Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 011850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS BLENDED 12Z GFS THROUGH FRI...AND GFS
WITH 12 ECMWF SAT ONWARD. USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS TAMPA BAY TO THE NE TX COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF
WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS
AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE.
LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER OUTWARD
AROUND THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SW-W 10-15 KT WINDS
EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION
CONTINUES TO BE THE THERMAL TROUGH 20-25 KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL
MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECT AN E-SE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A SMALL AND ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF AT 26N84W. THIS FEATURE IS ALONG A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SSW THROUGH THIS LOW
...AND TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE UNDERNEATH
THIS THE LOW AND TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
N OF 25N E OF 85W. HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR THE WESTERN GULF FROM 20N TO 27N W OF
94W AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE COMBINING WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS NEARBY HAS HELPED SET OFF THIS ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES
SPREADING OUT FROM IT IS BRINGING GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS ALONG AND NEAR THE NE
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTS ALONG WITH SEAS BRIEFLY RISING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THERE INTO TONIGHT INTO THU.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NEAR SE LOUISIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS BLENDED 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NOCTURNAL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE
IS EXPECTED AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THU...FRI
AND SAT NIGHTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ENTERING THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND INLAND THU MORNING.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE AREA S
OF 15N ALONG 30W IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 55W ON SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS BLENDED 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
NEAR 30N65W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY FLOW N
OF THE RIDGE WILL PULSE TO 15-20 KT AS WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE
SE GA COAST...BUT IMMEDIATELY STALL AND WASH OUT OVER THE WATERS
JUST OFFSHORE NE FL/SE GA. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF
THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
GALE WARNING THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITHIN 90 NM OF
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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