Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230937
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
337 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPERS SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO RETURN ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
CONTINUED. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THERE MAY BE A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IF A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP OUR AREA...WE COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IN THE EVENT OUR AREA SEES CONSIDERABLE
RAIN...LOOK FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF FLOODING WITH RAIN FALLING ON
SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WYATT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP THE W COAST UPPER TROF INTO A SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TO SE CO BY SUN MORN...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO WA. PRECIP
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT SAT NIGHT AND
SUN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE HIGH. THE UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD SUN NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
WEST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE DIVIDE ON MON AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. THE RIDGE HOLDS THRU WED...RESULTING IN
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE RIDGE
PLACEMENT ON WED. THE ECM KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE W COAST STATES...
WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EITHER SCENARIO LEADS
TO BASICALLY THE SAME OUTCOME. HEDGES


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...AND MAY SHOW UP AT KSUN
TODAY. STRONG SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVE HOURS
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$







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