Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 051951
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS
TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHAN-HOM IS OVER 200 MILES AWAY FROM GUAM AND MOVING AWAY. CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. WITH THE
GROUND SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BROUGHT BY CHAN-HOM. ANY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY.

VAD WIND DATA SHOWED WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 2KFT. OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST.
EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUST AFTER SUNRISE AS
WINDS MIX TO THE GROUND. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT. WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ON AND OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY DATA SHOWED A NORTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. WINDS GENERATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS PUSHING WAVES IN THIS DIRECTION GENERATING A SOUTHWEST SWELL.
THE BUOY DATA INDICATED SEAS OF 10 TO 11 FEET THIS MORNING. THE
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG
WEST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS. MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHWEST SWELL HIGH
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED
TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO COVER THIS. THE EAST AND NORTH SWELL
HAS DECREASED.

SEAS WILL BE 10 TO 13 FEET TODAY DECREASING TONIGHT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR CHUUK STATE
THROUGH TODAY AT LEAST. SATELLITE SHOWS TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
MOVING ACROSS ENEWETAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...REMAINING NORTH OF POHNPEI AND
CHUUK. OTHERWISE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE THAT NANGKA AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MONSOON TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY RE-
DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LONGER TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
MICRONESIA.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA ABOVE BECAUSE OF
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THIS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CHAN-NOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE MARIANA ISLANDS...WELL NORTH OF YAP. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS YAP STATE AND THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU IN THE COMING DAYS. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF
CONVERGENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS YAP STATE THIS MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA...AND SEA
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR YAP STATE AND POSSIBLY BECOME
HAZARDOUS FOR PALAU IN THE COMING DAYS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN SHIFT TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS WEEK.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001-002.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT



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