Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 280725
SWODY3
SPC AC 280724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WHILE OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  SOME SEVERE RISK IS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY WHERE MOST VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD INTO/ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...A MUCH STRONGER/LARGER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THOUGH RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LEAD FEATURE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...NEAR A SHARP COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM...AND PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MT/WRN AND CENTRAL ND/NWRN SD...
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS
ACROSS ERN MT/WY TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.  THOUGH RELATIVELY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 60/ SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...A FEW ROBUST/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
NONETHELESS ANTICIPATED GIVEN ROUGHLY 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING
INTO/ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY INCREASING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IN A
LINEAR FASHION MAY OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RISK SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER IN THE EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH OVERNIGHT
AIRMASS STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 08/28/2014



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