Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 230642
SWODY3
SPC AC 230641

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and storms are expected in portions of the
southern Great Plains.  The severe risk with this activity is
expected to be minimal.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough will continue to remain nearly stationary near the
Four Corners region, while a ridge persists across the Northeast.
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across from the base of the
trough across the southern Rockies northeastward to the western
Great Lakes region, although this flow should be comparatively
weaker compared to previous days.

At the surface, a cold front will continue to migrate slowly
southward across the central Plains and Mississippi Valley, and
should be located from the Texas South Plains northeastward to
western Wisconsin by early evening.  Ahead of this front, 60s F
dewpoints will be common, with somewhat higher boundary layer
moisture (i.e., 70s F dewpoints) across south Texas and the Gulf
Coast.

Continued convergence along the surface front and daytime heating
will foster several areas of convection throughout the day -
especially from southwest Texas into central Kansas.  Mid-level
lapse rates remain a limiting factor for a more widespread severe
threat.  Shear will also be limited due to relatively weak low- and
mid-level flow.  The overall risk for damaging wind gusts appears to
be too sparse to include severe probabilities at this time.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

$$



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