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000
FXUS65 KTFX 241703
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1102 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Minor update to expand 15 PoPs across northern and northeastern
plains area of our CWA, though this may be a little overdone. A
series of shortwave disturbances will move southeast across the
north-central plains through this evening. However, the greatest
threat for a weak shower will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Cassell


&&

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over
the Northern Rockies through the weekend. Slightly unstable
northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge will bring a few showers
to the region on Saturday, but mostly dry conditions on Sunday as
the ridge axis moves overhead. Afternoon high temperatures will
continue to warm a few degrees each day with hot conditions
expected by Monday.

&&


.AVIATION...
Updated 1702z.

Northwest flow aloft will remain in place over the region today
through early Sunday morning. VFR conditions will prevail across the
forecast area but variable mid level clouds with a lone weak shower
or two will persist over north-central Montana. Some mountain
obscurations are possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
but conditions should improve after 00Z Sunday. Winds will remain
generally light and variable. mpj/cc

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 522 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Today through Monday...Main player in short term forecast
continues to be an upper level ridge along the West Coast. Ahead
of this ridge, a slightly unstable northwest flow aloft will
continue to affect North Central Montana today. Main impacts of
this flow will be mid-level clouds and a few light rain showers or
sprinkles continuing into this evening. Meanwhile, Southwest
Montana will remain generally dry and mostly clear. By late
tonight the upper ridge axis will begin to shift eastward bringing
mostly clear skies along with dry and warm conditions on Sunday.
Temperatures continue to increase on Monday as the thermal ridge
shifts into the state leading to hot conditions. However, as the
ridge continues to shift eastward, flow aloft over the state
becomes southwesterly late Monday with an increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms as unstable air advects into the region.
mpj

Monday Night through Friday...A cold front associated with a surface
low over central Alberta passes through the forecast area Monday
night. A weak shortwave aloft will aid in developing scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the front Monday night through early
Tuesday morning.  A large and closed upper level low develops over
western Canada on Tuesday, then drops into the high plains through
the end of the week. This change to a generally northwest flow aloft
will maintain slightly cooler than average temperatures, with
periods of rainshowers and afternoon thunderstorms.  PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  73  47  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  72  45  80  51 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  77  50  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  75  44  82  49 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  71  37  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  75  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  75  46  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  44  77  51 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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