Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 040602
SWODY1
SPC AC 040600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL NV...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA PROVIDING COOL AIR ALOFT FOR DAYTIME STORMS. TO THE
W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. TO THE N...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
GLANCE THE NRN PLAINS FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DAYTIME AND EVENING STORMS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN
NEB.

TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS NRN CA AND THE
WRN GREAT BASIN...PROVIDING LIFT AND MOISTENING FOR CLUSTERS OF
STORMS DURING THE DAY.

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING AND A NWD FLUX OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS NEAR THE SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY...IN A N-S ORIENTATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EARLY WAVE PRECEDING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA...THEN RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
WITH HAIL AND WIND. A SEPARATE BATCH OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN MT...INTO WRN/NRN ND WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO.

FARTHER S DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS S
CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB...WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS FAR S AS NWRN
KS. GIVEN THE LONG HODOGRAPHS...A SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

...OK/TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A WEAK/WASHED-OUT BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING
TO THE S AS A RESULT OF HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN TO SLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS GIVEN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONALLY...THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND OR HAIL GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. PORTIONS OF OK AND NRN TX MAY BE UPGRADED A TARGETED SLIGHT
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

TO THE E...A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA...MS...AND AL.
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW
AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SLIGHT RISK.

...GREAT BASIN...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z OVER
MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN NV. GIVEN THE SHEER NUMBER OF STORMS AS WELL
AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND/OR SMALL HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SHEAR PROFILES AND
THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR TO PARTICULARLY FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER.

..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 07/04/2015



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