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FXXX12 KWNP 101231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2430 (S17E40, Hrx/alpha) remained
stable and inactive. A B1 flare, the only reportable event of the
period, was observed at 09/2139 UTC from an unnumbered region behind the
southeast limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (10-12 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to very high levels
during the period, reaching a peak flux of 57,093 pfu at 09/1505 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at high levels with
very high levels likely for the forecast period (10-12 Oct) due to
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor)

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a trans-equatorial
positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed declined slowly over the
period from around 715 km/s at 09/0154 UTC to around 600 km/s by the
end of the period. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT while the Bz
component was between +4 and -5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive

Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decline on days one and two
(10-11 Oct) as effects diminish. Another enhancement in total field
intensity and solar wind speed is likely by day three (12 Oct) due to a
transition into a northern positive polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to waning CH
HSS effects.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days one and two (10-11 Oct) as CH HSS effects slowly diminish. By mid
to late on day three (12 Sep) activity is expected to reach minor (G1)
storm levels as the Earth transitions into a northern positive polarity
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