Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 161622
1122 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

                   VALID APRIL 16 THROUGH APRIL 21


                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure has moved into the WGRFC region the past 24
hours.  The ridge is flattening this morning, resulting in a zonal
upper air flow.  Dry air associated with this flow is bringing the
area dry weather today.

By tonight an upper air disturbance is forecast to develop over the
Colorado Rockies.  This trough may produce rain, with snow at higher
elevations, across Colorado and northeast New Mexico.  But as this
disturbance moves across Kansas and Oklahoma Thursday most of the
showers and thunderstorms associated with this trough will be to the
north of the WGRFC area.  Some rain may occur across extreme
northern Texas but it will not be significant.  This disturbance
will be east of our region Thursday night.

On Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will bring mostly dry weather
to the WGRFC area (except the far western portions).  But by Friday
night a new upper air disturbance will be moving through the Desert
Southwest.  Moisture will be increasing ahead of this disturbance,
and rainfall will begin to develop across portions of New Mexico and
west Texas Friday night.  Then as the disturbance moves eastward the
rain is forecast to become fairly widespread on Saturday across
especially the northwest half of Texas.  The rain should linger into
Sunday over primarily north Texas and Oklahoma.  At this time only
light to moderate amounts of rainfall are expected from the storm
this weekend.  The upper level disturbance is forecast to move to
the east on Monday and the light rain will end.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern
Colorado and extreme northeast New Mexico, with the heaviest amounts
forecast just east of the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25
inch are forecast for southern Colorado, the northeast quarter of
New Mexico, and the northern Texas panhandle.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for the eastern Texas panhandle into north central Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado into central New
Mexico and far west Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of the northwest half of Texas and extreme
southeast New Mexico.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for the
extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast from near Mineral
Wells TX to near Wichita Falls TX.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25
inch are forecast over most of the remainder of the WGRFC area
(except for the Gulf coast).

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several
weeks over most of the region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 85% of
Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 28% of
Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in
Texas, reservoirs are, on average, are around 65% full.  This is
below average for this time of year, with average being about 80%
full.  There is considerable variability across the state, with many
of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is
forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce
significant runoff.  Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power generation
until further notice.  Higher flows from earlier high releases are
expected to keep the stage at Deweyville (DWYT2) sightly above minor
flood stage through April 19 then fall back to low flow conditions.
2 units were taken offline at 4PM yesterday.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the
mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant
impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2)
is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the
area.  The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
More rainfall is expected this weekend in north Texas in the
WGRFC area.  However, no significant impacts are expected along the

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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