Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 180515
SPC AC 180514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from Texas eastward
across portions of the Gulf Coast states today and tonight.

A split in the flow field aloft will prevail over the U.S. today, as
fast/low-amplitude westerlies persist over the northern half of the
U.S., while an upper low cut-off from the westerlies farther north
drifts slowly eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border.

Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the southeast U.S. ahead of the
slowly advancing upper system, but weak disturbances moving through
the anticyclonic flow field should allow convection -- ongoing at
the start of the period -- to continue through the day over the Gulf
Coast region.

Farther west, a gradual increase in isentropic ascent across Texas
ahead of the upper low should support an increase in potential for
showers and embedded/elevated thunderstorms through the second half
of the period.  However, weak instability in all areas should
preclude any appreciable severe potential.

..Goss/Leitman.. 12/18/2017

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