is a bit more robust high temperatures will
be about 3-5 degrees lower than today. Farther south, expect only a
1-3 degree difference between tomorrow and today. However, drier air
will works its way into the region behind the cold front, so it
shouldn`t be too humid outside of the southern DE and adjacent
eastern MD (where dewpoints will still be around 70F).

Forecast soundings show a subsidence inversion that should cap
convection with us located underneath the ridge. The forecast was
kept dry accordingly. Winds will be light and variable through the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No huge changes foreseen in the summer-like pattern with upper
heights remaining high across much of the U.S. The storm track will
be across southern Canada with short waves and weak low pressure
systems moving across the area. The weakening cold fronts associated
with these features will cross the area thru the week. The best chc
for showers and tstms will center around both Mon and Thu. We have
kept pops in the chc range for these periods with mostly dry or slgt
chc pops for other periods. The exact timing will depend on the
individual waves which the models have difficult resolving by the
end of the extended period. Pretty much all of the major models have
precip somewhere across the area Monday. SPC has a marginal risk for
SVR storms across much of area then.

The above normal temperatures will continue thru much of the week.
Monday will likely be the hottest day with readings in the mid/upper
90s and heat index values in the 100s. The temperatures and dew
points will be lower for Tue and Wed, but still in the
uncomfortable/marginally unsafe range with heat index values 95-100
over the urban areas.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Predominately VFR thru Sunday. Some patchy fog may develop across
mainly the southern portions of the area later tonight, especially
if any precipitation falls at any of the terminals.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight. Winds AOB 10 kt on
Sunday.

outlook...
VFR much of the time. Scattered (mostly) late afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms may limit cigs/vsbys at times
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be light tonight and Sunday with high pressure building
in.

Medium-period sly swells will persist today and tomorrow. Wave
heights should subside in the  2-3 ft range through the remainder of
the weekend.

outlook...
Mostly a period of sub-sca conditions expected. scattered showers
and thunderstorms will create locally higher winds and seas
through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures today through Thursday are below.


Site    23rd       24th      25th      26th       27th       28th
----    ----       ----      ----      ----       ----       ----

PHL...  101-2011   98-2011   96-1899   101-1892   101-1940   100-1941

ABE...   99-1955   95-1999   95-1999   98-1940     98-1955    97-1949

ACY...  105-2011  100-2011   99-2010   96-2011     99-2005    98-1999

ILG...  100-2011   98-2011   96-1987   99-1894    100-1894   101-1894

TTN...  104-2011   98-1910   97-1999   99-1892    100-1894   101-1894

GED...  104-2011   99-2011   99-2010   97-2012     98-2005    99-1949

RDG...  100-2011   96-2010   96-1999   99-1940     98-1955    99-1941

MPO...   91-1955   91-1914   90-1999   89-1949     91-1955    93-1949

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for PAZ060>062-101-
     103-105.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ007>010-
     012>014-016-020>027.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for DEZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Miketta
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Klein/Miketta/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/Miketta/O`Hara
Climate...Staff


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