Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 271610
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
910 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the northern Sierra
through Monday. Very warm weather expected through the middle of
next week. Breezy north winds later today and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California remains under northwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough over
the Pacific Northwest. Skies are mostly clear across the region
under this dry flow, and even the Bay Area stratus coverage is
less than yesterday. Temperatures across the forecast area are
running up to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Heights and thicknesses will increase a bit over yesterday as the
eastern Pacific ridge builds eastward. High temperatures will warm
a bit accordingly, with highs expected in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees in the Valley today, and 60s to lower 80s over the
mountains. Slight warming is expected through the weekend, with
peak temperatures expected on Memorial Day when the Valley could
reach the mid to upper 90s.

Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible over the higher
Sierra the next several days. A weak upper low will form over
Central and Southern California on Saturday, which could increase
coverage of thunderstorms. Otherwise, forcing and instability will
be relatively limited.

Dang

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

High pressure ridging over NorCal on Tuesday will make it the
warmest day next week. Valley highs will peak in the mid to upper
90s with higher terrain in the 70s and 80s...about 8 to 13 degrees
above normal.

After Tuesday, temperatures will still be above normal, but they
will gradually cool as the ridge axis moves eastward. Daytime
highs will drop by a couple degrees each day through Thursday.

The ECMWF and GFS both show a large low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska that will be offshore from the West Coast Thursday
and Friday. Not much confidence in the low moving inland by Friday
so have kept the forecast dry.
JBB

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. A few afternoon and evening showers south of highway 88
along the Sierra crest today. Northerly mid morning to mid
afternoon gusts 15 to 20 kts are possible in the Northern
Sacramento Valley...KRDD and KRBL vicinity.
JBB
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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