Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 250517

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1017 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

A broad upper trough continues to cover the western
and central CONUS, with the initial embedded shortwave passing
through the northern plains, and a secondary wave over the Pacific
Northwest. Satellite shows clearing skies over much of the CWA, as
snow shifts into eastern SD. The surface trough stretches across the
western Dakotas, with low pressure across southwestern/south central
SD. Winds across the western SD plains are northwesterly, and breezy
just east of the Black Hills. Temperatures at 1 PM are in the teens
and 20s.

Under partly cloudy skies, winds will be westerly around 10 kts, and
lows will be in the single digits and teens.

Secondary wave associated with the upper tough will cross the region
early Sunday, bringing a slight chance for some upslope snow showers
over the northern Hills Sunday morning. A weak warm front will allow
temperatures to warm into the 30s, with some lower 40s possible.

Mainly dry weather will continue through next week. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal, in the 30s to lower 40s.
Models are showing a weak ridge bringing a brief period of warmer
temps to the area towards the end of the week, before colder air and
chances for snow return next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1017 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

An area of MFVR cigs will approach northeast WY/the Black Hills
over the next few hours as an upper-level disturbance moves
eastward through the region. While there is a chance KGCC could
briefly drop to MVFR cigs in the 08-12z time frame, believe that
KGCC will remain VFR through the TAF period.

The aforementioned disturbance and associated upslope flow will
bring a chance for light snow showers to the northern and central
Black Hills later tonight into early tomorrow morning. If these
materialize, localized MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will also likely
develop before conditions improve to VFR by mid-morning.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the




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