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000
FXUS65 KTFX 071801
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Flooding concerns will continue today and through the weekend as
temperatures continue to warm. Winds will shift southwest and become
breezy this afternoon with mainly dry conditions expected. Have
lowered pops for areas across the Hi-Line this morning. The
remainder of the forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Weak high pressure aloft will build over the area this afternoon.
Generally dry conditions are expected, the exception being isolated
snow showers over the mountains. Surface winds will increase this
afternoon and become gusty at times. Winds should decrease after
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions in the vicinity of
showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2014/

A progressive and relatively weak upper level trough will move off
to the east of the region this morning as an upper level ridge of
high pressure, with axis currently along the west coast, moves
inland later today and into the Northern Rockies Saturday and
Sunday. Precipitation associated with the exiting trough will be
diminishing early this morning over the Rocky Mtn Front and SW MT
and winter weather highlights for the Rocky Mtn Front will be
allowed to expire. Cold airmass over the north-central MT Plains
will be eroded from west to east throughout the day as a lee-side
trough develops, however cold temps will likely linger through the
morning period with some patchy fog in areas. Warming will likely
be delayed until tonight or Saturday morning at the latest for
northeast zones including Hill/Blaine counties below 3000 ft.
Warming continues on Saturday as the upper ridge shifts over the
Northern Rockies with most lower elevation locations reaching the
50s for afternoon max temps. The upper ridge flattens Saturday
night through Sunday, bringing increasingly windy conditions to
the region with High Wind highlights likely being needed for areas
along the Rocky Mtn Front and possibly adjacent areas as well as
the Norris Hill area. Winds and increasing cloud-cover Saturday
night will keep temperatures very mild overnight, and the mild
start Sunday morning combined with west winds will push
temperatures into the upper 50s to around 60 on Sunday, despite
the flattening ridge.

Sunday night through Friday...Medium range models are in decent
agreement bringing an upper level wave into the Pacific Northwest
Sunday night. This feature continues to move east and reaches the
Northern Rocky Mountain region by Monday night. A surface cold front
will accompany the wave and widespread rain and snow can be
anticipated for Southwest Montana and southern portions of Central
Montana during this period. Residual showers persist across the
region through Tuesday but a dry airmass will move into the forecast
area by Wednesday as another transient ridge builds across the
western states. Temperatures will remain above seasonal average
through mid-week with Tuesday expected to be the coolest and wettest
day. Beyond mid-week, model solutions diverge and have trended the
forecast to remain slightly above average temperatures but cooling
slightly by the end of the week with pops also trending back toward
climatology. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  28  53  40 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  38  25  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
HLN  43  24  48  34 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  43  21  47  30 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  39  12  41  20 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  41  20  46  31 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  29  17  48  34 /  20   0   0  10
LWT  39  25  52  37 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS are in effect for Lewis and Clark, and Gallatin
Counties until Friday afternoon.

AREAL Flood Advisories are in effect for Madison, Jefferson,
Broadwater, Fergus, Meagher and Judith Basin Counties until Monday
morning.

&&

$$


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