054
FXUS63 KUNR 072238
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
438 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool and unsettled through Thursday with breezy conditions.

-Some high elevation snow is expected tonight through Wed
 morning.

-Warming up this weekend with drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Massive closed upper low over the Dakotas will linger through
Thurs, supporting cool and unsettled conds. The heaviest precip
has ended across the region. Although there will another push of
pos theta-e adv and associated precip tonight into Wed. Best
chance for precip will be across the far west (NE WY and the
northern Black Hills) where another half to one inch of water
equivalent is expected. In addition, snow will continue in the
higher elevations of the Black Hills above 5 kft, with another 2-5
inches of snow expected above 6kft tonight into Wed morning.
Winds will continue to wane through this evening with the
strongest winds occurring across NW SD and the far NE WY plains.
May end up extending the high wind warning through 03Z this
evening when the NPW is updated around 21Z this afternoon. The
wind adv for the the SD plains should be able to be expired at 21Z
and 00Z as scheduled. Best chances for precip the next two days
will be over NE WY with more scattered to isolated showers on the
SD plains. Breezy winds can be expected through Friday until an
upper ridge starts to build into the region. Flow will then
transition to NW aloft, with weak passing impulses expected in the
flow. This will support much warmer weather with semi-unsettled
conds as passing impulses support low chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 429 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Areas of rain showers (snow in the higher elevation areas of the
Black Hills) will continue on and off through the TAF period.
Strong west-northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening,
with gusts 45 to 50 knots likely at KGCC and KRAP for a few more
hours. MVFR/IFR conditions spread into nern WY, nwrn SD, and the
nrn BLKHLS this evening, with IFR/LIFR conditions there by 12z
Wednesday. These conditions will persist through much of the day,
even into parts of wcntrl and swrn SD, with MVFR conditions for
most of the rest of wrn SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-012-013-
     025-072-073-078.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ002-
     014-026-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-077.
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ054-056-060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Bunkers