Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 201621
1121 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 20 THROUGH AUGUST 25


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper air low pressure system is moving northeastward
this morning and is located west of the DFW metroplex.  This
disturbance has brought periods of showers and thunderstorms to
central and southwest Texas the past 3 days.  The heaviest rainfall of
over 4.00 inches was noted near Roosevelt TX the past 24 hours. This
upper low is producing a few showers over extreme north Texas and
southern Oklahoma this morning.  This disturbance is forecast to drift
over Oklahoma and will weaken today.  Therefore, the rainfall over
Texas will diminish.  Additionally, thunderstorms developed along the
seabreeze front over southeast Texas Tuesday afternoon, and this area
of rain moved northward into the early evening.  Some locally heavy
rain of 2 to 4 inches was noted from these thunderstorms in and around
the Beaumont TX area.

An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly shift
westward and strengthen over the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.
Meanwhile, a strong upper level system will be developing over
southern California. The high will move over the lower Mississippi
River valley through the week before drifting north to the western
Ohio valley over the weekend.  This will keep conditions very warm and
dry for most of Texas into Monday morning. Elsewhere, monsoonal
rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico,
especially by Friday and Saturday as the upper low from California
moves northeastward. And the sea breeze will persist over the Gulf
coast and southeast Texas, producing scattered thundershowers during
the afternoon hours each day for the next 5 days. But no significant
rainfall is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far southwest
Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of
southern Colorado, northwest and southern New Mexico, southwest Texas,
as well as along the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch
or less are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado, northwest
and extreme southern New Mexico, west Texas, and southeast Texas into
southern Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast
for most of Colorado, most of New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas
along and near the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas into southern New Mexico.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of Colorado and New
Mexico, and far west Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New Mexico
is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in
exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are impacting 43%
of New Mexico and 35% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico
have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks.  In
Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter.
No widespread significant rainfall is forecast this week through the
weekend, therefore no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows.
Localized thunderstorm complexes over the Hill Country in the last few
days will add much needed water to the system, but no significant
flooding is expected.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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