Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NRN FL...SERN
GA...ERN SC AND COASTAL NC...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM FAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

...FAR NRN FL/SE GA/ERN SC/COASTAL NC...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING A TROPICAL STORM TO
MOVE ACROSS NRN FL ON THURSDAY/DAY 2 AND ALONG THE COASTS OF SC AND
NC ON FRIDAY/DAY 3. AT THE START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD...NHC HAS THE
TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE COAST IN FAR SERN GA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF SC DURING THE MORNING AND ALONG
THE NC COAST JUST OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST VERSION OF
THE ECMWF REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC FORECAST ON THE TRACK
BUT IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE NEWD MOVEMENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
START THE MARGINAL RISK AREA NEAR THE FL-GA STATELINE FOR EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE COAST IN THE 12Z/FRI TO 15Z/FRI TIMEFRAME
POTENTIALLY MAKING THE TORNADO THREAT GREATEST IN FAR SE GA AND FAR
SRN SC FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM MAY BE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY
INTERACTION WITH THE NRN FL LANDMASS TO KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
MARGINAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY 3 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 08/31/2016

$$



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