Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 300044
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
844 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A COLD FNT EXTNDG E TO W ACROSS THE GLF OF MAINE WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TONITE...THEN DSIPT TUE. LOW PRES WILL PASS E
ACROSS THE FAR SRN NT2 WTRS TONITE INTO WED NITE...STALL JUST E OF
THE NRN NT2 WTRS THU INTO FRI...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E FRI NITE.
ANOTHER LOW JUST E OF BERMUDA WILL DRIFT N TUE NITE AND
WED...STALL WED NITE INTO FRI...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E FRI NITE.
ANOTHER COLD FNT WILL MOVE E OVER THE OFSHR AREAS SAT AND SAT
NITE.

MODELS...MAIN FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST W OF
BERMUDA THIS EVNG...SINCE THE MED RNG MDLS ARE ALL OFFERING DIFF
SOLNS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW DURING THE WED
THRU FRI NITE TIMEFRAME. THE GFS 30M IS FINE THRU TUE NITE AND
WILL BE USED FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE ECMWF LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST REPRESENTATIVE MDL SOLN FOR WED UNTIL THE END OF THE FCST
PRD...SO THE ECMWF WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS STARTING ON
WED. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WW3 INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN
GLF OF MAINE WHERE THE NE FLOW IS SIGNIF UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS.
WILL INITIALLY BOOST UP THE MDL SEA HTS BY 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR
TONITE IN GLF OF MAINE...THEN THE MDL OUTPUT COME IN LINE WITH THE
BUOY OBS. SINCE THE ECMWF WILL BE FAVORED FROM WED THRU SAT NITE...WILL
USE THE ECMWF WAM FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PRD.
ALSO...WILL REDUCE THE MDL SEA HTS E OF GEORGES BANK FOR LATE THU
AND FRI.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOF FCSTS VALUES UP TO 1 FT
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE TUE...WHICH PERSIST ON AND OFF
INTO FRI.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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