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FXXX12 KWNP 210030

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels.  Region 2192 (S13E30,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced five M-level (NOAA Scale R1- Minor)
flares over the period. The largest a M4 flare at 20/1637 UTC. Region
2192 persists as the most productive and threatening region on the
visible disk and continued to develop throughout the period. It
increased in area from 1560 to 2180 millionths, while maintaining
magnetic complexity. Region 2193 (N04W04, Dao/beta) exhibited minor
growth this period while the other regions on the visible disk were
relatively stable.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed this period.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next three days (21-23 Oct) with Region
2192 being the likely source of solar activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (21-23 Oct).  There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm level over the next three days (21-23 Oct)
as Region 2192 moves into a more favorable position on the solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters observed at ACE indicated the continued agitated
state believed to be the result of the first of two anticipated positive
polarity coronal holes. Solar wind speeds increased from near 450 km/s
to near 550 km/s. Bt remained steady between 8nT and 10nT, with
intermittent extended periods of southward Bz near -6nT. The Phi angle
was at a predominately positive (away) orientation.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced, with wind speeds
in the 450-550 km/s, over the next three days (21-23 Oct) due to
continued CH HSS influence.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (NOAA Scale G1 -
minor) levels due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels
for day one (21 Oct) with the initial CH effects. Days two and three
(22-23 Oct) are forecast to see unsettled to active, as CH conditions
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