Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 050747
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The local region will reside under the western periphery of a
broad mid-upper level low centered off the southeast U.S. coast.
At the surface, winds will be from the east to northeast as a
wedge of high pressure builds down from the mid-Atlantic states
into northern and central Georgia. With this increase in
instability and low level moisture from the Atlantic, expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today. Highest
PoPs should be over the Florida zones due to low level convergence
as the sea breeze develops. Despite the above climo PoPs (50-60%),
temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s across
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A mid-upper level low should be situated over South Carolina
tonight, and this low will slowly retrograde to near or over our
forecast area by Sunday, and southeast of Louisiana by Monday.
This low should approximately bisect a broad gradient in
precipitable water values - slightly drier air to the northwest,
and slightly more moist air to the southeast. The expected
trajectory of the low should keep our forecast area largely in a
region of near or slightly above normal PWATs, as well as provide
some upper level support for ascent. Therefore, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue, generally following
the typical diurnal cycle with a maximum in land areas in the
afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures should be fairly
close to normal overall.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Global models generally maintain elevated PWATs over our forecast
area through the extended forecast period, with a persistent mid-
upper level trough (or break in the sub-tropical ridge) situated
just to the west. This should be sufficient for a continuation of
scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis, with
temperatures mostly within a few degrees of normal values.
[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
scattered to numerous convection by this afternoon. Winds will
be light form the east to northeast.
With a fairly weak surface pressure gradient, winds and seas
should remain subdued through the forecast period.
There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.
All area rivers remained below their local action stages as of
tonight, and this should continue for the next several days. We
are not expecting larger areas of organized heavy rain, but
localized heavy rain and isolated flooding cannot be ruled out
over the next few days due to slow storm motions.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 74 90 73 88 / 60 40 50 20 50
Panama City 89 75 86 74 86 / 50 40 50 30 40
Dothan 94 71 88 70 88 / 50 40 40 20 40
Albany 93 71 88 71 88 / 50 30 40 20 50
Valdosta 93 71 88 72 88 / 50 30 40 20 50
Cross City 92 73 89 73 88 / 60 30 40 20 40
Apalachicola 89 74 87 74 86 / 50 40 40 30 40