Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 031140
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks from the midwest to overhead through tonight.
An upper low across Mexico will shift to the lower Mississippi
Valley into early next week. Several disturbances ahead of this
feature will bring periodic chances of mainly rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 308 am EST Saturday...

Overall forecast has not changed too much from what we mentioned 24
hours ago. Will see a little more dense cirrus/cirrostratus at times
this morning across the foothills/piedmont of NC/Southern VA per
upper pattern and ongoing orographic effects. Will see the upslope
clouds in the west start to slowly erode through the day.

A piece of shortwave energy will eject from the upper low over
Mexico today and move into our area late tonight with increasing
moisture and isentropic lift. At the surface, high pressure will
shift from the midwest this morning to over our area tonight.

Will see dry weather today, with still temps running about 5 degrees
below normal, except colder in WV where clouds will linger here
longer. Highs will run from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the
far western slopes of WV, far Southwest VA, to lower to mid 40s
elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, with upper 40s to lower 50s
Roanoke and points east.

Tonight will cloud up fast ahead of shortwave. Expect to see some
light precipitation work into the NC mountains with ptype questions
remaining. Also due to position of high pressure will lower pops a
little from previous and confidence not high that much qpf will
occur given the sfc high and dry air in place. Still models support
some wintry mix at the start. Soundings suggest mainly potential for
snow, maybe sleet, and rain. Temperatures will be around freezing
and do not see much impact if any for winter accumulation. Cannot
rule out a dusting on the higher ridges like Mt. Rogers and Beech
Mtn. Expect it to remain dry north and east of a Bluefield-Pulaski-
Stuart-Stoneville line.

Lows tonight will be somewhat warmer given more clouds with mid to
upper 20s in the Alleghanys and WV Greenbrier Mountains, to lower to
mid 30s elsewhere. As precip falls into drier air some areas could
drop cooler, mainly south of Bluefield to Floyd.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EST Saturday...

Progressive and moist upper pattern will bring several chances for
precipitation into early next week. On Sunday, high pressure at the
surface will be sliding off to our east which sets up good isentropic
lift along a frontal boundary a some pieces of short wave energy flow
in our direction from the Gulf coast with a more vigorous northern
stream short wave shearing off to our north. This will spread a chance
of precipitation across the region from the southeast on Sunday
especially for northwest North Carolina into the Mountain Empire of
Virginia. Some wintry precipitation may also mix in west of the Blue
Ridge but no accumulation is expected.

By Monday high pressure will build into the Ohio valley and push the
front to the east, giving us a generally dry day. However, the high
will continue to build into New England and form a strong wedge down
the east slopes of the Appalachians by Monday night as a low pressure
system moves northeast out of the lower Mississippi valley. This system
will be supported by remnant short wave energy from a closed low
ejecting out of the southwest US along with substantial isentropic
lift. This good dynamic support will bring a soaking rain to the region
late Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will fluctuate through the period with readings below
normal on Sunday, above normal on Monday, then back below normal in the
cool moist wedge on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 336 PM EST Friday...

A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday. Behind this
front conditions will be windy and very cold with upslope snow showers
west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures going into next weekend will
be in the 20s across the mountains and 30s east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Saturday...

Overall appear will see MVFR cigs across BLF/LWB til midday-early
afternoon before lifting/scattering to VFR. A bit of high clouds
will be prevalent in the piedmont through midday.

Tonight, moisture increases ahead of an upper impulse. Appears
will see mainly VFR cigs in the 6-12kft ranger overnight, though
should see some cigs start to approach MVFR near the VA/NC border
by 12z with light wintry mix possible.

Extended aviation discussion...

A couple of pieces of upper energy will combine with low level
moisture increase to generate precip....mainly rain Sunday.
Appears some MVFR is likely in the mountains but mainly VFR east.
A break in the rain into Monday may allow for some VFR with sub-
VFR returning late Monday night ahead of low pressure moving into
the Tennessee Valley with widespread rains expected into Tuesday.

Expect a bit of improvement after Tuesday as front moves offshore
with another front entering from the west, with mainly VFR
expected then though some MVFR cigs into BLF/LWB possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AL/WP



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