Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 241709
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES. THINNER AND HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.


AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...RCS



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