Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221502
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1001 AM CDT WED MAR 22 2017

                   VALID MARCH 22 THROUGH MARCH 27

...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEING REPLACED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A cold front oriented west to east aligned from northern Texas to
Arkansas was responsible for some showers yesterday and some
convection in north and northwest Texas last evening as the front
drifted southward. Rainfall amounts were not hydrologically
significant and any rainfall over the past 24 hours was limited to
these areas. Meanwhile, much of Texas will once again remain
rain-free and warmer than normal before being impacted by a system
advancing from the west.

By later tonight a storm system will bring snow, sometimes
heavy, to the higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico as it
moves west into the WGRFC area. By late Thursday into the early
weekend, this cold front sets the stage for showers and the
potential for periods of severe weather in Texas as it interacts
with a surface dryline and moisture streaming up from the Gulf. As a
result, expect widespread showers later Thursday and Friday...into
Saturday. This activity increases in intensity as it shifts eastward
with the heaviest rainfall expected for the north and east Texas.

Another shortwave is forecast to move through the WGRFC area late
this weekend into early next week once again increasing the
rain chances later on Sunday into Monday.

Another system is forecast to impact the WGRFC area by the middle of
next week indicating an active period which may suggest the beginning
of the spring storm season.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for southern Colorado and northern New Mexico with
up to 0.25 inch for the panhandle of Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches
are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with the heaviest amounts
over the north and eastern portions. Also...MAP amounts of 0.25
to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for southern Colorado and northern
New Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of  0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for northeastern Texas.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions so far this March have caused
some soil moisture loss the past week or so. The last U.S. Drought
Monitor for Texas showed the  area considered to be abnormally dry
was at 29%.  Also, 5% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought
conditions and 1% was in severe drought. In New Mexico the drought
monitor shows 21% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with around 3% remaining in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible at times during the next five
days, but no significant flooding should be expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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