Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 021135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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