541
ACUS01 KWNS 040054
SWODY1
SPC AC 040052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary risks.

...01z Outlook...

Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the
evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the
Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much
of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts
are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an
instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg.
Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the
international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust
severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account
for this activity spreading east of the River.

Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a
cold front that is surging southeast across south-central
NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline
supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate
southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the
organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher
severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with
this squall line.

..Darrow.. 05/04/2024

$$