Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 020029
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...LATEST ASCAT HI-RES PASSES AND BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING
LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE OFSHR WTRS. A STNRY FNT EXTNDS NE TO
SW ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS THIS EVNG...AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKE
DATA SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALG THE FNTL BNDRY S OF 38N.

THE STNRY FNT WILL DRIFT N ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK WARM FNT
TONITE INTO SAT...AS A RIDGE E OF THE REGION BUILDS W TOWARDS THE
WTRS. THE FNT WILL STALL JUST N OF THE NT2 WTRS SUN NIGHT...THEN
DSIPT MON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE OFSHR WTRS MON AND MON
NITE. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL MOVE N AND APPROACH THE SE NT2
WTRS MON NITE...PASS OVER THE SE WATERS TUE...THEN MOVE E OF THE
REGION TUE NITE AND WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ON BERTHA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS TUE
NITE AND WED. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD NW OF THE AREA WED AND WED
NIGHT.

MODELS...GEM/NOGAPS HAVE SIGNIF TIMING PROBLEMS WITH MAIN WX FTRS
DURING THE LATER MON THRU WED NITE PRD...AND ARE NOT PREFERRED MDL
SOLNS ATTM. ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT DURG THE
FCST PRD...BUT FOR NOW THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FCST FOR BERTHA...SO UNLESS THERE ARE SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE NHC
TRACK FCST WITH THE 00Z CYCLE WILL BE USING THE GFS FOR THE WIND
GRIDS.

.SEAS...MULTIGRID WW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE IN GUD AGREEMNT OVER THE
CSTL/OFSHR WTRS INTO EARLY MON. ECMWF WAM LOOKS VRY UNDERDONE WITH
THE SEAS AROUND BERTHA FROM LATER MON THRU WED NITE. AM PLANNING
TO USE THE MWW3 GUIDANCE THRU THE FCST PRD...BUT WILL ADJUST FOR
TRACK OF BERTHA.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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