Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave north of 08N along 89W is moving slowly westward
with associated convection inland over Central America. Another
tropical wave north of 06N along 94W is moving west at 10 kt
with associated convection within 75 nm east of the axis south
of 12N. The waves are forecast to move slowly westward during
the next 48 hours and become embedded within a larger area of
broad low pressure south of Mexico early next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward across Panama and Costa
Rica from area of low pressure in northern Colombia near 09N75W
to 09N83W to 11N89W to 10N95W to 13N108W to 08N124W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm either side of the axis between 107W
and 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds in the northern Gulf of California have diminished
tonight as the pressure gradient across NW Mexico weakens. Light
and variable winds are expected in the Gulf of California this
weekend, as well as south of Tehuantepec, where a weak low is
expected to develop near 12N10W. Gentle NW winds and 4-6 ft seas
will prevail elsewhere through Sunday. A tropical wave moving
south of southern Mexico will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms the next couple of days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will become better established over southern
Central America this weekend as a tropical wave along 89W moves
further west. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of
08N with 4-5 ft seas. South of 08N, moderate to fresh south to
southwest winds are expected with seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is in place across the tropics
and subtropics, resulting in a large area of gentle to moderate
trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. A weak ridge will build over
NW waters near 30N133W this weekend and meander over the area
into early next week. As this ridge develops, winds south of 20N
and north of the convergence zone will increase slightly and
increase seas to 6-8 ft by Monday evening.

$$
Mundell



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