Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FGUS71 KBGM 131935
Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
335 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 8...
This is the eighth in a series of regularly scheduled hydrologic
outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring season. This outlook
is designed to provide a generalized assessment of river flood
potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks...April 13th to
The overall risk of flooding for the next two weeks is slightly
above average due to wetter than normal ground conditions and
higher than average river levels. There are no heavy rain
producing storm systems on the horizon, however, if one does
develop, then flooding concerns would become greater than normal.
.PRECIPITATION: Above normal. Precipitation over the past month
has been over 150 percent of what is typical from mid-March to
.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT: Normal. Significant snow cover
no longer exists in the basins.
.RIVER ICE COVER: Normal. Rivers are ice free which is expected
.STREAMFLOW: Above normal. Streamflow averaged over the last
14-28 days was above the 75th percentile of all flows recorded
throughout the history of each stream gauge. Rivers are therefore
considered to be running high for the time of year.
.SOILS: Per the Palmer Drought and the Crop Moisture index, the
first several inches of topsoil was considered wet across most of
the region. Some areas were classified as being excessively wet,
particularly in the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins.
.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...Above normal pools. Most all of the
Finger Lakes were running above normal, and Cayuga Lake was over the
Moderate flood level at this time. The NYC Delaware Basin reservoirs
were near total capacity with a few still dumping water through
the spillways. Lake Wallenpaupack was above the target level for
.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for
slightly cooler than average temperatures with above normal
precipitation. The latest medium to long range model guidance
suggests the weather pattern will become more active again, but
with generally weaker and fast moving systems and no major heavy
rain events noted at this time.
.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: The
ensemble of river forecast systems indicates only very low
probabilities of flooding for the next two weeks at a few river
gauges. A climatological analysis of flooding, using current
hydrologic conditions compared to historical flows, suggests the
chance for river flooding during the two week period is slightly
This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding
based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which
contribute to flooding.
It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur
from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a period
of time, is the most important factor in determining the severity
of flooding. Specific forecasts of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are not included in this outlook.
The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office in
two weeks, on April 27th, 2017. If conditions change in the
interim: Flood Watches, Warnings or Advisories will be issued as