Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 030602
SWODY2
SPC AC 030600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS WELL.

...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED INTO
THURSDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SOUTHWARD-DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER
CA/SOUTHWEST STATES AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THE EAST-NORTHEAST EDGE OF A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION NEAR A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE-RELATED WARMING/CAPPING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MCS IMPACTS/OUTFLOW...AND THE UNCERTAIN SPATIAL DETAILS
THEREOF...CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST DETAILS.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN A
NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS THE WY/CO FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE AID OF MOIST/MODESTLY
UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO RISK.

FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MO
VALLEY...FORECAST DETAILS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MCS AND RELATED OUTFLOW/CLOUD COVER. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WHILE MODEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING ARE POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY...THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO MAY BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR OUTFLOW /POTENTIALLY LOCATED ACROSS KS OR
SOUTHERN NEB/ RELATED TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MCS...AND TO THE NORTHEAST /ACROSS KS/ OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TRIPLE POINT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A RELATED COLD
FRONT...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/03/2015



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