Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 192137
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER UTAH
THROUGH TOMORROW. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF AN EXITING TROUGH HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION TO ISOLATED CELLS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE UP A BIT FROM HIGHS
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHOVED EASTWARD BY A CLOSED LOW NUDGING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW...ENCOURAGING AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

MOISTURE STREAMS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AS THE LOW PLOWS TOWARD
UTAH...EMBRACING MOST OF THE CWA WITH PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS PERSIST IN SHOWING THIS LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NRN UT ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL
TAKE A DIVE OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES STATEWIDE...DROPPING FURTHER IN
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO POSITION ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRIEFLY DISCOURAGE MIDWEEK AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY BOUNCE ABOVE CLIMO BY WEDNESDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS STILL AGREE ON THE LOOMING APPROACH OF A LONG WAVE
PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...FORECAST TO DELIVER
STRONG WINDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE DISPARATE IN IMPACT
TIMING AND EXTENT OF COOLING THUS FAR...WITH THE LATEST EC LESS
CHILLING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL UNTIL AROUND 03Z THEN TURN SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT LATER. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED DRYING
TREND...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING
RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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