Area Forecast Discussion
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461
FXPQ60 PGUM 130620
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
420 PM CHST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS AND A
SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE SHEAR LINE WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT WILL
LESSEN AND SO WILL THE WINDS. WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE PREDICTED TO BE
15 TO 20 MPH. THE PROXIMATE OF THE THE SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. AS THE SHEAR LINE
DETERIORATES SO WILL THE CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE WEEK
SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 TO 11 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A NORTH SWELL OF FIVE FEET WILL COMBINE WITH
THE EAST SWELL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BR HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF POHNPEI
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN. THE
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD MAJURO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AT MAJURO TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES WESTWARD...KOSRAE WILL LIKELY SEE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FOR POHNPEI...BUT THE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK IF IT LASTS THAT LONG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. ALSO...HIGH SURF WILL
PERSIST AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE A FEW MORE DAYS...AND SURF SHOULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS AT MAJURO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WITH THE SHEAR LINE REMAINING UP NORTH...FAIRLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING NOW
AT KOROR AND SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY FOR YAP...BUT HAZARDOUS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT CHUUK. AT
THE SAME TIME...HIGH SURF SHOULD END ON SUNDAY FOR KOROR AND
YAP...BUT WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AT CHUUK.
MEANWHILE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/MIDDLEBROOKE



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