Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 220347
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
847 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

00Z NCEP FINAL SFC ANAL PLACED A WK LOW CNTR OVR FAR N WA WTRS
WITH A WK OCFNT AND CDFNT TRAILING S AND SW ACRS PZ5 AREA AND
ENTERING NW OREGON WTRS...WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES FARTHER
W. PRESENCE OF LOW AND FNT HAVE WEAKENED GRADIENT OFF CENTRAAL AND
NRN CA WITH MOST RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY FM MRNG ONLY SHOWING
HIGHEST WNDS 17-23 KT FM NW PART OF CENTRAL CA WTRS TO THE NRN CA
INNER WTRS NR CAPE MENDOCINO. THE 18Z GFS 30M WNDS APPR
REPRESENTATIVE. WITH GFS CONTINUING TO AGREE WITH MDL CONSENSUS
WILL USE 18Z GFS FOR WNDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN NO SGFNT CHANGES IN
EVENING UPDATE. WNDS CONTG SUBGALE THRU PRD AS HI PRES REBUILDS
FRI INTO SAT WHILE CSTL TROF STRENGTHENS...WITH BOTH PERSISTING
THRU TUE NIGHT BUT WITH RDG WKNG SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. STRONGEST
WNDS OF 30 KT EXPECTED NR NRN CA CST OR SRN OREGON PT ST GEORGE
AREA OVR WEEKEND.

SEAS...INITIALIZED 8 FT OR LESS OFSHR AND CSTL WTRS BASED ON 00Z
SEA STATE ANAL. 18Z MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH ENP VERSION LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE AND WL BE USED FOR EVENING UPDATE WITH ECMWF WAM
CLOSE.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...THE 12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES CNTRD NW OF
THE PZ5 WTRS NEAR 51N132W WITH A WARM FNT EXTNDG SE INTO THE WRN
PZ5 WTRS AND A COLD FNT TRAILING SW OF THE LOW CNTR. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SE OVER THE WASH OFSHR WTRS THU...THEN DSIPT AS IT REACHES
THE WASH CST THU NITE. THE COLD FNT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE WASH/ORE
OFSHR AREAS THU...THEN DSIPT THU NITE. A LOW PRES TROF WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE CALIF CST THRU THE FCST PRD...WHILE STRENGTHENING
FRI INTO MON. LONGER PERIOD S AND SW SWELL FROM HURCN LOWELL IS
EXPCTD TO ENTER THE SRN PZ6 ZONES FROM THU INTO TUE. OTHW...A HI
PRES RDG WILL BLD E INTO THE WASH/ORE/NOCAL OFSHR WTRS DURING THE
FCST PRD. MAX WINDS OF 30 KT ARE EXPCTD OVER THE ERN PART OF THE
SRN ORE/NOCAL OFSHR WTRS AND CSTL WTRS ARND SAT NITE AND SUN.

MODELS...THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT
THRU THE FCST PRD. THE MDLS KEEP THE WINDS SUB-GALE OVER ALL OF
THE ZONES DURING THE FCST PRD. WILL USE THE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS
30M TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...INITIALIZED 8 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE OFSHR ZONES IN 18Z RP1
SEA STATE ANALYSIS...WHICH IS VRY CLOSE TO THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3
AND 12Z ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE. THE SEA STATE MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD
AGREEMNT WITH EACH OTHER THRU THE FCST PRD...SO WILL USE THE ENP
VERSION OF THE 12Z MWW3 TO POPULATE THE WAVE HT GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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