Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 021615
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

VALID 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

SOUTHEASTWARD SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS.  THESE CHANGES WERE MADE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WFO SGX...WHO MENTIONED THAT LOCAL FD/FUELS EXPERTS INDICATED
LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CRITICAL.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

..COOK.. 12/02/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 0238 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A DEEP
TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW WILL
BECOME CUT-OFF FROM NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE MS RIVER TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

...SOUTHERN CA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE CA COAST INTO SOUTHERN NV WILL INCREASE...
LEADING TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS.  HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL FURTHER BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLOSING OFF
UPPER TROUGH/LOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS
EVENING...WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S TO 50S IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO 20 PERCENT...AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...UP
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT
SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THE IMMEDIATE L.A. AREA. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

...SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN FL...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AL WILL RESULT IN
CONTINENTAL/OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES MAINTAINING A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE WILL BE COMMON. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN FL...
ALLOWING FOR FUELS TO REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...LIGHT NORTH WINDS...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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