Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 041531
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL WY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CWA...PUSHING
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN SD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
ALSO LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S NOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLOUDIER
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS WY CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN THETA E ADVECTION.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG NERN FRINGE OF
THETA E BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOWING STORMS CONTINUING EWRD OVER CNTRL
SD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MORE POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO NE WY.
OVERALL A GENERALLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA. CONVECTION
WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT 160-180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY TO THE BLKHLS INTO NW SD. RIGHT
MOVER MOTION STILL VERY SLOW...SO ANY STRONGER ROTATING STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP A LOT OF WATER. WILL KEEP FFA HEADLINES GOING
FOR THIS PM.

MODELS SHOWING A DRY LINE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA WED MRNG WITH
STORMS PUSHING E/NE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH THIS DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. LOOKS
LIKE SUNSHINE COULD RETURN DURING THE DAY FOR THE BLKHLS AREA BEFORE
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECREASED POPS DURING
THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING RETURNS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST WED...ALSO RAISED
TEMPS UP INTO THE 80 TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ACTIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FIRST SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND EAST EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UPPER
LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/...WITH SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS/VSBY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VSBY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-012-013-
     024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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