Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 271758
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016

THE PATTERN IS BLOCKY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH
RETROGRESSION SEEN ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA INTO AK WHILE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS SLIP UNDER THE BASE OF A BLOCKING HIGH IN
EASTERN SIBERIA.  RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA.  THE
GUIDANCE SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART, GENERALLY
CONFINED TO LATITUDE ISSUES WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC.  WITH AN EYE TOWARDS CONTINUITY WHILE STILL REFLECTING
SOME OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE, USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS/12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ADDING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE INTERMEDIATE 00Z
NAEFS MEAN INTO THE MIX.  THIS SOLUTION KEPT REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

SKIES START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE (OUTSIDE
THE PANHANDLE) EARLY ON, BEFORE A RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
CLOUDINESS IN FROM THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD, WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S AND HIGHS NEAR 70.  RAIN IS MOST LIKELY IN THE AK
PANHANDLE AS A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOST
QUESTIONABLE/UNCERTAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AK
DEPENDING UPON THE ULTIMATE LATITUDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONE MID NEXT
WEEK.

ROTH

$$




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