Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 310450
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1050 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday (Issued at 125 PM MDT)

Upper low spinning over Nrn MT attm and will move ewd into Ern ND by
the end of this period. Initial cold front pushed south thru our nrn
zones earlier today with gusty north wind. Johnson County was
stabilized behind the first front and is just now trying to warm
up enough to get some instability going. Temp/dp is still marginal
but there appears to be a couple hour window late this aftn for a
round of tstms before temps start falling again. Could see a
couple stronger storms across the nrn and ern zones for a few
hours yet. Otherwise, potential of some lingering clouds
overnight east of the divide with second frontal surge with possible
cigs in the 040-060 range. Front will likely push swwd into the Red
Desert and then run out of steam in the Srn Upper Green. a few light
showers or sprinkles may linger into the early morning hours in the
central and ern zones along the mid level front/forcing area and
brief upslope. Otherwise...system begins to move off to the east on
Tuesday with a few lingering showers in the far nern zones and
possibly in the central mtns (Absarokas/Wind Rivers). Otherwise, dry
with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s lower elevations and 40s to
mid 50s in the high country.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night THROUGH Monday

A drier northwest flow will develop over the state Tuesday to help
keep shower activity generally confined to the northern mountains.
This dry period will generally persist through Wednesday, when some
weak moisture may bring back a few showers and thunderstorms over
the western mountains. High pressure over the desert southwest will
help to return dry conditions Thursday afternoon, though a wave
moving through Montana may flatten the ridge over the state
resulting in a slightly more moist zonal flow.

The high pressure over the desert southwest will amplify Friday
morning and afternoon with generally dry conditions anticipated into
next weekend. A few pop-up showers will be possible over the western
mountains at times, but widespread shower activity is not
anticipated.

Conditions will try to change on Sunday as an area of low pressure
moves over northern California and heads east-northeast. This system
will push additional moisture and instability over the state, with a
return of showers and thunderstorms over the western mountains and
valleys by Sunday afternoon and evening. Models attempt to show the
low pressure losing some muster as it rides along the strong area of
high pressure, but models do diverge on this solution, with some
models demonstrating the low pressure moving more slowly through the
desert southwest.

Overall, the warming trend will continue and strengthen under the
influence of the high pressure. Central and eastern basins will see
temperatures in the 80s by Thursday, with these warming temperatures
persisting through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Routes

VFR conditions at the terminal sites through Tuesday night.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND Routes

Isolated rain showers overnight ending by 12z. Local MVFR cigs will
occur overnight. Will keep low VFR cigs at some of the terminal
forecasts through 15z. Isolated showers or storms will form along
the east slopes of the Absaroka, Wind River, and Bighorn mountains
after 18z and drift southeast over the adjacent lower elevations
through 03z Wed. Expect gusty wind near storms and partial mountain
obscuration. Will keep the VCSH at KCOD terminal site for Tue
afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger will remain low as green-up and seasonally cool
temperatures with elevated humidity levels continue across most of
Wyoming through Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
linger into the evening east of the divide as an upper level
disturbance and a couple of cold fronts move across the region.
Better chances for measurable rain will occur across northern
Wyoming. Wednesday through Friday will herald in the beginning of a
warming/drying trend with high temperatures reaching into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week. Winds through the end of the week
will largely remain at or below 15 mph for all locations.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...Branham
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS



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