Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
939 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018


Each winter and early spring, The National Weather Service office
in Newport/Morehead City, NC issues a series of flood potential
outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for river
flooding across the Newport/Morehead City forecast office`s
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). The outlook is based on the
current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which
contribute to river flooding. These factors include, but are not
limited to recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and
snow water equivalent, stream flows, and expected future weather

Historically for the Carolinas the river flood season begins in
early to mid January with the number of flood events increasing
through late winter with a peak in early to mid March...ending in
late April for the region.

Overall, the last four and a half months Eastern North Carolina
has been near to below normal.

A table below summarizes precipitation and departure from normal
for the water year beginning October 1,2017

   Month              Greenville      New Bern      Cape Hatteras


  October             3.52/0.27      4.73/1.47      2.15/-3.23

  November            1.55/-1.57     0.42/-2.98     2.19/-2.76

  December            3.41/0.16      4.23/0.83      4.90/0.63
  January             3.41/1.55      5.06/1.04      8.60/3.36
  February to date    2.27/1.73      0.89/1.86      1.59/2.16

Total precip         16.16/0.95     15.33/1.25      19.43/-2.57

Streamflow values across the area are generally at near to
slightly above normal values and upstream reservoir levels are
mainly near normal. Soil moisture conditions across Eastern NC
are at normal levels.

During the next seven days, a chance of rain this weekend, then
becoming dry for a day or two with rain chances for each day
afterwards. The eight to fourteen day outlook calls for warm and
drier conditions.

Based on the above data, the river flood outlook through the
remainder of winter and into early spring is considered below

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
March 2.


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