Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 030235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PERSIST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN
10KTS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS
EVENING. MLV

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0000Z.
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS...SHIFTING SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AT KBZN AND KHLN. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO MOVE OVER MONTANA. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY, BUT THIN LAYERS OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS, BUT VERY SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. GUSTS
COULD POTENTIALLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH ONGOING FIRE
FIGHTING EFFORTS ON THE REYNOLDS CREEK FIRE IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.  COULSTON

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP GIVEN LOWER MODEL CONFIDENCE AMID
THE DISTURBED AND MOIST FLOW. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  94  63  80 /   0  10  20  40
CTB  55  94  61  79 /   0  10  20  40
HLN  56  96  60  82 /   0  10  30  40
BZN  53  90  56  80 /   0  20  30  40
WEY  39  79  44  72 /   0  30  40  40
DLN  53  86  55  79 /   0  30  40  40
HVR  56  92  60  84 /   0   0  20  50
LWT  55  90  58  78 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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