Marine Interpretation Message
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856
AGXX40 KNHC 221857
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnant low pressure center of Harvey is moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone, again, during the next 48 hours, is high. The
low center is forecast to move into the SW corner of the area by
the end of the next 24 hours. A gale warning was issued for 48
hours in the area of the low center, as a precaution, along with
the high chance of tropical cyclone development. It is possible
that the re-invigorated Harvey may reach the coast of South Texas
or on the northern coast of Mexico late on Friday/early on
Saturday. Please see hurricanes.gov for information on the
development of the remnants of Harvey.

Broad surface low pressure, in the form of a weak low pressure
center or a surface trough, extends from the Straits of
Florida into the Atlantic Ocean just to the NW of the NW Bahamas.
This feature is expected to move across the Florida peninsula
through mid week, then stall in the southeast Gulf on Thursday,
before moving northeast and across Florida again toward the
Atlantic as high pressure builds in the central Gulf in the wake
of the possible tropical cyclone moving through the western
Gulf. This low pressure will have minimal impact on winds and
seas. It may serve as a focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active in the
northwest Caribbean Sea and into the south central/central Gulf
of Mexico. The precipitation is related to convergent low level
flow into what may be a re-developing remnant low of Harvey, now
moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave south of
Hispaniola will move across the central Caribbean Sea tonight and
on Wednesday, and across the western Caribbean later in the
week. Strong trade winds will pulse off the coasts of northeast
Colombia and northwest Venezuela in the wake of the tropical
wave. A trough will move to the north of the region from the
Leeward Islands to the Windward Passage Wed and Thu. This will
keep high pressure relatively weak north of the area resulting in
modest trade wind flow elsewhere through the next several days.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida into the
Atlantic Ocean just to the NW of the NW Bahamas. This trough will
move westward across the Florida peninsula through mid week. The
trough will be accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba.
High pressure is building northeast of the Bahamas in the wake of
the trough. This will support a pulse of strong coastal winds
off northern Hispaniola later today. Another trough well to the
east of the area in the central Atlantic will pass 65W in the
Atlantic waters south of 22N by mid week, reaching the Windward
Passage by Thu. This feature may become absorbed by a another
trough expected to develop off the east central Florida coast
later in the week, related to the trough currently in the
Bahamas. Looking ahead, some model guidance indicates this may
form into low pressure off northeast Florida by Sat, but some
uncertainty remains.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Fri night.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Fri.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     Gale Warning Thu.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster MT. National Hurricane Center.



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