Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 091921
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front moving quickly
across the Tennessee River Valley and into the Mid South. Some
scattered convection had developed ahead of this front across
Northern LA and Western MS and was starting to move eastward.
Across our region, east southeasterly flow has resulted in a warm
afternoon with most locations in the mid 80s.
Overnight as the cold front moves further eastward, the lack of
instability will result in limited thunderstorm development.
Moreover, model guidance suggests that the best combination of deep
layer forcing and moisture will remain just to the north and west of
the region through 12z, so will keep PoPs overnight in the low
chance range. With the moist and humid airmass in place, expect
overnight lows to be on the warm side, in the upper 60s.
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A positive-tilt upper level trough will continue translating
southeastward across our forecast area on Saturday, then stall along
the coast of the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, the associated
weak cold front will pass through our region during the day
Saturday. It does not appear that the Q-G forcing will align in a
very favorable way for widespread rain with this front, as the best
Q-vector convergence will be north and east of the forecast area
during peak boundary layer heating during the day Saturday. Thus
we are calling for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, with
the highest chances east of Albany and Tallahassee. Much drier air
will advect across the region Saturday night and Sunday.
Temperatures will be above average Saturday, with highs in the mid
80s. Highs will return to average on Sunday, with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday and Monday will be near average, in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Another upper level trough and associated cold front will traverse
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, accompanied by slight rain
chances. The upper level flow will become rather zonal mid to late
week, with an area of high pressure and a dry airmass across much of
the eastern CONUS. But for a brief return to slightly warmer-than-
average temperatures Monday and Tuesday, we will experience fairly
typical October weather, with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through much
of the period. Light winds overnight will support MVFR vsbys at
VLD and possibly ABY before the cold front nears the region.
Isolated showers are possible ahead of the front, especially at
ABY before sunrise. The front should cross through the region
before 18z, with any rain chance ending with the passage.
Light and variable winds this evening will become north overnight,
and eventually west to northwest on Saturday as a weak cold front
moves through. Northerly winds will increase to moderate levels at
times Saturday night behind the cold front, then become light again
during the day Sunday as an area of high pressure builds across the
Area rivers were below action stage. Rainfall amounts through
Saturday will generally be light, except for isolated heavier
amounts. This is not expected to have a significant impact on the
river stages. But for a slight chance of rain on Tuesday, the
upcoming work week will be dry.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 85 63 80 60 / 20 20 10 10 0
Panama City 69 82 65 78 63 / 20 10 10 0 0
Dothan 66 82 60 77 58 / 30 20 0 0 0
Albany 66 82 61 76 58 / 30 30 10 10 0
Valdosta 68 83 62 77 60 / 20 50 10 10 10
Cross City 69 84 64 81 61 / 20 40 10 10 10
Apalachicola 70 83 64 78 63 / 20 10 10 0 10