Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 292140 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NEAR NEWPORT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE... DRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. BIT WARMER ON TUE...BUT WILL SEE MUCH WARMER WEATHER LATER
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL SITS
OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND IS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THOUGH THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES OVER NW OREGON...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ON THE OREGON
COAST INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE.

AS MARINE LAYER COOLS TONIGHT...WILL SEE STRATUS PUSH BACK ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. NOT A LOT OF ONSHORE FLOW...BUT MORE THAN HAVE SEEN IN
PAST 3 OR 4 DAYS. SO WILL SEE REPEAT OF MON AM AGAIN ON TUE...WITH
PATCHY OR AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

AFTER ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...WILL HAVE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TUE...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEG ABOVE THOSE FROM MON AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. STILL COOL ON
THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

ON WED...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH 850
TEMPS WARMING A BIT MORE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH INLAND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...PERHAPS BIT MORE       ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 90S IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL SQUASH DOWN THE RIDGE SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING TO NEAR 100
INLAND. THIS TROUGH COULD ALSO BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MID-60S ON THESE DAYS. IN THE CASCADES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COOLER.      -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INLAND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MARINE
STRATUS MAY PUSH INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS COULD BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-16Z.
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR MARINE
STRATUS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF CLEARING THROUGH AROUND 04Z. LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KONP AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS BETWEEN
10 TO 16Z.
&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
TURN TO THE NW TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL LOW BUILDS OVER S OREGON.
THIS WILL BRING A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. COMBINED SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 7 FT LATE TUE...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
COULD BRING A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TUE AND WED ON ALL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


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