Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels with only a few B-class
flares observed during the period. Region 2539 (N16W05, Eao/beta)
produced a B6/Sf flare at 03/0100 UTC. The region exhibited some
penumbra decay within its intermediate spots. Region 2541 (N04E52,
Cro/beta) produced a B6 flare at 03/0817 UTC. This region indicated some
rudimentary penumbra growth in its trailer spot. Both Regions 2535
(N07W55, Hax/alpha) and 2536 (N15W38, Dao/beta) exhibited slight decay
and were quiet during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares on day one (04 May) increasing to likely on days two and
three (05-06 May) due to the return of old active Region 2529 (N10,
L=344) on 04 May.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 03/1040 UTC
with a maximum flux reading of 4,006 pfu observed at 03/1550 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected an
enhanced solar wind environment through the first half of the period
with a trend to more background levels through the remainder of the
period. Solar wind began the period averaging about 575 km/s and
persisted at this speed through about 03/1200 UTC. After that, wind
speeds decreased to end the period between 450-475 km/s.

Total magnetic field strength ranged between 1 to 6 nT while the Bz
component did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. Phi angle began the period
in a negative orientation through 03/0600 UTC when the angle turned
weakly positive through periods end.

.Forecast...
Solar wind is expected to continue its trend towards background
conditions all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels through 03/0900
UTC with quiet conditions observed for the balance of the period.

.Forecast..
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions all
three days of the forecast period (04-06 May).



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