Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190552
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

With drier air over the area today, little in the way of pcpn is
expected this afternoon and evening.  The models continue to show
the potential for some isolated showers/tstms over the mtns,
although the HRRR also shows a few drifting out over the lower
elevations of El Paso and Pueblo counties this evening.

With the upper level ridge being over the area on Sat, the chances
for pcpn still look quite limited. The forecast models show isolated
pcpn over the mtns in the afternoon. However, a weak disturbance
in the flow aloft, is expected to move across southern CO in the
afternoon and the NAM and GFS show it kicking off some pcpn across
mainly the far southeast plains. Temps on Sat are expected to be
a little above average acrs the southeast plains, with highs close
to average in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Saturday night-Monday...Generally weak westerly flow aloft expected
across the region into early next week, as upper level high pressure
persists across the southern High Plains through the Desert
Southwest. Models continue to suggest a slow increase in available
moisture across the area, first moving into southwestern Colorado
Sunday and into eastern Colorado on Monday. With that said, should
see a slow increase in afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms into the early next week, with storms generally
diminishing and ending with the loss of solar heating. The best
coverage of storms will be over and near the higher terrain,
especially the southwestern mountains on Sunday, and all of the
southern mountains on Monday.

Some model differences for Sunday night and Monday, as the EC has a
minor wave undercutting the ridge across the southern Rockies,
possibly aiding in keeping showers and storms ongoing across the
southern Rockies, and spreading mid and high level clouds across
eastern Colorado through the day on Monday. The GFS spreads the
moisture further east through early Monday morning, where as the NAM
is somewhere in between. Time will tell. Temperatures through this
period to be generally at to slightly above late summer levels.

Tuesday-Friday...There looks to be a continued increasing in showers
and storms through the rest of next week, as upper high builds
across the Rockies. This will allow for monsoonal moisture to
increase across the area within weak south to southwesterly flow
aloft, leading to better coverage of afternoon and evening showers
and storms. With the increased moisture and weak steering flow
aloft, storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
owning to an increase in flash flooding potential as well. With the
increase in convection, temperatures are expected cool to slightly
below seasonal levels through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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