Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 091600
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VALID OCTOBER 9 THROUGH OCTOBER 14
...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
Another round of showers developed over the Big Bend and points
around Amistad Reservoir and points downstream early this morning and
are still occurring. Rainfall amounts of up to 6 to 10 inches have
fallen around the Eagle Pass area and in counties east of the area
over the Nueces River basin. These amounts of rainfall will produce
runoff over the next few days.
The upper level low is forecast to slowly move back towards
the south and then west. This will shift the heaviest rainfall into
portions of northern Mexico through the weekend.
By early next week, an upper ridge will begin to develop once again
across most of the region. This will bring a return of mild and dry
weather to the WGRFC region early next week.
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Nueces River Basin
and south into northern Mexico.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for deep south Texas and along the coast northeast to
Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only
the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from
abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over
the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall
for runoff to occur. In Texas 70% of the state is abnormally dry,
with 25% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 42% of the state is
also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from
central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas
the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere,
the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.
...Rio Grande Basin...
Very heavy rains overnight from Del Rio to Laredo has generated a
floodwave along the mainstem of the Rio Grande which has arrived in
El Indio, TX and should arrive in Laredo on Saturday. Only minor
flooding is expected at this time in the area.
In the Big Bend region, rainfall over the last few days has caused Rio
Grande near Candelaria (CDET2) to rise over moderate flood levels,
but the river should begin to recover as the upper level low that has
brought the recent rains shifts to the southwest and away from our
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rains in the far western basins of the Nueces River (where it
borders the Rio Grande) will lead to higher than normal flows for the
next few days. The area above Asherton was especially hit hard and will
be monitored to see if runoff actually occurred.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, rivers are at baseflow and are not expected to see rises
through the period.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: