Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230539
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
139 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Saturday] Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected to spread
inland from the coast through the early morning hours with patchy
IFR conditions possible. By mid-morning, most terminals are
expected to be low end VFR under a scattered to broken cloud deck.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [911 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

WV imagery shows ribbons of drier air feeding into the mid levels of
TD Cindy, which was near the central LA-TX border at 18Z. This drier
air mixing in will keep showers and thunderstorms more isolated
locally, with the highest chances in southeast AL. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Mid level high anchored off the Atlantic coast will be the
dominant mid level feature through Friday night at which time this
high will elongate and be replaced by an approaching mid level
trough. This trough will support a surface cold front which will
be entering our northern CWA counties by Sunday morning.
Below climatological rain chances are expected Friday with
slightly higher chances across the northern sections Saturday (SE
AL and adjacent SW GA counties) with the approach of the trough
and cold front. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
for highs and in the lower to mid 70s for lows.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Will maintain a blend of the current models and close to the
previous forecast as models continue to be split on how far the
cold front will penetrate into or through the CWA and dry air
moving in from the north. Deep layer trough will be the dominant
mid level feature through Wednesday then be replaced by a mid
level high for Thursday. Rain chances will be around
climatological averages until mid week. Highs will be in the 80s
and lows through the 70s.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will gradually subside from east to west tonight.
However, moderate south swells will continue into Friday. A return
to low winds and seas is expected by this weekend as a surface
ridge develops across the marine area.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall associated with TS Cindy has come to an end with generally
4 to 6 inches of rain across portions of SE Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle with lesser values further east into South Central Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend.

Some of the faster responding rivers in the Panhandle, like the
Shoal River are cresting this afternoon just below flood stage.
Modest rises continue in the Pea/Chochtawhatchee Basin in SE Alabama
and expect rises to just below flood stage further down the basin
into the Florida Panhandle into early next week as water from
Southern Alabama arrives.

In South Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, only small rises have
occurred and are continuing with nearly all locations remaining
below flood stage. Only exception is the Sopchoppy River where
heavier rains fell in the coastal basin of this river. The river
will crest about 2 feet below flood stage early this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  73  92  73  89 /  20  10  10  10  40
Panama City   87  76  86  75  85 /  20  10  10  20  40
Dothan        91  73  90  72  85 /  20  10  50  50  40
Albany        92  73  91  73  87 /  30  10  40  50  40
Valdosta      92  72  92  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
Cross City    91  72  91  73  90 /  10  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  87  75  87  75  86 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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