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FXXX12 KWNP 021230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Both Regions 2373 (N16E21,
Dso/beta) and 2376 (N13E38, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a few weak C-class
flares during the period. Region 2373 showed some trailer spot
consolidation while Region 2376 exhibited some trailer spot development.
New Regions 2377 (S11W30, Hrx/alpha) and 2378 (S15E70, Cso/beta) were
numbered this period. The remaining regions were quiet and stable.

An active prominence along the NE limb erupted between 01/1600-1700 UTC
as observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Most material appeared to be
reabsorbed and any eruptive material appeared to eject well north and
east of the Sun-Earth line.

Surging was noted beyond the SW limb in SDO/AIA 304 imagery around
01/1400 UTC. At 01/1436 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed an
asymmetric, partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb.
Analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests this CME is
traveling well off the Sun-Earth line with no Earth impact expected.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (02 -
04 Jul) primarily due to the higher flare potential of Region 2376.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 5,950 pfu observed at 01/1515 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux saw a slight enhancement above background levels
beginning around 01/1700 UTC with a peak of 5 pfu observed at 02/0030
UTC. This rise in proton flux levels was likely due to the surging
activity at about 01/1430 UTC beyond the SW limb.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (02 - 04 Jul). 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to trend down to background levels over day one through
three (02 - 04 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters displayed ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds
began the period averaging about 425 km/s and steadily decreased to end
the period near 360 km/s. Total field values ranged between 3-5 nT while
the Bz component generally varied between +/-4 nT. Phi orientation was
in a positive (away) sector then entire period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly nominal on days one
through three (02 - 04 Jul).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through
three (02 - 04 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are possible
in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole late on day one
(02 Jul). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.