Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
556 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...AN UPPER TROF LAYS NE-SW ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING SWWD THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CA COAST AND OFF INTO THE PAC.

A STRENGTHENING JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS TROF HAS BEEN
GENERATING INCREASING LIFT ACROSS AZ WITH PRECIP FILLING IN UNDER
IT. THIS JET TAKES AIM AT SRN UT THRU THE DAY AS THE SRN END OF
THE WEST COAST TROF PIVOTS EWD BACKING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF TO MORE SLY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN UT BY LATE TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT REACHING ALL BUT FAR NWRN UT
BY MON MORNING. THE CA LOW THEN EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NV AND INTO WRN
UT DURING THE DAY MON KEEPING PRECIP WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA.

THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5500 WEST TO 6500 FT EAST AND
REMAINING AT ABOUT THIS LEVEL INTO EARLY MON. THIS IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PUT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER SWRN VALLEYS BY THIS AFTN AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL UT. THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW
ABOVE MOST OF THE ERN VALLEYS EXCEPT THE PRICE AREA.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO MOST WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE MON
AS THE REMAINS OF THE CA UPPER TROF ARRIVES WITH A REINFORCING
COLD TROF FROM THE NORTH CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE KEEPING SNOW
GOING IN THE NWRN VALLEYS AND MOST MTNS.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE MTNS THRU TUE
AFTN AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN MTNS FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUE. ISSUED NEW ADVISORIES FOR SWRN VALLEYS AND
S-CENTRAL UT ABV 5500 FT THRU MON EVE AND EXTENDED THE PRICE AREA
THROUGH THE SAME TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VALLEY ADVISORIES MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND W-CENTRAL UT FOR MON
AFTN INTO TUE.

THINK THAT OTHER ERN VALLEYS SHOULD STAY RAIN UNTIL THE FLOW VEERS
TO WLY AND THEN PRECIP WOULD BECOME SHOWERY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UINTA BASIN COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MON HOWEVER
AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THIS AREA TOO.

PRECIP TURNS SHOWERY TUE AFTN AS THE FINAL COLD TROF SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE LAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD BEHIND IT AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LATEST GFS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT TO CURB THE
WARMING TREND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH DAY 7...AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS
INDICATED THE SAME THING. THEREFORE...AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID CURB THE
WARMING TREND A BIT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 6000 FT AGL BUT WILL
OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL THRU ABOUT 18-19Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BE OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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