Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 071722
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1123 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
The large storm system which brought the snow and blizzard
conditions to North Dakota and northern Minnesota has moved off
into southern Canada. Residual snow behind the departing system
dropped another 1 to 3 inches from North Dakota to northern
Wisconsin. Water content in that snow was generally light, with
most reports below a tenth of an inch. Some areas did see up to
0.20 to 0.25 inches of water equivalent. Little to no measurable
precipitation was seen from southern Minnesota and Iowa over into
As cold air continues to wrap in behind the large system, light
snow will remain possible through Thursday across parts of
Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes snow belt areas. Any
snow Friday will be confined to the lee of the Lakes. Amounts will
be light for the most part, except for localized higher amounts
where lake effect bands can set up.
Rain and melt over the past two weeks has caused rivers to rise
across much of the region. In Minnesota, slow responding rivers
are finally cresting, including the Crow River - above bankfull
stage at Delano - and the Mississippi River, which is causing
bankfull conditions on the St. Croix at Stillwater The
Mississippi is at a flat crest at St. Paul through Dam 3 in
Hastings. Wisconsin River flows have crested and have caused an
early crest at Dam 10 in Guttenberg.
The rise on the upper Mississippi will continue to travel
downstream toward St. Louis over the next week. While no flooding
is expected on the major rivers, flows are well above normal for
this time of year, leaving the system vulnerable to future runoff.
The USGS lists streamflows in the 90th and above percentiles for
nearly all tributaries north of a line from Des Moines to Quad
Cities to Milwaukee. The Mississippi is above the 75th percentile
all the way to the confluence with the Ohio.
With very cold air finally moving in over the region, there will
be an increased potential for freeze-up ice jams in the next
several days and weeks. People with assets on or near rivers that
are prone to ice jamming should be aware and prepared. Ice jam
flooding can happen fast with very little warning.
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
Emergency Call Back List: JDT...WES ...JMP...RHR
If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.