Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241747
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1247 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

VFR with mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail. A brief
period of MVFR conditions due to patchy fog is possible in the
pre-dawn hours but left out of TAFs for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1015 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Low amplitude deep-layer shortwave ridging continues to build into
the region at this hour, and will prevail through the period. This
will yield mostly clear and calm conditions region wide, and will
mark the beginning of a slight moderating trend in temperatures.
Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s once again this
afternoon with light west-northwesterly winds.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

High pressure will continue sliding east Wednesday ahead of the
next weather system. Return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will help
moderate highs for Wednesday with readings back up into the 70s.
Next cold front is set to swing through Wednesday night and
Thursday. Core of the dynamics will be well north of the area but
enough moisture and frontal lift for showers along and just behind
the front. Cloudy skies and weak cold air advection Thursday will
keep highs in the 60s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Behind the front, high pressure from the northern Rockies will
build in with cooler temperatures beginning Thursday night and
Friday. Highs Friday will be in the 50s. Zonal flow aloft with no
real temperature advection will be in place for this upcoming
weekend with 50s for highs and 30s for lows. Increasing troughing
across the eastern half of the CONUS towards Monday will send a
reinforcing cold front through the region. Appears dry at the
moment with cooler temperatures continuing.


.MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions today and tomorrow with high pressure
building in. The next cold front will move through the coastal
waters Wednesday night and Thursday with cautionary or low end
advisory winds possible through Thursday night. Winds will be
moderate Friday through Saturday with the front stalled in the
southern Gulf of Mexico.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days as fuel moisture remains high and RH`s well above
critical thresholds. Transport and 20 foot winds will be much
lighter today and will remain out of the northwest through tonight.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee river at Newton is falling through minor flood
stage, is cresting in minor flood at Geneva, is rising through
minor flood at Caryville, and is forecast to reach major flood
stage at Bruce later this week.

Minor flood is occurring or expected to occur along the
Ochlockonee, Flint, Apalachicola river at Blountstown, and
Withlacoochee river above Valdosta.

Anticipated rainfall amounts for the next system are on the order
of a quarter inch or less so no aggravation of local river systems
is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   44  77  59  69  38 /   0   0  40  20   0
Panama City   57  75  59  63  43 /   0   0  50  10   0
Dothan        46  76  53  61  37 /   0   0  50  10   0
Albany        43  76  56  64  37 /   0   0  50  10   0
Valdosta      43  76  61  70  38 /   0   0  40  40   0
Cross City    44  76  63  74  40 /   0   0  20  50   0
Apalachicola  54  75  62  73  44 /   0   0  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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