Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 210538
SWODY1
SPC AC 210536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BACK SLIGHTLY SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...NRN FL/SRN GA...
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY POOR LAPSE RATES...AT
LEAST SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH
MUCAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING MOVES
EAST...MOST AVAILABLE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT PRESENT...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

..BUNTING.. 12/21/2014



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