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FXXX12 KWNP 020030

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Feb 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2268
(S11W57,Fki/beta-gamma) remained the most active region producing a
C2/2f long duration flare at 01/0436 UTC, a C3 flare at 01/1133 UTC and
another C3/Sf flare at 01/2126 UTC. Decay was observed in the trailing
spots of the region resulting in an overall loss of spot count and area.

Additional weak C-class flares were observed from Regions 2275 (S17W94,
Cao/beta) and 2277 (N08E20, Fkc/beta-gamma). Penumbral growth was seen
in the leading spots of Region 2277. New flux emerged to the SE of
Region 2268 near S21W44. The remainder of the spotted regions appeared
to be in decay.

Other activity of note consisted of a large prominence eruption off the
ENE limb at about 01/0830 UTC. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a
slow-moving CME off the NE limb, first visible at 01/0936 UTC. At
01/1448 UTC, a second CME was seen in C2 imagery, again off the NE limb.
The second CME is believed to have originated from a source region on
the backside of the Sun. No Earth-directed component is expected due to
the location of both of these CMEs.

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (02-04 Feb) with a slight
chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater).  The most likely
sources of any enhanced flare activity are Regions 2268 and 2277 due to
their large size and complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous finally declined to background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (02-03 Feb)
with moderate to high levels possible on day three (04 Feb) due to a
high speed solar wind stream. A slight chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux reaching S1-Minor or greater levels is possible on 02-04
Feb due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2268.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind readings indicated a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) was
evident at the ACE satellite. This CIR signature is in advance of a
negative polarity southern crown coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Enhanced density readings along with a rise in total field was
followed by increased Bz variability. Wind speed gradually increased
from near 400 km/s to about 550 km/s through 01/1815 UTC when wind
speeds sharply increased to a peak of 748 km/s at 01/2006 UTC.
Afterwards, wind speed averaged close to 675 km/s. Through the period,
total field measurements ranged from 1 to 14 nT while the Bz component
varied between +/- 9 nT. Phi angle was variable between positive (away)
and negative (towards) sectors until 01/1829 UTC when orientation
settled into a steady negative sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH
HSS influence for the next three days (02-04 Feb).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels due to the CIR
and CH HSS influences.

Quiet to minor storm (G1) levels are expected on day one (02 Feb) due to
CH HSS activity. By days two and three (02-04 Feb), quiet to active
conditions are expected. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.