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FXUS62 KTAE 280041
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 00Z TAE sounding showed easterly flow in place from the
surface up to 400 mb. This continued deep layer easterly flow
from the Atlantic and nearby convection drove our PW values up to
2.2" tonight, just .2" shy of breaking our record for the date! Local
radar imagery shows storm coverage focused over the western FL Big
Bend, moving east toward the Panhandle. These storms are expected
to dissipate over the next couple hours, then chances for storms
will only remain out over the coastal waters. Minimum temperatures
overnight will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate
coastline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [710 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

There still remains a lot of uncertainty with the possible
development and track of Invest 99L. Unfortunately, the 12z
guidance today remains quite divergent in terms of track,
timing, and strength. In general, there was a trend in most of the
guidance towards slightly more development compared to previous
runs. However, any impacts we see will likely be in the long term
period. Through the short term, the highest PoPs will mainly be
across the Florida zones and local coastal waters at around 40%.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Due to the continued uncertainty with the ultimate fate of Invest
99L, we will not make any significant changes to the current
extended forecast at this time. We do not have much confidence in
any of the individual model runs today due to continued run to run
inconsistency and lack of agreement with each other. The 12z
Euro made a huge change today and says that we will be dealing
with a system in the Gulf for the entire week, but its run to run
consistency has been especially poor the last few days. The 12z
UKMET also lingers the system in the Gulf through 144 hours. The
GFS has been fairly consistent in showing little development,
although its 12z run did trend a little bit stronger with the
feature. The 12z Canadian moves the system in our direction fairly
quickly, but it appears to be too far north in the very early
stages of its development. Regardless of development, people in
our forecast area, especially at the coast, should at least
prepare for the possibility of heavy rain and hazardous boating
and beach conditions at some point next week. Until the system
becomes better defined (if it ever does), the models will probably
continue to show poor agreement and run to run inconsistencies.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

Ensemble guidance shows 20-40% chances for IFR-MVFR ceilings and
visibilities over the FL Big Bend and SW GA Sunday morning
(09-15Z). Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Winds will generally be light and from the
east.


.MARINE...

With a surface ridge to our north, winds will continue from the
east at moderate levels during the overnight and early morning
hours, but become lighter (especially at the coast) during the
afternoon and early evening hours. By early next week the
conditions will depend greatly on the development and track of a
tropical disturbance currently approaching south Florida.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent through the
period. No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns for at least the next few days.
Much of next weeks`s forecast will depend on the evolution of
Invest 99L with heavy rain possible should it move in this
direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  94  75  94  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
Panama City   77  88  77  90  77 /  10  40  30  20  20
Dothan        73  93  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        74  95  74  94  73 /   0  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      74  93  73  92  73 /   0  30  10  30  10
Cross City    75  94  74  91  74 /  10  40  20  40  10
Apalachicola  78  89  77  90  77 /  20  30  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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