Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 242054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
154 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Snow has tapered to
light amounts most areas. Gusty conditions continue in portions of
the region, mainly along Divide and along I-84 in Cassia county.
Will expire headlines a few hours early. Northerly flow will now
be the dominating factor in weather the next few days. Some light
showers remain possible mainly through Thursday as remaining
significant spoke of upper low shifts south of the state. Most of
these showers likely under influence of weak dynamics aloft in
association with lingering low level moisture and stratus within
favored snow growth temperature zone. Surface temperatures slowly
drop, though guidance differs as to how much, likely a factor in
how much cloud cover each expects. Have kept overall snow amounts
very light for the next few days, and blended temps toward the
colder guidance. This puts an increased portion of the region
under threat of sub zero lows by Fri morning. DMH

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday. Dry and stable conditions
will prevail under upper ridging through much of the weekend. Main
concerns will be overnight fog that may develop and the potential
for deteriorating air quality. Models in agreement on progression
and intensity of ridge as it builds into the Pacific Northwest By
Saturday night. GFS drops some energy down from a weak shortwave
extending from western Montana, and may bring slight PoPs to the
Island Park area, but ECMWF is the drier solution with only some
enhanced cloud cover. GFS is also a wetter solution for Tuesday
night while the ECMWF places moisture along the Canadian border.


.AVIATION...Fluctuating CIG/VIS categories expected through the
afternoon as snow event comes to a close. Statistical guidance
suggests continued low-level ceilings in a saturated boundary layer.
Snow should abate at the terminals by this evening. Hinsberger


.AIR STAGNATION...High pressure ridging will advance across the area
starting Friday. This should lead to clear skies and strengthen the
low-level inversion which, in turn, will lead to deteriorating air
quality. Ridging will be present through the weekend into early next
week. Hinsberger



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