Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Dry northwest flow will continue across the area through the short
term.  With lee troffing overnight, expect min temperatures to stay
up in the lower 40s along the lower eastern slopes with mainly 30s
elsewhere and 20s for the cooler trapping valleys and higher peaks.
There will be periodic bouts of high cloudiness through the night,
but overall skies will be mostly clear.

Passing trof well to the north will send a dry cold front through
the southeast plains on Monday which will backdoor into the I-25
corridor during the afternoon.  This will shave a few degrees off
high temperatures tomorrow across the plains...though mixing may
offset cooling some across the far southeast plains where highs
should still manage to climb into the 60s. Meanwhile western
mountains and valleys will see slightly warmer temperatures with
breezy northwest winds mixing down along the valley edges during the
afternoon. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

No changes to the forecast thinking with the same model
differences for Thursday into Friday. One thing is certain, colder
air is on the way along with a chance for winter precipitation.

Monday night through Wednesday...broad northwest flow will prevail
across Colorado through mid week. Expect dry conditions across the
region with no precipitation. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cool
with generally 60s for highs across the Plains. Increased mixing
on Wednesday will lead to warmer conditions with mid to upper 70s
for highs. In addition, relative humidity values will fall into
the teens, and there could be gusty winds, especially near the New
Mexico border, producing near critical fire weather conditions.
This will need to be monitored.

Thursday through upper trough is forecast to drop
south across Colorado on Thursday. This will send a strong cold
front south across the Plains by the afternoon. Operational model
solutions are still showing forecast differences. The GFS is very
quick with the system, moving it east by Friday morning. Its also
trended warmer an drier. It brings a quick shot of snowfall behind
the front to the Eastern Mountains, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa,
while keeping most of the Plains dry. The ECMWF is still the
deeper and slower solution. It remains colder, with better upslope
flow around the deeper system over the Four Corners region. The
ECMWF solution would bring better chances for snow for the whole
area through Friday, before the system moves off to the east.
Temperatures will be much cooler, with 60s on Thursday, and highs
on Friday in the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows Friday night will
likely fall into the teens across the Plains.

Saturday through Sunday...broad northerly flow will move over
Colorado for the weekend with dry conditions expected to prevail.
The northerly flow will help keep things cool with 50s and 60s for
highs, and overnight lows in the 20s.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions expected at the terminals with light winds following
diurnal patterns tonight.  Cold front drops through the plains
during the morning with brief gusts up to 20 kts possible for KCOS
and KPUB in the morning.  Winds will quickly shift around from the
east during the afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.  KALS will see
generally light and variable winds through the period. -KT&&



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