Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 300432
SWODY2
SPC AC 300431

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  STRONG STORMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

...NRN PLAINS...

BC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO SK BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS 50-60KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO SERN SK BY
01/12Z.  HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE LIMITED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND APPARENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH
OF THE MRGL RISK SUNDAY.  EVEN SO...TRAILING SFC FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE INTO NERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A PRONOUNCED LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE
BLACK HILLS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FOCUS POTENTIAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 22Z.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE N-S BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING WHERE CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
3KM DUE TO STRONG SFC HEATING.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO CNTRL ND DURING
THE LATE EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...

STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY IS
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
LOW SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO THE EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING LLJ IMPINGING ON A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE DRAPED
ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER INTO NRN MO.  LATEST NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AN MCS-TYPE COMPLEX OF STORMS ALONG/NORTH
OF THIS WIND SHIFT...LIKELY DUE TO ITS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ THAN THE
GFS.  IF DAY1 CONVECTION DOES NOT OVERTURN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
REGION THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND/HAIL.

...ELSEWHERE...

ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN
BORDER DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  WHILE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM/SERN AZ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS EFFICIENT IN GENERATING COLD POOL-DRIVEN
OUTFLOW AS TSTM ACTIVITY FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED.

..DARROW.. 07/30/2016

$$



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