Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 020031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C6/Sf at
30/0306 UTC from Region 2172 (S09W69, Fao/beta-gamma). Region 2178
(S02E19, Dac/beta-gamma) showed intermediate spot growth while all other
regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. While several
complex regions remain on the solar disk, as well as multiple filaments,
no significant activity occurred during the period and there were no
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on days one and two (02-03 Oct). A slight chance
for M-class activity remains on day three (04 Oct) as Region 2172
departs the west limb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of
1630 pfu at 01/1720 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels for the next three days (02-04 Oct). The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
reach moderate to high levels for the next three days (02-04 Oct).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft indicated solar wind
speeds decreasing slightly from speeds near 435 km/s to 350 km/s. The
total IMF Bt remained predominately between 5-7 nT while the Bz
component varied between +5 and -6 nT. Phi angle was in a positive
(away) sector for the majority of the period however, some variations
into the negative (toward) sector were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a continued agitated state
over the next two days (02-03 Oct), due to coronal hole effects and
multiple solar sector changes. A return to nominal conditions is
expected by day three (04 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet to active levels due to
intermittent periods of extended southward Bz.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active
periods on days one and two (02-03 Oct) due to the influence of coronal
hole high speed streams as well as solar sector changes. A return to
mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (04 Oct).


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