Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 170703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1017 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N85W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAINLY
5-10 KT WINDS DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT BASIN-WIDE. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO THE NE GULF WITH THE PARENT
COLD FRONT STILL TO THE N AND INLAND. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD SW FLORIDA SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING
CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W
BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT MORNING. WHILE A LINE OF TSTMS IS
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT NO
OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
5-15 KT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
72W AND 80W COMBINED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO A PARENT CYCLONE NEAR 17N82W IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS
THIS AREA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS BASIN-
WIDE...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 10-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT...WHILE 5-15 KT AND 1-3 FT SEAS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
55W/56W HAS AN ESTIMATED WESTWARD MOTION OF 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 18-24 HOURS...THEN THROUGH
THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 36W/37W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SUN. AS FAR AS SEAS GO...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AT 4-7 FT SEAS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH 4-6
FT SEAS IN MIXED SE AND NE SWELL THEREAFTER.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/SEAS.

HIGH PRES IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR
26N69W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W-SW NEAR BIMINI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 70W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
NEAR 28N67W EXTENDS A TROUGH S-SW TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS AND
TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT E OF 77W WITH THE AID OF SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD...AND 1-3 FT W OF 77W...EXCEPT
BUILDING SEAS NEAR THE CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO 26N79W FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
STALLING BACK ACROSS THE NW PORTION SUN. WEAK LOW PRES IS STILL
FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT
IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 8
FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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