Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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900
FNUS76 KLOX 252201
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for Clear Creek RX...Forest Service
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
301 PM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 PDT on March 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper level ridge will move across the area on
Sunday, bringing mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures
to the Clear Creek Rx area. A weak storm system with little
associated moisture will brush the forecast area late Sunday night
through Monday. The Rx area will see variable clouds and a very low,
but non-zero, chance of precipitation Monday afternoon. There is an
outside chance that a few sprinkles may occur, but no rainfall
accumulation is expected. Increasing northerly winds are expected
Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a ridge builds over California
in the wake of the departing storm system. The strongest winds are
expected late Monday night into early Tuesday...with gusts between 30
to 40 mph. A significant decrease in winds is expected Tuesday
afternoon. Lowering humidities will occur through the period. A
warming trend is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

The upper ridge will peak in strength on Wednesday, and offshore flow
will continue but at weaker speeds. Temperatures will peak on
Wednesday as well, with highs in the mid 70s at the Rx location.
Thursday is likely to be continued warm and dry with mainly light
winds in the Rx area...but there is a chance of increasing northwest
flow. The extended models show another weak trough brushing the area
on Friday, with cooler temperatures possible. This inside-slider
storm may set the stage for another offshore wind event next weekend.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy.
Max temperature.....58-62.
Min humidity........58-63 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 3 to 5 mph shifting to the
                    west 3 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west
                    6 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph becoming west
                    8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to  4200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph becoming west
                    5 to 10 mph.


.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 8 mph
                    becoming light and variable up to 3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    becoming variable/downslope up to 5 mph.
 Ridgetop...........West winds 8 to 15 mph becoming northwest
                    6 to 12 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL decreasing to 1200 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....59-64.
Min humidity........37-42 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 5 mph increasing to 5 to
                    10 mph with gusts to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10
                    to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the
                    afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph increasing to 15
                    to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL increasing to 7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph increasing to 20 to 30
                    mph.


.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....42-45.
Max humidity........55-60 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts up to
                    18 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts between
                    30 to 35 mph.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40
                    mph.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL decreasing to 1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North to northeast 20 to 30 mph.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....66-70.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
                    decreasing to 4 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
                    in the morning decreasing to 8 to 12 mph in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........North to northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts
                    to 35 mph in the morning becoming north 8 to 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 72500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 30 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph.


$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Hector Sanchez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705158.0/LOX
.EMAIL Hectorsanchez@fs.fed.us



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