Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 120031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2497 (N13W06,
Eac/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C8
at 11/2103 UTC. Associated with the event were Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps (est. shock speed of 483 km/s). Further imagery is required to
identify any associated CME signatures that may have followed the event.

Region 2497 exhibited dissipation in the penumbral area in its trailer
and intermediate spots. Growth was observed near the leader spot, which
quickly developed penumbra and consolidated into a delta configuration.
All other regions remained relatively simple and inactive. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight
chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (12-14
Feb). Region 2497 is likely to be the primary contributor.


Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (12-13 Feb) with the potential to
reach high levels by day three (14 Feb).

There exists a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 levels over the next three days (12-14 Feb) due to the
complexity and position of Region 2497.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were slightly
enhanced. Bt began the period around 4 nT and gradually increased to a
peak of 11 nT by the periods end. The Bz component was predominantly
southward with a brief period of northward orientation from between
11/1600-1930 UTC. Wind speeds were relatively slow and steady around 320
km/s from 11/0000 - 11/1540 UTC. A slight increase was observed towards
the end of the period with speed increasing to a peak of around 380
km/s. Phi angle was mostly negatively throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced on day one (12 Feb)
as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Day
two (13 Feb) is likely to see subsiding influence of the CH HSS. A
return to mostly nominal conditions is expected by day three (14 Feb).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
period of active levels during the 11/2100-2400 UTC synoptic period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with
isolated periods of active conditions likely on day one (12 Feb). Day
two (13 Feb) is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions as
influence from the CH HSS wanes. Day three (14 Feb) will likely see
mostly quiet conditions under a nominal solar wind environment.


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