Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO EASTERN VA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

...CAROLINAS AND VA/GA...
A DEEP/PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24-48
HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A PROBABLE STALL OR EVEN A WEST/NORTH
RETREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE INLAND-EXTENSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF THE REGION...WITH UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT. A KEY
THERMODYNAMIC-RELATED UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED EARLY-DAY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION /1500+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS PLAUSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT AND A RELATED WEAK FRONTAL WAVE.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING/BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST
PENDING SUFFICIENT WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING GIVEN
GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. MARGINAL PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY
APPEAR PRUDENT GIVEN SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...BUT A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT-RISK UPGRADE COULD ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 09/27/2016

$$



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