Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 071025
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 AM PST SUN FEB  7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND MON. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED...THEN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH THREAT OF RAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WEAK WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL PIVOT UP AND ACROSS BRIT COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH THE SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME
NW OREGON...WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES N OF A TILLAMOOK TO PORTLAND
LINE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS REGION THIS AM. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH MUCH LESS CLOUDS SUN NIGHT...SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS REFORM OVER INTERIOR...MAINLY IN COWLITZ AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS. BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY FOG FREE... AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG
COLUMBIA RIVER.

WITH RIDGE MORE STRONG OVER REGION ON MON AND TUE... SHOULD SEE
MILDER TEMPERATURES UNDER MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW.  MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RATHER WARM...RUNNING
AROUND 15 TO 18 DEG C. IF FULLY REALIZED...THIS COULD PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S IN THE COASTAL STRIP...COAST
RANGE AND FOOTHILLS. BUT NOT FULLY CONVINCED...AS THINK MODELS
RUNNING BIT TOO WARM. WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES FURTHER INLAND MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT PROB
ONLY GETTING THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR AREAS WHERE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...SUCH AS IN FAR SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE
COWLITZ VALLEY. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE MONDAY...AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON WED...OFFSHORE FLOW MUCH WEAKER. AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR THREAT OF RAIN ON THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THREAT OF RAIN LIKELY TO INCREASE WED EVENING AS REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.  AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL
BRING AN CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS MAINLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MON MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO
35 KT NEAR THE WEST END OF THE GORGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE REGION. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED
TO BRING INCREASING S WIND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 FT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER
PERIOD WEST SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE
NEXT WEEK. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODYA ON OUTER NORTH COASTAL
 WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD AND
 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
 CONDITIONS UNTIL 6 AM TODAY...AND AGAIN 2 PM TO 6 PM
 TODAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


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