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FNUS28 KWNS 082117
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 101200Z - 161200Z

AMPLIFIED WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH D5/FRI WHILE UNDERGOING GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION. A
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST D6/SAT. DURING THIS PERIOD...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 70S /10-20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH MIN RH VALUES LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE D3/WED WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SUPPORTING MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING 10
PERCENT /LOCALLY LOWER/. QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
CONTINUES SHOW MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIABILITY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE IN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
40-PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR D3/WED BUT INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER
D3/WED CURRENTLY PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY OTHER THREAT
AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 02/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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