Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 041241
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
740 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

                   VALID AUGUST 4 THROUGH AUGUST 9

...MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO FAR WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas,
Friday through the weekend ending Monday morning. Isolated
amounts may total near 1 inch in some localized area especially
higher elevations.

An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
weather of the WGRFC area of responsibility. Drier air is already
moving into central New Mexico, greatly reducing the chance for
thunderstorms for a couple of days. From Friday through the weekend,
rainfall should be focused to the north of the WGRFC area of
responsibility, along the northern edge of the upper level high.
Some of this activity may enter far northern Texas.  The higher
elevations in New Mexico and southern Colorado are expected to
benefit from a return of monsoonal moisture Friday into Monday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water
according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been
very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two
months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues
to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days
will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep Carrolton
slightly above minor flood stage through the forecast period.  This
will be updated as  further release information is acquired from the
Corps on their projections over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria with no significant
rainfall expected over the forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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