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FNUS28 KWNS 301955
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD -- 12Z/MON -- WILL HELP DAMPEN THE NWRN PORTION OF UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. CONTINUED
EWD PROGRESS OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
ITS WAKE WILL FURTHER DAMPEN THE RIDGE WITH BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS BY 12Z/WED. SOME RIDGING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO LWR GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY WHICH BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WLY FLOW ALOFT...REMAINING LARGELY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

...SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON D3/MON ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AZ AND
THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES N
OF THE REGION. THIS INCREASED FLOW COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING AND SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY BUT UNRECEPTIVE FUELS ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPER ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL ZONAL
OR WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
WARM AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS REACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS REMAINS LOW WITH GENERALLY MOIST FUELS ALSO ACTING AS A
FACTOR LIMITING FIRE POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...WILL NOT DELINEATE ANY
THREAT AREAS WILL THIS FORECAST. GIVEN THE WINDY...DRY...AND WARM
CONDITIONS...FUELS WILL LIKELY START DRYING THIS WEEK AND FUEL
GUIDANCE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO DETERMINE IF ANY THREAT AREAS
ARE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

..MOSIER.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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