Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251246
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

WV imagery this morning depicts an upper low centered over the
Florida Panhandle. At the surface, a subjective analysis places a
coastal front from the LA/TX border eastward across the northeast
Gulf, nosing inland toward the southeast Big Bend. This front,
with support from the upper low, have sparked a few storms across
the NE Gulf and SE Big Bend this morning.

Later this afternoon it will be a weak seabreeze circulation
combining with the low to initiate convection. Light northeasterly
steering flow will keep the more robust storms across north
Florida, near the coast in the afternoon, and in the Suwannee
Basin in the evening. There is the potential for a few storms to
produce gusty to marginally severe downdrafts, though only
isolated strong storms are expected. Elsewhere across AL and GA, a
stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out due to the
influence of the upper low, though coverage will be much less than
across north Florida. Afternoon highs will be near, to slightly
above average across the region. Expect highs around 90 degrees to
be common.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [654 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

A weak upper level low is situated across the western portion of
the CWA but this will shift eastward during the short term as an
upper level trough approaches. Associated cold front stretched
across the Midwest to southern Plains will move into the southeast
on Monday. This will help to enhance PoPs with a 30-50% chance on
Monday. This enhanced PoP trend will continue into Tuesday as the
front doesn`t push into the CWA until late Tuesday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Cold front is across stretched across the CWA on Wednesday and
will finally start to see the lower dewpoints (50s) push into the
northwest part of the CWA behind the front. Front moves east of
the CWA Wednesday night with PoPs decreasing and drier air
continuing to push in. PW values will drop to around half inch for
Thursday and Friday. Between this and dewpoints in the 50s, should
see dry and pleasant days behind the front on Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures will be slightly lower for the second half of
the week, with highs in the 80s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

There have been brief reductions in vsby at VLD and TLH this
morning, with VFR conditions persisting elsewhere. Isolated to
scattered SHRA and TSRA is expected across the Big Bend region,
with ECP, TLH, and VLD seeing the best chances of being directly
affected. Brief vsby reductions and gusty winds will be the main
impacts from this activity.


.MARINE...

Winds will be light (less than 10kts) and variable through Tuesday
and then become more northerly for the second half of the week
with a weak frontal passage. Seas will be one foot through mid
week and then increase to two feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rain is expected for the next few days, but significant rainfall
amounts and not expected and thus flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  72  90  72  89 /  30  30  40  20  40
Panama City   88  74  86  74  86 /  40  20  40  20  30
Dothan        93  69  90  68  89 /  20  20  30  20  40
Albany        92  70  90  70  89 /  30  20  40  20  40
Valdosta      90  70  88  69  89 /  40  20  50  20  30
Cross City    90  72  88  70  88 /  30  30  30  20  40
Apalachicola  88  74  85  74  86 /  20  20  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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