Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 230120
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
920 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE / NEAR TERM...A seasonal weather pattern will continue
to prevail across the local isles during the next few days as
the convergent side of a developing mid to upper level trough
prevails across the area. Therefore, expect a few passing showers
across the USVI and eastern Puerto Rico at times as well as
locally induced showers/thunderstorms each afternoon across the
western interior of the island.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites
through the forecast period. Light and variable winds
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas generally 3 to5 feet and winds around 15 knots.
Tranquil marine conditions are expected to prevail much of the
week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2017/

SYNOPSIS...A relatively dry and stable weather pattern will prevail
across the forecast area as an upper level ridge will continue as
the main weather feature across the region until at least Monday.
An upper trough northeast of the region is expected to sink
southward over the Lesser Antilles by midweek increasing the
moisture across the local islands.

SHORT TERM...A fair and stable weather pattern is forecast to
prevail across the region the next couple of days. There is still
a chance for locally and diurnally induced afternoon showers each
day, mainly over the western portions of Puerto Rico.

LONG TERM...An upper level low/trough northeast of the region is expected to
sink southward toward the Leeward Antilles on Tuesday and Wednesday.This
feature will result in a gradual increase in moisture across the region
by midweek. However, at this moment not significant or widespread precipitation
is expected. A tropical wave is expected to reach the region Friday
generating a better chance of showers and thunderstorms through next
weekend.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across all terminals
throughout the forecast period. E-SE winds of 10-15KT diminishing
below 10KT after 23/00z. Some brief passing SHRA near the TJSJ,
TISX, TIST terminals possible overnight into the early morning
hours. Winds increasing once again above 10-15KT after 23/14z with
sea breeze variations developing.

MARINE...Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution
mainly across the Caribbean waters as seas will be up to 6 feet
and winds above the 20 knots. The Atlantic waters seas will be up
to 5 feet with winds up to 15 knots.Low to moderate rip current
risk across all the local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  87  75  88 /  30  30  20  20
STT  77  87  76  88 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...OM
LONG TERM....OM


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