Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301107
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
507 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure extends from the southern Rockies into
southern California. Moisture rotating around this ridge will
remain across the region through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thru 06Z Wednesday)...The mid level ridge extends
from the southern Rockies to srn Ca early this morning and
moisture has spread around this ridge to cover all but the far
nern CWA. A weak short wave trof is noted in mean layer streamline
analysis over srn Ut and this is supported by fairly extensive
cloud cover stretching across the central and srn mtns ewd across
sern Ut. The motion of the scattered weak echoes on radar also
delineate this trof.

Expect scattered showers associated with this trof to persist
over the east thru the morning while isolated storms generated by
daytime heating look to develop over the remainder of the area by
noon. The weak trof is moving out of the CWA by mid aftn with a
trailing portion lingering over the far se. This should serve to
limit convection somewhat in its wake altho it will not eliminate
it.

Temps should get hot again across the north as cloud cover should
not be a factor til later in the aftn. Models indicate another
weak wave crosses the CWA overnight tonight and expect this to
keep convection active through the night.

There is less upper support for convection on Sun but the
moisture remains in place and terrain based development is
expected. Temps should finally dip a bit across the north.

The mid level ridge extends wwd across srn Ca and into
the ern Pac on Sun as well and this starts to allow westerlies
over the nrn CWA to start drying out. This will result in less
convection on Mon over the north and allow temps to tick back
upwards again. Another weak wave crosses the CWA on Tue with a
little better coverage of convection.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z Wednesday)...A Pacific Northwest trough
passing well north of the area is expected to bring a weak frontal
boundary through northern Utah Tuesday night/early Wednesday. As
a result, maxes over northern Utah are expected to drop up to 5F
between Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will temporarily allow
drier air to move into northern Utah. However, EC/GFS both
indicate the flow becoming more southerly by Thursday, allowing
moisture to rebound. Because of this, have left scattered
afternoon POPs in for southern and eastern portions of the
forecast area for much of the upcoming week. Latest GFS indicates
drier air moving in from the west for the upcoming weekend, but
the drier air is slower to come in the 00Z ECMWF with a more
southerly flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture is spreading across the fire
district this morning. This moisture will combine with a shortwave
moving across southern Utah to allow convection to develop by
late morning. Coverage of convection will become scattered for
most locations this afternoon with daytime heating. Storms will be
generally high based, and any that develop have the potential to
produce lightning in little rainfall as well as gusty outflow
winds. Because of this, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for all
portions of the district where fuels are critically dry. Some
drier air will move into northwest Utah tomorrow, but a moist
airmass will remain in place across the rest of the district
through early next week. However, moisture should reach the lower
levels by Sunday, so storms will be more wet in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions throughout
the day. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the northwest
between 18Z and 20Z. There is a 20 percent chance this shift will
occur later than expected. There is a 30 percent chance that
showers developing in the vicinity of the terminal this afternoon
will produce periods of gusty and/or erratic winds.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-493-495-
     497-498.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 3 AM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ478>484-488-489.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Wilensky/Traphagan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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