Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210320
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is not identifiable at this time. The ITCZ
extends from 05N93W to 04N140W. No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of
unusually large swell will affect much of the area during the
coming week...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A small area of strong southwest winds is north of 30N in the
Gulf of California ahead of a cold front moving into Baja
California Norte. Large northwest swell of 12 to 18 ft are
moving into offshore waters off Baja California Norte. Winds and
seas will increase north of 27N ahead of the cold front tonight.
This will be the start of a significant large swell and heavy
surf event sweeping into the tropics from the northern Pacific.
Dangerous surf conditions will primarily affect the coast of
Baja California through early Sunday. By late Sunday, seas will
build to 20 ft off Baja California Norte and Guadelupe Island,
with seas to 12 ft reaching Socorro Island. Ridging behind the
front will allow strong northerly winds spreading to southern
Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes by early Sunday.
Looking ahead, high pressure building behind a strong cold front
in the Gulf of Mexico will allow gap winds to gale force into
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Monday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southeast to east winds will generally prevail
across the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft
in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Scatterometer data shows mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to
20N. A ridge will build along 25N through late Sunday, allowing
trade winds to strengthen over much of the area north of 10N.
Altimeter data shows seas 10 to 15 ft north of 24N. Winds will
increase to near gale force north of 28N through Saturday night
between 120W and 130W, along with seas to as high as 24 ft, then
gradually diminish into early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater
due primarily to northerly swell will build southward into the
deep tropics through early next week.

$$
Mundell


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