Marine Interpretation Message
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659
AGPN40 KWNM 170329
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
729 PM PST MON JAN 16 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Satelit pictures continues to show a strong wave approaching the
Washington and Oregon waters. There are gale winds in advance of
this system. I do not expect to make any changes to the current
grids or associated text forecst for the upcoming packge. The
overall pattern remains very dynamic and progressive.
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The satellite imagery still shows mostly cloudy skies over the
northwest waters. The lightning density map has continued to sho
little to no lightning strikes over the region including the
cloudy areas. The satellite picture also continues to depict
anticyclonic circulation across the southern waters. The latest
observations including scatterometer passes at 1820Z show that
higher winds over the north waters have increased and are now in
the gale force range. The 1800Z NCEP map has low pressre 968 mb in
the gulf of AK that now has a cold front stretching south and then
southwest. Low pressure 986 mb near 45N142W has a warm front that
stretches Northeast into the far north waters. High pressure 1027
MB to the west of the southern waters has its ridge extending
northeast into the central waters. Inland trough stretches near
the coast from southern CA into the cental CA. The pressure
gradient is just tight over the far north waters but remains very
relaxed elsewhere over the forecast waters.


The models GFS/NAM/CMC/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR/NOGAPS have initialized
fairly well with the 18Z observations. The models are also in good
agreement in the short term on keeping the high pressure to the
west of the southern waters and allowing low pressure to move
northeast and pass just northwest of the WA waters. Models have
also good agreement in the long range except for just monor
differences on the second low pressure that Will pass just
northwest of the waters. ECMWFHR puts the track of the low across
the northern waters while GFS has it passing just Northwest. In
the the upper levels, the models indicate that there will be a
stream of energy passing the nothern waters through most of the
period and so will seek a model that will allow a modest gradient
over the waters. The pressure gradient should become fairly tight
to keep gale force winds in the waters and will support a model
that will allow even stronger winds just east of the forecast
region near Oregon waters. In the short term, the pressure
gradient over the north waters will continue to tighten and allow
winds to remain at gale force strength but the southern half will
remain with a relaxed pressure gradient.

.SEAS...The seas range between 6 and 9 ft over the forecast region
with peak seas at 10 ft over the northwest. NWW3 wave model fits
very well with he observed seas pattern and is in good agreement
with the ECMWFWAVE model thuough most of the forecast period. Will
stay with NWW3 for the seas.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.



.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Saturday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Tuesday.
     Gale Wednesday.
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
     Storm Possible Saturday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Tuesday into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Tuesday into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday into Saturday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Tuesday into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday into Saturday.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday into Saturday.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ945...Outer Waters from 120W to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday into Saturday.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw/Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.



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