Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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061
AGUS74 KFWR 251631
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2017

                  VALID FEBRUARY 25 THROUGH MARCH 2

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND THROUGH MID WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A strong zonal flow over the WGRFC area will keep Texas dry through
Sunday morning. Snow and rain showers are possible in the mountains
of Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Rain chances in Texas then increase Sunday with a return of onshore
flow from the gulf interacting with an approaching frontal system and
dry line. Basin averaged precipitation amounts are forecast to be
light to moderate and are not expected to cause any flooding
concerns. The best chance for locally moderate rainfall appears to be
Sunday evening through overnight in the eastern half of Texas.
Thereafter, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected for
the southeastern half of Texas each day through Wednesday due to
continued onshore flow, presence of fronts and dryline, and an
approaching upper level disturbance. This upper level disturbance
will also bring rain and snow to northwestern New Mexico and
southwestern Colorado through early Wednesday. Late week looks to be
colder and drier everywhere in the wake of the upper level
disturbance.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of northeastern Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado and northwestern New
Mexico.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of far northeastern Texas and for portions
of southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico.

Rainfall continued to improve the soil moisture conditions across
much of Texas. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas showed the
area considered to be abnormally dry was at 8.4%.  Also, 2% of Texas
was experiencing moderate drought conditions and  less than 1% was in
severe drought. In New Mexico the drought monitor shows around 13% of
the state experiencing  abnormally dry conditions, with 2.5%
remaining in moderate drought. The rainfall forecast the next few
days will not produce new or additional runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers in Texas continue to recede after responding to the early week
rainfall.   Out of bank flows continue in portions of the Brazos,
Trinity, Guadalupe, and San Bernard basins
with minor flooding in the upper Trinity below lake Bridgeport and the
lower Guadalupe near Dupont.   No significant rainfall is forecast
across WGRFC in the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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