Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 240923
SWOD48
SPC AC 240923

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE THIS FEATURE SLOWLY
EWD ON THURSDAY/DAY 4 WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CNTRL
AND ERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST BY
FRIDAY/DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WEST TO
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SFC HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NATION
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SETUP FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MOIST AXIS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE SRN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY/DAY 7 APPEARS UNLIKELY
BECAUSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FORECAST RANGE...A
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

..BROYLES.. 11/24/2014


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