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000
FNUS21 KWNS 201643
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 201700Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE AZ...SW/S-CENTRAL NM... FAR
SW TX...

...FAR SE AZ...SW/S-CENTRAL NM... FAR SW TX...
A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT /12Z EPZ SOUNDING REPORTED 0.27 INCH PW/
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT
OF POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...RH VALUES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 15
PERCENT WITH CONTINUED DECLINE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED.
INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS SAMPLED WELL BY REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND
SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CRITICAL RISK AREA. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE CRITICAL RISK WWD
INTO FAR SE AZ.

...CNTRL NM INTO W TX...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS /SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES/ AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
/WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH/ ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

...SW CA MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

..MOSIER.. 05/20/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
...SW INTO S-CENTRAL NM AND FAR SW TX...
ENHANCED WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF HIGH PLAINS TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER
SW OK WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S/SW
FROM THE LOW TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND AREA...WHILE A SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NW OK INTO CENTRAL NM. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURE WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S. RH VALUES FROM 6-12
PERCENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE BORDERLINE
CRITICAL...FROM 15-20 MPH. BUT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COUPLED WITH A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 MPH.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL NM INTO W TX...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA...BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO 90S...DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR AND RH VALUES FROM 6-10 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE FURTHER
WEST ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...FROM 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT.

...SW CA MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...
A WEAK OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. A DRY AIR
MASS COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS...AT ABOUT 30-40 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RETURN BY EVENING.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...