Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231608
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017

                     VALID MAY 23 THROUGH MAY 28

...RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY END TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE DRY
DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A closed low pressure system remains over Minnesota this morning.
Upper air disturbances rotating around this low have generated
periods of showers and thunderstorms across Texas the past few
days.  The heaviest rainfall the past 24 hours was over southeast
Texas where the region south of Woodville received nearly 6.50
inches.  The area around Lake Jackson got almost 5.00 inches.
One last reinforcing batch of energy is over northeast New Mexico
this morning which will come charging across the state today.  This
disturbance will push a cold front across Texas which will exit the
WGRFC area late tonight.  This front will help scour the area,
bringing an end to the rain threat for the remainder of the week.

The closed low over Minnesota is forecast to drop south across
Missouri Wednesday and eventually will reform over Ohio Thursday.
The WGRFC area will be on the dry side of this low, with a ridge of
high pressure dominating our region.  Dry weather will result from
Wednesday through Friday.

The upper level pattern will transition to a more zonal flow by
Saturday.  This will allow for warmer temperatures and a return
of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  Rain chances will return to
the WGRFC area by Saturday night and Sunday as an upper air
disturbance  passes to our north.  A little heavier and more
widespread rain is expected toward the end of the holiday weekend as
a new cold front approaches our region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the southeast
third of Texas and northwest Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over the eastern three quarters of
Texas, northeast Mexico and the remainder of Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for south central and southeast Colorado, as well as
over north central and northeast Texas.   MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over the eastern three quarters of
Texas, northeast New Mexico, most of Colorado and western Louisiana.

Soil moisture conditions continue to dry out over the parts of
Texas that have been missed by the most recent rainfall events.
However, the rainfall the past few days has no doubt helped these
dry soils.  The last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area
considered to be abnormally dry is 34%. However, only 6% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought with 1% of the state in severe drought.
In New Mexico, 18% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry
conditions with 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.
The rainfall the next five days will not be heavy enough to produce
new or additional areas of runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent rainfall over the last 24 hours, has caused some minor flooding
across portions of the Neches. Most of these locations are just
beginning to rise and will slowly reach their crests throughout the
week. Future rainfall over the next 5 days is not expected to cause any
additional rises on this river system.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Recent rainfall has caused some higher than normal flows across
portions of the Brazos and Lavaca this morning. These rivers will begin
to slowly fall over the next day or so. Light rainfall is forecast
across Southeast Texas in the next 24 hours, however no flooding is
expected for this area. Overall, no additional rainfall or flooding is
expected the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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