Area Forecast Discussion
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955
FXPQ60 PGUM 290618
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
418 PM CHST SUN MAY 29 2016

.Synopsis...

VAD wind profile and observations across the Marianas this
afternoon show southeast winds around 10 kt. Visible satellite and
radar imagery shows mostly sunny skies and dry weather over the
Mariana Islands...but isolated showers offshore to the northwest
of Guam and Rota.

&&

.Discussion...

Southeast winds were just a bit stronger today than yesterday and
enough to keep convection displaced northwest of the island.
Heavy showers fired up this afternoon but were 10 to 20 miles
northwest of Guam. The forecast remains largely unchanged...but
did add isolated afternoon thunderstorms for Guam on Monday.
Models show a little less moisture in the area Monday...but a
drop in winds could help convection develop over the island or
just offshore. Little change expected through the week as a ridge
remains wedged in across the Marianas.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...

A trade-wind disturbance developing over the Marshall Islands is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Majuro area. Models indicate the disturbance will drift westward
with some showers developing for Kosrae through the next day or
two and possibly for Pohnpei by Tuesday. GFS indicates a few
welcome showers will also spread across far Northern Marshall
Islands as this week progresses. A pattern of trade-wind
convergence may persist across Eastern Micronesia and help trigger
a few more showers next week. Majuro/Kalo Buoy shows combined seas
around 6 FT including a small southerly component.

&&

.Western Micronesia...

A disturbance is far southwest of Chuuk while dry weather prevails
for Chuuk...Yap and Koror areas. Models indicate the disturbance
southwest of Chuuk will drift westward and trigger a few showers
near Koror by late Tuesday or Wednesday. For Yap...only passing
trade-wind showers are expected through the next several days.

For Chuuk...dry weather will continue until a disturbance with a
few showers possibly arrives from the east Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.GUM Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

M. Aydlett/Simpson



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