Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 091648
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VALID MARCH 9 THROUGH MARCH 14
...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION DRIES OUT...
The upper atmospheric low pressure system which was over Colorado and
New Mexico Saturday has split into two pieces. One disturbance has
moved eastward across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and the
other has closed off as a deep low over Mexico south of Arizona.
The Oklahoma disturbance produced light rain showers over northern
Texas Saturday, with the rainfall becoming more limited to southeast
Texas Saturday night as the disturbances passed.
The second upper low will dig southward deeper into western Mexico
today, then move eastward toward south Texas by late Monday. Well
out ahead of this low, moisture increased over south Texas which
caused the rainfall to increase last night. Rainfall amounts were
in the two to three inch category over the middle Texas Gulf coast
and over parts of deep south Texas the past 24 hours. This slow
moving system is expected to produce more precipitation over deep
south Texas today and tonight, the shift up the middle and upper
Texas Gulf coast Monday and Monday night. Then as the low moves
along the southeast Texas coast on Tuesday morning it should push
the remaining precipitation eastward from extreme southeast Texas
into Louisiana. The low will finally exit the region by Tuesday
afternoon and the rain will end.
There will be a return to zonal flow and drier conditions as the
system exits the area to the east Tuesday evening into mid-week.
Forecast models indicate the potential for additional precipitation
over Colorado and northern New Mexico late Tuesday into early
Wednesday as another upper air disturbance forms over this region.
But for the most part this disturbance will stay west of the WGRFC
area until late Thursday. Outside of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado, the WGRFC area will have dry conditions from
Wednesday into Friday morning.
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for much of south Texas.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over
the lower Texas Gulf coast near Brownsville and South Padre Island.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the
southern half of Texas and southern Louisiana.
For Monday into Tuesday morning, 0.25 inch or more are forecast for
the southeast third of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over
the upper Texas Gulf coast near Galveston TX. MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the southeastern half
of Texas and most of Louisiana.
For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over northern New Mexico, most of Colorado, extreme
southeast Texas and a good part of Louisiana.
For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of
drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico
are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central
Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas,
reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is well below the median
average reservoir storage at this time of year, of about 80% full.
There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the
reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short
term for the WGRFC area, but some minor improvement is likely
occurring from the middle Texas Gulf coast into deep south Texas.
Forecast precipitation totals are favorable for continued minor
runoff over south Texas the next five days, but because of the dry
soil moisture conditions the rainfall will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff.
...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall occurred overnight in the upper part of the
San Bernard River Basin. Minor rises are occurring on the San
Bernard River. A higher than normal river forecast has been issued
for the San Bernard River near East Bernard (EBBT2).
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall occurred overnight over parts of the
Lavaca-Navidad River System. Minor rises are occurring on the
Navidad River. Higher than normal river forecasts have been issued
for Navidad River at Sublime (near Hallettsville) (SBMT2), Morales
(MRAT2), and Strane Park (near Edna) (LSNT2).
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall over the last 24 hours has occurred primarily over South
Texas and along and near the Texas Gulf Coast. Although some of the
remaining rivers and streams are experiencing minor rises, these
river levels are expected to remain below criteria levels. Also,
rainfall forecast over the next 1 to 2 days are not expected to
cause any major issues. Therefore, no significant river flooding is
forecast over the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: