Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FNUS28 KWNS 272046
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...D3/SUN-D4/MON...
THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO OK AND
THE TX PANHANDLE WITHIN A REGIME OF LITTLE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
RETURN AND AREAS OF MODERATE SFC WINDS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING ZONES OF ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW TRACK SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES/LOWER RH...MITIGATING THE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

...D5/TUE-D8/FRI...
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE FIRE-WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
FROM PARTS OF THE SW STATES/CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO THE GREAT
PLAINS...WHERE A MORE AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL WAVE PATTERN COULD EVOLVE.
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVANCE ONSHORE FROM THE E PACIFIC AND TRACK
EWD WITH ACCOMPANYING ZONES OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERLYING
AREAS OF DRY SFC CONDITIONS. PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE BEEN
WITHHELD FROM THE PRESENT OUTLOOK OWING TO ONGOING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND
SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL LARGELY INFLUENCE
THE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. ULTIMATELY...FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY
BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IN
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR
PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 03/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.