Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 230822
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
322 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

NEGATIVE TILT VORT LOBE SWINGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND
HELPING TO CREATE A LINE OF STRONG TSTORMS MOVING E AND OFFSHORE
OF TEXAS AND NOW INTO LA COASTAL WATERS. BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS
REPORTING SE WINDS 25-35 KT AND CANNOT IGNORE RECENT GFS FORECASTS
FOR GALES ANY LONGER...AND AM ISSUING GALE FOR SLY INFLOW AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS E AND NE AND INTO FL PANHANDLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GALE IN EFFECT THROUGH 21Z. RECENT ASCAT
PASSES DEPICTING STRONG S-SE FLOW INTO CNVTN ACROSS NW GULF AND
ALSO ON E SIDE OF LLVL TROF ACROSS NE CENTRAL GULF...WHERE A FEW
30+ KT WIND VECTORS ARE DEPICTED. DOWNSTREAM BUOY 42039 REPORTING
10 FT. WILL THUS BE ADJUSTING WINDS AND SEAS UPWARD FOR THE SHORT
TERM ACROSS N GULF.

OTHERWISE... LITTLE CHANGE IN RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING...WITH
MODELS CONTINUING MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH SERIES OF FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT TO DROP SE INTO
NW GULF TONIGHT BEHIND VORT LOBE EXITING INTO W ATLC...WITH A VERY
BRIEF SHOT OF NW WINDS 25 KT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT CONTINUES SE ACROSS GULF...REACHING
FROM JUST NW OF TAMPA BAY TO VERACRUZ AREA BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE INSISTENT IN DRIVING NLY WINDS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT
DOWN MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT AND HAS BLENDED
IN ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
BASIN AND S-SE ALONG GULF COASTAL MEXICO TUE TO TIGHTEN PRES
GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT AND START NLY GALES BY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING GALES OFF VERACRUZ AS EARLY AS 12Z
TUE...WHILE GFS AND UKMET HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL COMPROMISEBY
STARTING AT 18Z FOR BOTH MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AND ZONE BEHIND
FRONT EXTENDING NE TO 88W...WITH GALES CONTINUING BEHIND FRONT
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO NW
CARIB AND STRAITS OF FL. NWPS GENERATING SEAS 10-14 FT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL NOT WATER THIS DOWN. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH END OF WEEK AS FRONT LINGERS ACROSS W
CARIB AND NELY FLOW 20-25 KT PERSISTS ACROSS SE GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS

LOW-MID LVL WAVE MOVING WWD ACROSS NE CARIB PAST FEW DAYS NOW
ALONG 73W...AND HAS OUTRUN WEAKENING TUTT LOW NOW S OF PUERTO
RICO. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH ATLC FRONTAL ZONE INFLUENCING
TRADES ACROSS E AND CENTRAL CARIB WITH FRESH ELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF LOW-MID LVL WAVE WHICH HAS KICKED UP SEAS 7-9
FT FROM JUST S OF MONA PASSAGE W-SW TO 76W. FORCING HIGH ACROSS NW
ATLC WILL SHIFT E NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB E OF 78W FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...AND
RETURN OF NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA NEXT 3 NIGHTS.
GULFMEX FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO NW PORTIONS
WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS 25-30 KT STREAMING S BEHIND FRONT AND
INTO GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU. PARALLEL RUN OF GFS STILL
SHOWING BRIEF GALES IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN IN
W-NW FLOW IN SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...WHICH IS ALSO HINTED AT BY ECMWF. GFS NOT INDICATING THIS
ATTM AND HAVE HELD OFF ON CARIB GALES FOR TIME BEING BEHIND FRONT.
SEAS TO BUILD 9-12 FT BEHIND FRONT AND DRIVE DOWN INTO GULF OF
HONDURAS WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE GRADIENT WEAKENS
QUICKLY ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN AS FRONT ARRIVES WITH WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

BROAD LLVL INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ATLC WWD TO NEAR
50W MON-WED AND INDUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO THE W AND NW DUE TO
ATLC RIDGING...PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED NE FETCH FROM CENTRAL
ATLC ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO E CARIB MON THROUGH
WED NIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SEAS TO BUILD DURING
THIS 9-11 FT AND BLEED THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SE PORTIONS...FROM NEAR 24N65W
THEN W TO W-NW AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH NW
BAHAMAS ATTM. SECONDARY BENIGN FRONTAL ZONE MOVED S AND SW INTO
N PORTIONS PAST 12-18 HOURS TO REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT N OF
FRONT...AND HAS MAINTAINED 25 KT WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30 KT
AND HIGHER W OF 70W THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND TO SE FL COAST
YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH THIS BAND OF STRONG WINDS
SHIFTING WITH WARM FRONT ATTM. SEAS ACROSS THIS ZONE CURRENTLY
10-12 FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 13 FT LIKELY AND RECENTLY REPORTED
BY SHIP NEAR 26N5N75W...WHILE DOWNSTREAM BUOY 41009 HOLDING AT
10-11 FT AND SLAMMING CENTRAL FL COASTS WITH ROUGH AND BUILDING
SURF. WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY WITH STRONG SE WINDS
TO THE NE OF IT SHIFTING N AND GRADUALLY AWAY FROM FL COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO GA AND SC COASTAL WATERS. FLOW TO THEN
SLOWLY VEER WITH SLY WINDS 25-30 KT PREVAILING ACROSS NW PORTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND GALES FARTHER N AND OFFSHORE OF
GA-SC COASTS. ATLC HIGH TO RETREAT TO THE E WITH RIDGE BUILDING SW
TO NW BAHAMAS MON-MON NIGHT AS GULFMEX FRONT MOVES OFF NE FL
COAST AND INTO FAR NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND SLOWLY SE ACROSS W
PORTIONS AND FL PENINSULA TUE. MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT
CONTINUE AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE USED A CONSENSUS...WITH GEFS
CLOSE TO EUROPEAN MODELS. REINFORCING HIGH BUILDING ACROSS GULF
TUE AND TUE NIGHT TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN PRES GRAD BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS NW PORTIONS TUE NIGHT...WITH FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH
NW BAHAMAS WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS TO ALLOW STRONG N TO NW FLOW
TO SPILL SWD BEHIND FRONT DOWN FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND INCREASE TO 30 KT. UNSTABLE FLOW ACROSS WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WED AND WED NIGHT
NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS DEVELOP LOW DEEPENING LOW BY WED
MORNING OFFSHORE OF GS-SC AND LIFT IT NE. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
MODEL OUTPUTS OF LOW AND WIND FIELD W OF FRONT AND WILL HOLD
WINDS CLOSER TO GFS AND AT 30 KT FOR TIME BEING. $$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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