Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310250 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

Corrected discussion section to include low near 09N105W

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical axis is along 92W/93W from 07N to 12N moving westward
at 13 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection have flared up within 240 nm east of the wave axis.
from 07N to 13N between 87W and 91W. Low pressure may form along
the wave as it moves to near 95W/96W late on Tuesday.

A tropical wave is just inland southern Panama and northwest
Colombia near 78W south of 13N moving westward at 10-15 kt. The
wave is helping to produce widely scattered thunderstorms over
much of Panama and southern Costa Rica. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted over portions of northwest Colombia. The wave is
forecast to out across the eastern Pacific waters tonight.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to low
pressure near 09N105W 1012 mb to 12N114W to low pressure near
13N119W 1011 mb to 10N124W, then transitions to ITCZ axis from
10N124W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection exists within 240 nm south of the
axis between 89W and 92W...also south of the trough from 04N to
07N between 105W and 108W...and from 07N to 09N between 111W and
113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the axis between 95W and 97W.

...DISCUSSION...

The subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters N of about
15N and west of 115W. A cold front is within about 250 nm to the
northwest of the area. It is being blocked by high pressure
north of the area, and is expected to become stationary west of
140W during the next 36-48 hours. A persistent low pressure area
near 13N119W of 1011 mb is moving southeastward at 15 to 20 kt.
Latest satellite imagery shows a cluster of scattered moderate
convection within 60 nm of the low in its northeast quadrant.
An Ascat pass from 1804Z showed northerly winds 15 to 20 kt on
the northwest periphery of the low. The low is forecast to
strengthen slightly as it nears 10N117W by Wednesday afternoon.
The same Ascat pass revealed gentle trade winds over most of the
area north of the convergence zone outside the vicinity of the
low, and mainly light southerly winds to the south. A weak low
pressure area is near 09N105W. It is forecast to reach near
10N107W Tuesday afternoon, and to near 10N111W by Wednesday
afternoon. The main marine issue with respect to both lows
through Wednesday will be a swell area moving from the south
and southwest through much of the south/central and southeast
portions of the area. The swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft.
Seas to 10 feet are in a few small spots in the eastern portion
of the area from 05N to 06N between 109W and 111W. The swell
area will be slowly shrinking in size over the next 48 hours.

$$
Aguirre


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