Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Aug 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a
C3 flare at 21/1757 UTC from Region 2672 (N07E55, Dao/beta). The other
sunspot group, Region 2671 (N11W24, Fkc/beta-gamma), produced a couple
of C1 flares. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available
satellite imagery during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance of M-class
flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts), for the next three days
(22-24 Aug).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a
peak flux of 52,000 pfu observed at 21/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remain at high to very
high levels over the next three days (22-24 Aug), while the greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters showed subsiding influences from a positive
polarity CH HSS until near 21/2300 UTC when a possible transient feature
caused an enhancement. Solar wind speeds increased to near 650 km/s
after the aforementioned enhancement. Total field strength mainly ranged
between 2 and 5 nT, with a bump to 10 nT, and the Bz component reached a
maximum southward deflection of -9 nT. The phi angle switched from a
positive to a negative orientation half way through the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the next
two days (22-23 Aug) while solar wind speeds recover to background
levels in the wake of the CH HSS. Primarily nominal conditions are
expected by day three (24 Aug) as solar wind parameters return to
background levels.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2-Moderate storm levels due to effects
from a possible transient feature.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (22 Aug) with isolated active periods early. Day two
(23 Aug) is expected to be mostly quiet with intermittent unsettled
periods. By day three (23 Aug) mostly quiet conditions are expected with
a return to background solar wind conditions.



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