Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 021500
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

VALID 021700Z - 031200Z

NO CHANGES NEEDED. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FORECAST
DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0349 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NWWD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY NWD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. VERY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PLUME-DOMINANT FIRE
GROWTH...BUT LIGHT SFC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
THREAT. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE NWD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH.

...PORTIONS OF NRN CA...NWRN NV...SRN/CNTRL ORE...CNTRL/SRN ID...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CA...NV...AND ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE AND ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOCAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS. OBSERVED 02/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAK AND
MFR AND RECENT GPS-BASED ANALYSES INDICATE PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH
ACROSS NRN CA INTO SRN ORE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN 0.5
INCHES EXTENDING NORTHEAST. THESE PW VALUES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MODEST STORM MOTIONS...WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY WETTING RAINFALL...BUT
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CAN
BECOME VERY HOT AND WELL-MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LTG
STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES WILL POSE AN IGNITION
THREAT...GIVEN VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

FURTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN ID...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED...AS THIS AREA IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY TSTM ACTIVITY IN
THIS REGION IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...GIVEN LOW PW VALUES AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY/DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT...THE ISOLATED DRY-TSTM DELINEATION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS AREA.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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