Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 281939
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A MOSTLY ZONAL AND
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INITIALLY OVER THE CONUS ON D3/MON WILL
TRANSITION TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS BY D7/FRI. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO OVERLAP AREAS OF LOWERED RH VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM INTO FAR W TX
ON D3/MON AND PERHAPS D4/TUE...AS A WEAK SRN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES
FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY EWD TO SRN AZ/NM AND NRN
MEXICO. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF
FORECAST WINDS...LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NM INTO FAR W TX BOTH MON AND TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...NO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR EITHER D3/MON OR D4/TUE.

..GLEASON.. 05/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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