Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 222136
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 22 2135 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. The most spot group on the disk
was Region 2353 (N07W03, Cro/beta-gamma). All other regions on the sun
were unremarkable in their minor growth and decay.


A nearly 10 degree long, linear filament located at approximately N16E02
became active and slowly dissipated between 22/0300-0600 UTC. Analysis
of SDO/AIA imagery indicated the filament was likely reabsorbed. No
earth directed CME signatures were observed during the period on
available LASCO imagery.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity over the next three days (23-25 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at ambient background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (23-25 May). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the
forecast period (23-25 May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite indicated nominal conditions.
Solar wind speed was generally steady during the period as it ranged
from about 350-400 km/s with a brief increase to 470 km/s around 22/1100
UTC. Total magnetic field strength remained undisturbed between 4-6 nT.
The Bz component fluctuated between positive and negative with Bz never
exceeding -2 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away)
orientation.


.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal for the next three
days (23-25 May). On day three a minor enhancement is possible from a
small coronal hole that decayed as it transited across the central
portion of the solar disk.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through days one and
two (23-24 May). On day three (25 May) unsettled conditions are possible
as a slight enhancement is the solar is possible from a small coronal
hole that decayed as it transited across the central portion of the
solar disk.


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