Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 220720
SWODY3
SPC AC 220719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude shortwave trough will move quickly through the mid MS
and TN Valleys during the day before moving off the Mid-Atlantic
coast overnight. In its wake, upper ridging will translate eastward
from the Intermountain West into the Plains while a southern-stream
shortwave trough moves slowly across northern Mexico. Farther west,
a series of shortwave troughs will contribute to eastward
progression and modest amplification of troughing over the western
CONUS.

Sensible weather across the southern Plains and Southeast will be
dominated by surface high pressure while modest lee troughing
develops over the High Plains. A cold front will push through the
Pacific Northwest and adjacent northern CA early in the period,
continuing eastward into the northern Rockies/Great Basin. Shallow
convection is possible along the front but warm temperatures aloft
will likely prevent updrafts from becoming deep enough to produce
lightning. Shallow convection is also possible within the
post-frontal environment but cool surface temperatures and modest
moisture will temper instability and preclude lightning production.

..Mosier.. 01/22/2018

$$


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