Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241535
1035 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

                    VALID JUNE 24 THROUGH JUNE 29


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front pushing southward through Texas has resulted
in numerous showers and thunderstorms overnight through this
morning. Maximum rainfall totals ranged from three to over 6
inches with 6.64 inches reported at Sheldon, Lake Houston in
the past six hours.

The combination of the advancing front as it interacts with
the boundary along the Gulf Coast is generating enhanced
convective activity resulting in high intensity rainfall and
localized flash flooding. This front will continue to slide south
through central and southeast Texas this morning so the chances for
showers and storms will persist with a significant drop in air

Thereafter, a second upper disturbance is forecast to move
southeastward and reinforce the chances for fairly widespread rain
Sunday into Monday, and over south Texas into Tuesday. At this
point the heaviest rain is forecast by weather models to fall over
eastern New Mexico into the Texas panhandle region Sunday. The
majority of the rain forecast over Texas will be very welcome,
and no new or additional river flooding is expected this weekend
or early next week at this time.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of between 1.00 and 1.50 inches are forecast for east
southeast Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.50 of an inch are
forecast over most of the remainder of the WGRFC area of

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of between 0.50
and 1.00 inch are forecast for of New Mexico and southern
Colorado. MAP amounts of between 0.50 and 1.00 inch are
forecast over extreme southeast Texas along the Gulf Coast.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50
of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle. MAP amounts of up to 0.50 of an inch are forecast
over south southeast Texas along the Gulf Coast.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50
of an inch are forecast over south southeast Texas along the
Gulf Coast.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 27%, and roughly 5% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, 25% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with about 7%
of the state in the moderate drought category. The driest topsoil
moisture conditions are over west Texas into the panhandle, and soils
are rather moist over east Texas where it is raining now. Therefore,
significant runoff will be possible through Friday over the east
Texas river basins, with no significant runoff expected elsewhere the
next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) is
forecast to rise into minor flood levels in a couple of days.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Saltwater Barrier on the mainstem of the
Neches at Beaumont (NSBT2) and Village Creek near Kountze (KOUT2) to
reach higher than normal (action stage) criteria levels from
rainfall from Cindy.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall is coming down pretty efficiently today and expect to see
some localized rises where the heavier embedded rainfall develops.
Focus will be on the eastern half of Texas today as the front pushes
through and stratiform precip continues through the day.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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