Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 050553
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
153 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. However, northwest winds will be gusty today behind a
cold front. Gusts around 25 knots are expected starting late this
morning and lasting until around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [831 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Deep upper low digging towards the Southern Appalachians this
evening will push a cold front across the forecast area overnight.
A southward moving line of showers is currently associated with
the front across northern Georgia and Alabama. Large-scale
guidance indicates that the forcing associated with the upper low
and front will weaken through the evening hours, with the line of
showers weakening as well. However, strong disturbances in
northwest flow often outperform the guidance, so will add some
slight rain chances back into the far northern counties overnight.
Rainfall amounts will be light, with the activity dying before it
reaches the Florida border.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A large upper low will remain over the eastern third of the
country through Friday night. With lower tropospheric heights and
temperatures running 2-4 standard deviations below normal, expect
afternoon highs to be much cooler than average. Thursday will be
the coolest afternoon, with highs in the low 70s across Alabama
and Georgia, and the mid 70s elsewhere. Mid 70s should be common
at most locations on Friday. Overnight lows will also run a few
degrees below normal, with low to mid 50s forecast. No rain is
expected.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Deep ridging will prevail through most of the extended range
forecast. This will yield dry conditions with normal/above normal
highs through the weekend and early next week. Tuesday into
Wednesday, a frontal systems is expected to introduce showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast.


.MARINE...

An extended period of Cautionary conditions is expected through
Friday as high pressure builds into the region behind low pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. By the weekend light winds and low
seas are expected to prevail once again.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will prevail over the next few days with humidity
values dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday afternoon.
With ERC values in the upper 20s...Dixie County may approach Red
Flag conditions on Thursday. With strong transport winds...very
high dispersion values are expected both Thursday and Friday
afternoons.


.HYDROLOGY...

With no rain expected over the next week, there are no hydrology
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  50  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   76  57  76  60  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        72  49  75  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        73  48  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  48  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  50  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  56  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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