Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 282047
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 061200Z

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST
ON D3/FRI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SWLY FLOW
ALOFT/ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN CA...CNTRL/ERN PACIFIC NW...AND THE NWRN GREAT
BASIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST...HELPING TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W
COAST AND MAINTAIN SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE ENHANCED
SWLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS RESULTS IN A FIRE WEATHER FROM D3/FRI
THROUGH D5/SUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH /PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE W COAST/ IS EXPECTED
EJECT EWD ON D6/MON WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVER FLOW EXTENDING
THROUGH ITS BASE FROM CNTRL CA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE A FIRE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SWLY SURFACE WINDS...AT LEAST MODERATELY DRY FUELS...AND DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND A 40-PERCENT AREA WAS
INTRODUCED WITH THIS FORECAST. A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NEEDED BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ENOUGH FOR A 70-PERCENT DELINEATION. SOME THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
D7/TUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE INTRODUCING ANY AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 09/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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