Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 272019
AFDTAE

FXUS62 KTAE DDHHMM
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY GIVEN WEAKER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE LACK OF A CLEAR FOCUSING MECHANISM...BUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

THE WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FILL,
AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
THIS DRIER AIR WILL SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE ALBANY
AND TALLAHASSEE, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT (HIGHEST
WEST) THURSDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL AID IN SWEAT EVAPORATION, MAKING IT FEEL A
BIT MORE COMFORTABLE.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF AR LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THIS CYCLONE. THE INCREASE
IN Q-G FORCING, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO AT LEAST AVERAGE PRECIP
WATER VALUES AND MLCAPE, WILL BRING OUR POPS BACK TO CLIMO LEVELS
(30-50 PERCENT) EACH AFTERNOON LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THEIR CLIMO VALUES, WITH LOWS
NEAR 70 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL
CAUSE TEMPORARY GUSTY WINDS AND DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WHERE THEY OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE
THE STORMS DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL TEND TO
BE A BIT STRONGER AND FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHTER AND
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIR MASS ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
WILL ONE...AID IN SUPPRESSING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE TWO...LOWERING EASTERN TWO THIRD FORECAST AREA
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. A BACKGROUND LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY DAY
WIND....POSSIBLY DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT WHILE
VEERING NEAR THE COAST TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY PER THE INLAND
ADVANCING BREEZE. OVERNIGHT INLAND INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING DEPTHS
TO THE HUNDREDS OF FEET...BREAKING BY 9 AM AND REACHING NEAR 6
THOUSAND FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF TUESDAY EVENING SHOWED A RATHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF 1 TO 3 IN VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL. THERE WERE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
IN. THIS LARGE VOLUME OF RAIN HAS CAUSED SOME SHARP RISES IN SOME
OF THE PANHANDLE RIVERS. WHILE MOST RIVERS WERE WELL BELOW THEIR
ACTION STAGE, MOSSY HEAD HAS RECENTLY REACHED ITS ACTION STAGE.
FORTUNATELY, AFTER TODAY, MUCH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
GIVE THE RIVERS TIME TO SUBSIDE BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  90  67  90  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PANAMA CITY   71  84  71  84  71 /  20  40  10  20  10
DOTHAN        69  87  67  89  67 /  40  40  20  20  10
ALBANY        68  90  66  90  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      68  90  64  89  66 /  10  10   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    66  90  63  90  66 /  10  10   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  72  85  70  85  71 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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