Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. ISELLE CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 125.7W AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. ISELLE IS
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE MORE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N111W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N110.5W. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W.
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED
LIMITED WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 09N88W TO 08N98W
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N110.5W TO 14N120W...THEN RESUMES SW
OF T.S. ISELLE NEAR 14N125W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N137W TO
12N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N E
OF 78W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND
85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
105W AND 109W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 19N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE
NE TO NEAR 26N124W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
125W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N110W. IN
BETWEEN...THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N122W TO 22N121W TO 18N125W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N111W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS A TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR
07N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO
INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 88W.

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE LOW PRES
LOCATED NEAR 12N137W AND NOW IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND NE SWELL
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS N OF THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS W OF
140W.

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$
GR



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