Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 050747
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The local region will reside under the western periphery of a
broad mid-upper level low centered off the southeast U.S. coast.
At the surface, winds will be from the east to northeast as a
wedge of high pressure builds down from the mid-Atlantic states
into northern and central Georgia. With this increase in
instability and low level moisture from the Atlantic, expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today. Highest
PoPs should be over the Florida zones due to low level convergence
as the sea breeze develops. Despite the above climo PoPs (50-60%),
temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s across
inland areas.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

A mid-upper level low should be situated over South Carolina
tonight, and this low will slowly retrograde to near or over our
forecast area by Sunday, and southeast of Louisiana by Monday.
This low should approximately bisect a broad gradient in
precipitable water values - slightly drier air to the northwest,
and slightly more moist air to the southeast. The expected
trajectory of the low should keep our forecast area largely in a
region of near or slightly above normal PWATs, as well as provide
some upper level support for ascent. Therefore, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue, generally following
the typical diurnal cycle with a maximum in land areas in the
afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures should be fairly
close to normal overall.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Global models generally maintain elevated PWATs over our forecast
area through the extended forecast period, with a persistent mid-
upper level trough (or break in the sub-tropical ridge) situated
just to the west. This should be sufficient for a continuation of
scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis, with
temperatures mostly within a few degrees of normal values.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
scattered to numerous convection by this afternoon. Winds will
be light form the east to northeast.

&&

.Marine...

With a fairly weak surface pressure gradient, winds and seas
should remain subdued through the forecast period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers remained below their local action stages as of
tonight, and this should continue for the next several days. We
are not expecting larger areas of organized heavy rain, but
localized heavy rain and isolated flooding cannot be ruled out
over the next few days due to slow storm motions.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  74  90  73  88 /  60  40  50  20  50
Panama City   89  75  86  74  86 /  50  40  50  30  40
Dothan        94  71  88  70  88 /  50  40  40  20  40
Albany        93  71  88  71  88 /  50  30  40  20  50
Valdosta      93  71  88  72  88 /  50  30  40  20  50
Cross City    92  73  89  73  88 /  60  30  40  20  40
Apalachicola  89  74  87  74  86 /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



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