Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 230502
SWODY1
SPC AC 230501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS
THURSDAY AS LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT WHERE FAVORED REGIONS
OF ASCENT ARE EXPECTED.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARDS MOIST DEEP CONVECTION AS OFFSHORE FLOW
INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE U.S.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING CYCLONE.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD MOIST
ASCENT WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
CONVECTION THAT COULD ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...SOUTH FL...

FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS AS SRN INFLUENCE OF
SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT NECESSARY FOR WEAK CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

...PACIFIC NW...

PROFILES WILL COOL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WA COAST
SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS COULD REACH LEVELS AS HIGH AS 6KM...MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR LIGHTING PRODUCTION.  GREATEST RISK ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  FARTHER INLAND...A FEW
STORMS COULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS ERN WA
INTO FAR WESTERN MT.

..DARROW/MARSH.. 10/23/2014




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