Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 030720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC MAP ALONG THE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO NEAR 28N87W. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF...PARTICULARLY N OF 27N
E OF 85W BASED ON THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE UNITED
STATES. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW
PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS N FLORIDA AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
LOW CENTER OVER THE NE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AS THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF REGION WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N84W. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
WED MORNING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GROW AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN EXPAND
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. IN ADDITION...EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE N OF AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED...REACHING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE FORECAST
REGION AND A LOW PRES AREA LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS ACCORDING TO THE MOST
RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE
AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NE THROUGH GA AND OFF THE COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUE...A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO W WATERS WEAKENING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE WED AND WILL PERSIST
ON THU.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO ENHANCE WINDS THERE BY TONIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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