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FNUS28 KWNS 292055
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC AND OVER THE WRN CONUS. ENHANCED SLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/GUSTY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PARTS
OF THE NRN ROCKIES...AND PERHAPS INTO THE ADJACENT NRN HIGH PLAINS
FROM D3/WED THROUGH AT LEAST D5/FRI. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON D3/WED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH D5/FRI.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES FROM D6/SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS TOO LOW IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME TO INCLUDE
PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND D5/FRI.

...D3/WED - D5/FRI: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND NRN ROCKIES...
STRONG/GUSTY SFC WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND SERN ORE ON D3/WED AS MID-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. LOWERED
RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS SAME REGION
WITH A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE 40
PERCENT/MARGINAL AREA FOR D3/WED HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN EXPANDED TO
ENCOMPASS LOCATIONS WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. 10 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED FOR D3/WED
ALONG A N-S CORRIDOR FROM NERN NV/NWRN UT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
ACROSS THIS REGION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH MARGINAL PWAT VALUES...FAST
FORECAST STORM MOTIONS...AND A WELL-MIXED/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
RESULTING IN LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL.

FOR D4/THU AND D5/FRI...THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/GUSTY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR
D4/THU AS DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. A 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR D5/FRI ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
EVEN STRONGER WINDS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
/70 PERCENT/ AT THIS TIME.

...D3/WED: PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
BENEATH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS...AN INCREASE IN SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WED AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A
HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER CNTRL MT. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED...AND RH VALUES MAY FALL NEAR/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AS
DIURNAL MIXING BECOMES MAXIMIZED WED AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS FUELS
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE RECEPTIVE TO LARGE FIRE
STARTS...AND A 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THREAT.

..GLEASON.. 08/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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