Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 250112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
912 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

High pressure will build over the southeastern United States
resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the

As of 855 PM EDT Tuesday...

High based cumulus per moisture seen around 7h off the evening
RNK sounding should continue to fade with loss of heating making
for a mainly clear and comfortable overnight under high pressure.
However with better cooling in the valleys to near saturation, and
slightly higher dewpoints out east would expect another round of
at least patchy fog in spots by daybreak. This also supported by
forecast fog stability values off latest guidance so beefing up
coverage a bit more. Otherwise should again be a rather cool
overnight with lows mainly low/mid 50s, except a few 40s in the
valleys and outlying spots east of the mountains.

Previous discussion as of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move
away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently
building over the southeastern CONUS. Rising heights/thicknesses
will result in warming temperatures surface/aloft, a considerable
change to the cloudy cool of recent past.

The near term forecast will feature mainly clear skies
tonight, and generally fair weather for Wednesday. Debris
cloudiness from showers/storms over the mid-MS valley is forecast
to drift east over the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, so
expecting a bit more in the way of mid/upper level cloudiness as
we transition into mid week. Can`t rule out an afternoon shower
in the far west Wednesday, but day as a whole is expected to be
mainly dry.


As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...

Little change in weather pattern is expected Thursday and Friday
with ridge of high pressure overhead, and surface high pressure
centered over the southeast United States. Winds aloft will be out
of the west with 85H temps testing +16 deg C. This, along with
increasing dewpoints, will result in warm days and mild nights,
temperatures climbing into the 80s for highs, lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

On Thursday there`s an upper level disturbance which is forecast
to pass to our northwest. This short-wave will likely provide
enough lift for scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms mainly coinciding with the peak heating part of the
day. By Friday, the aforementioned disturbance will have exited
the region, support for showers waning as subsidence from high
pressure aloft dominating.


As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Longer range models are converging on a solution which suggests
there will be a tropical sort of storm system develop off the
southeast Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday. If this occurs
then forecast challenge will be focused around timing and track of
this feature which could bring clouds/rain to our forecast area as
early as Sunday. On a positive note, this feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across our area, so the
longer it takes to make land-fall the better the chance to
salvage our holiday weekend in terms of fair weather. The beach
forecast on the other hand is not looking too great. Anyone
planning to get an early jump on the summer beech season will
likely get a rude awakening. Regardless of the outcome, sun or
clouds, temperatures should be mild with highs in the 70s to lower
80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.


As of 735 pm edt Tuesday...

High pressure will settle over the region overnight. It`s axis
will start to shift east on Wednesday. Moisture will be on the
increase across western parts of the region by the afternoon
hours. Primarily VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow
afternoon. The exception will be some valley fog late tonight
between roughly KBCB and KLWB. Winds will be light or calm
overnight. By late morning Wednesday, a southwest or west wind of
5 to 10kts is forecast.

Extended discussion...

As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.




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