Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 050442
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
242 PM CHST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT NEEDED RAINFALL TO ROTA
YESTERDAY IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
WITHIN THE MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND VAD
WIND PROFILE SHOW MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
WITH PROMINENT CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD WEST OF THE MARIANAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE
NOTABLE CHANGE FROM WEEKS PAST IS THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE AND MORE CONVECTIVE-LIKE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID 70S AND ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNAR
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PRESENT
OVER THE REGION BRINGING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK OVER THE
MARIANAS. AS SUCH...KEPT MODERATE INTENSITY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
BUILDING OF SEAS AND SURF BY AROUND 1 FOOT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO NEAR MAJURO. A DISTURBANCE EAST
OF TARAWA CENTERED AT ABOUT 2N176E IS CAUSING SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST
OF 6N173E. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER AT KOSRAE...POHNPEI...AND CHUUK.
THE CONVERGENT WINDS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO
THIS EVENING...AND GFS MODEL INDICATES THEY WILL HELP SPREAD SHOWERY
WEATHER TOWARD KOSRAE ON FRIDAY...TO POHNPEI STATE BY SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY TO CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF TARAWA
COULD ALSO DRIFT TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS ALONG WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVING FROM ACROSS THE DATE LINE AND HELP
SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR 10N.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER EASTERN MICRONESIA
ABOVE.

DRY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS YAP AND KOROR TODAY...BUT TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH OF KOROR TO FAR SOUTHEAST OF YAP. MODELS ARE INDICATING
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA IN THE COMING DAYS AND HELP ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWEST TOWARD KOROR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
AND POSSIBLY TOWARD YAP STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.