Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER WISE...NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. IS NOT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...AS TRADE
WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 09/20Z...ACROSS THE U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TAF SITES AFTER 09/23Z. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS ARE STARTING
TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING AROUND 2
FEET. IN ADDITION...THE SWELLS ACTION IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PEAKING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  88  73  88 /  30  30  10  20
STT  74  86  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHWEST.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD
     TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

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