Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 171914
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
314 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging will remain in place across our area through the
rest of today and tonight. Ample moisture remains present across our
area with dewpoints in the mid 70s and PWAT values around 2", and as
a result scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed
early this afternoon. Expect best chances to remain confined to
northern FL as the sea breeze remains pinned relatively close to the
Gulf Coast due to light northwesterly flow. Only isolated showers
and thunderstorms are expected across SE Alabama and SW Georgia,
where little to no forcing will be present. Heat indices will remain
in the low-mid 100s across much of our area this afternoon through
the early evening with temperatures in the lower-mid 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s. Lows will be in the mid-upper 70s overnight
across most of our area, and near 80 along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The local area will be sandwiched between a northern stream trough
moving through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and a TUTT moving
through the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a frontal boundary
associated with the northern stream trough will slide into the
Southeast and eventually bisect the Tri-State region from
northeast to southwest by Saturday. Rain chances will be higher
than the past couple of days, with storms forced along the front
and along a more active land/seabreeze where the TUTT can assist
with synoptic lift. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with
heat indices between 100-105.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Upper level ridging will dominate through Tuesday, with the
surface front gradually dying in place over the region through
Monday. Thus, with plentiful moisture and a surface focus, expect
near to above average PoPs to start the week. Convection may not
be extremely robust due to some dry air above 700mb, but certainly
shower activity at a minimum should be expected. A shortwave
moving through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will deepen the
eastern CONUS trough by midweek, keeping rain chances elevated to
end the period. The tropics remain active and uncertain, but the
potential exists for at least some tropical moisture to spread
into the Gulf early next week. Pay close attention to the tropical
forecast over the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the period
across our area. Brief exceptions could occur at ECP and possibly
TLH late this afternoon into the early evening, when scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop. Any remaining showers/storms
should dissipate by sunset, with VFR conditions expected overnight
through Friday morning.


&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days.
The best chance for rain will be between midnight and noon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and storms are expected each day. Although minor flooding
could occur in urban and poor drainage areas, widespread flooding
is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  94  76  92  75 /  10  60  30  60  20
Panama City   80  91  80  89  80 /  10  40  30  50  20
Dothan        76  94  75  92  75 /  10  50  30  30  10
Albany        76  94  75  92  75 /  10  50  30  40  10
Valdosta      75  93  75  92  74 /  10  50  20  60  30
Cross City    77  91  75  92  75 /  20  60  30  40  20
Apalachicola  78  90  79  89  78 /  10  40  30  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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