Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 270558
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AZ INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AND FAR WEST TX...

...Synopsis...
Strong deep-layer west/northwesterly flow will persist across much
of the southwestern states to the southern Plains. Lee surface
cyclogenesis will develop during the late morning into the afternoon
over the central and southern High Plains, while higher surface
pressure resides near/just offshore the Pacific coast. This will
result in at least a modest pressure gradient across AZ/NM and into
TX, aiding in strong surface winds. Warm and dry conditions also
will continue and another day of elevated to critical conditions is
expected.

Dry conditions are also expected to continue over parts of central
FL as temperatures warm into the 90s during the afternoon. Given
ongoing drought and dry fuel conditions across this area, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected.

...Much of AZ/NM into far west TX...

Temperatures will warm into the 80s and low 90s across southern
AZ/NM into west TX with cooler temperatures with northward extent.
RH values will fall into the 10-15 percent range across the critical
area from southeast AZ into parts of southern/central NM and far
west TX. In the surrounding elevated across parts of northern AZ/NM
into the TX Panhandle southward to the Concho Valley, RH values will
be a bit more marginal from 15-20 percent. As for winds, westerly
surface winds will quickly increase during the late morning.
Sustained winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts are possible in the
critical area and northern portions of the elevated area. Wind
speeds may be somewhat weaker over western portions and southeastern
portions of the elevated. The eastward extent of the critical will
be modulated by unfavorable fuel conditions due to ongoing
springtime green-up across much of western TX.

...East-Central FL Peninsula...

Drying is expected as temperatures warm into the low 90s and deep
boundary-layer mixing ensues. RH values generally around 30-35
percent are expected with ongoing drought conditions in place. The
main limiting factor will be generally light southwesterly winds at
10 mph or less. Given marginal RH values and ongoing drought,
elevated fire weather potential exists.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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