Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270137
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An amplified long wave pattern exists across the CONUS this evening.
Ridges are parked over the Bahamas and off the West Coast with a
trough over the Rockies. The forecast area is in a zone of
southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure is centered
over North Carolina with light easterly flow along the Gulf Coast on
the southern periphery of the ridge. There will be a gradual
increase in cirrus overnight. Temps will not drop as low as last
night with most inland areas bottoming out in the 40s. Coastal areas
will hold in the 50s. Parts of south central GA and the eastern FL
Big Bend could see some fog around sunrise.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] VFR conditions should prevail for the most
part. However, we do expect a period of MVFR at VLD during the
pre-dawn hours. TLH may also see brief reductions. Some scattered
showers could work into the DHN area tomorrow afternoon. There
doesn not appear to be sufficient instability to mention an thunder.

&&

.Marine...
We nudged seas up a foot across the western waters this evening
based on buoy obs. With fairly weak high pressure ridging
initially centered off to our east, generally light to moderate
onshore flow with low seas will dominate the coastal waters for
the first half of the upcoming week. Beyond this current forecast,
however, a significant tightening of the pressure pattern may
occur by the middle and end of next week, which may cause some
sharp rises in winds and seas.

&&

.Prev Discussion [309 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The deep layer ridging will initially be stubborn to move east
and we backed off a bit on the rain chances for Saturday and
Saturday night. PoPs will be tapered likely northwest to silent
10% southeast both periods. For Sunday and Sunday night as the
cold front enters our western zones, we will see scattered showers
and thunderstorms spreading east impacting the entire CWA. This
system certainly is not as robust as the one earlier in the week
with QPF amounts generally under one inch. Temps will be well
above normal through the weekend, with highs on Saturday ranging
from the middle 60s over SE AL to the middle 70s over the SE FL
Big Bend. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s across
the entire region with lows Saturday night in the mid 50s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Rain chances will end from west to east on Monday as the cold
front pushes through. Then, we should see dry weather with
seasonal temperatures at least through Wednesday before rain
begins to spread into the local region ahead of the next
developing low pressure system on New Year`s day and Friday. With
increasing cloud cover and a continuation of offshore flow, temps
will be below seasonal levels Thursday with highs mainly in the
mid to upper 50s. Veering flow ahead of the cold front on Friday
will bring temps back to near normal.


.Fire Weather...
Recent heavy rainfall in combination with a disturbed pattern in
the forecast will wash out fire weather concerns through the
period. Low mixing heights and transport winds will result in very
low dispersion indices on Saturday. Dispersion will increase
substantially for Sunday as both mixing heights and transport
winds increase.


.Hydrology...
Primary focus over the next 48 hours will be monitoring the flood
wave moving through the Ochlockonee River as well as the crest
moving through the Withlacoochee System.

In the Ochlockonee River, the crest wave is in between Thomasville
and Concord with Concord likely to crest in the next 18 hours about
1.5 feet below major flood stage. Downstream at the Havana gauge, a
crest just below major flood stage is anticipated.
Due to increased inflows into Lake Talquin, operations there will
require additional releases at the dam which will result in flood
stages being approached again at Bloxham and at Smith Creek.

For the Withlacoochee System, around 20k cfs is working its way down
the Little River, which will result in high end minor flooding
around Hahira and downstream near the confluence with the
Withlacoochee. Elevated flows from the Withlacoochee will result in
moderate flooding below Valdosta at the US-84 gauge. Further
downstream, the Withlacoochee will continue to rise at Pinetta, but
should remain in the action stage category.

Elsewhere across the region, the Choctawhatchee River will crest
later tonight at Caryville with rises on Bruce to continue into
early next week, all in the minor flood category.

The next storm system looks to deliver up to 1 inch of rain on
Sunday night into Monday. This shouldn`t have significant impacts on
area rivers, aside from slowing the rate of recession briefly.

For the most up to date information, please visit:
http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  71  55  77  60 /   0  10  10  20  40
Panama City   50  69  59  76  61 /  10  30  10  20  40
Dothan        43  65  56  76  56 /   0  50  50  40  50
Albany        41  68  53  77  58 /   0  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      44  70  56  77  61 /   0  10  10  10  30
Cross City    47  76  57  79  61 /   0  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  52  67  59  73  63 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY/GOULD/WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





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