Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 261803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT 17Z BUOY 42055 REPORTED 6 FT SEAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO FORM EACH DAY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOW
PRES MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUN AND MON WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BUOY REPORTS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SHOWED WINDS HAD ALREADY SUBSIDED
TO 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT AND SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. A LIGHTER WIND REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC
UNTIL MON OR TUE...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N IS NO LONGER
WEAKENED BY LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS SITUATED OVER VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN AT 12Z WITH AN ANALYZED WAVE AXIS NEAR 66W.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE. MORE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVES WERE LOCATED NEAR
56W AND 42W.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NNE-SSW THROUGH THE LOW. SCATTEROMETERS ALL MISSED THE
WIND FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM SO LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
DOWN SHEAR NE QUADRANT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO FOLLOWS
THIS WIND STRUCTURE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...TAKING IT TOWARD THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 1225Z INDICATED A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF GENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF GENESIS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED. WENT SEVERAL
KNOTS ABOVE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND
CARRIED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WHEN THE LOW CROSSES 31N. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 8
TO 10 FEET ON FRIDAY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT S OF THE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS GENTLE TO
MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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