Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 250743
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
243 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf and currently extends from
central Louisiana to just south of Brownsville Texas. Fresh to
strong northerly winds follows the front with seas of 6-7 ft.
This system will move across the northern Gulf waters through
tonight, then lift northward as a warm front Sunday, ahead of a
low pressure system that will be tracking across Texas and
Louisiana, and to the north of the area on Monday and Tuesday.
Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico in association with a weak high pressure of
1012 mb centered over the NE Gulf near 27N86W. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will dominate the western Gulf on Sunday,
spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf on Monday.
Seas will remain generally below 6 ft. By Monday evening, expect
increasing winds to 20 kt near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. This
weather pattern is expected again on Tuesday evening. The next
cold front will enter the Gulf region on Wednesday. Northerly
winds in the 20-30 kt range are expected behind the front with
seas building up to 9-10 ft. The front will reach from the
western Florida Panhandle to near Tuxpan Mexico by Wednesday
night. Gale conditions are possible over the SW Gulf in association
with this front on Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A weak pressure pattern across the basin is resulting in mainly
gentle to moderate winds over the Caribbean. The pressure
gradient across the area will begin to increase tonight as high
pressure builds over the SW north Atlantic. This will result in
moderate to fresh trade winds over the southern Caribbean tonight
with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The trades
across the entire Caribbean will increase by Sunday night as
stronger high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Strong
nocturnal flow is then expected along the NW coast of Colombia,
with gale conditions possible during the overnight and early
morning hours Monday through Wednesday. Fresh to locally strong
NE-E flow is expected across the north-central Caribbean, and to
the lee of Cuba, including also the Windward Passage Sunday night
into Monday morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected across
the east and central Caribbean, including also the Gulf of
Honduras on Monday night. At that time, moderate E-SE winds are
forecast across the NW Caribbean and near the coast of Nicaragua.
Seas are forecast to build to 13-14 ft near the coast of Colombia
Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the gale force
winds, and again Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The strong low pressure system, that has been affecting the area
during the previous days, is now located near 30N75W. The associated
cold front extends from 30N67W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands.
The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong southerly
winds within 120 nm ahead of the front, particularly north of 25N.
The low is forecast to track northeast and out of the forecast
area today. This will allow winds to gradually decrease and seas
to slowly diminish, despite lingering swell subsiding over the
northeastern zones. The next cold front will move into the NW waters
tonight, reaching from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by Sunday evening,
and east of the forecast zones by Monday. Fresh to locally strong
NW winds are briefly expected behind the front tonight into early
Sunday morning with seas of 6-7 ft. High pressure in the wake of
the front will support moderate to fresh NE-E winds across much
of the area on Monday. Then, the high will shift eastward extending
a ridge across the forecast waters through Wednesday. Under the
influence of the ridge, expect fresh easterly winds across the
waters south of 22N Monday through Wednesday, with seas building
to 7-8 ft east of the Bahamas mainly on Monday night into Tuesday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
 GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
 GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.



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