Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170329
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon have begun to
increase across the gulf this evening, as a cold front in the NW
Gulf of Mexico continue to shift SE. High pressure building
behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient over the
area, and help increase winds to strong gales across Tehuantepec
tonight, reaching 45 kt by around sunrise and continue
throughout the day. Winds are expected to gradually diminish
below gale force by Friday afternoon. The resultant plume of NE
swell has propagated well southwest of Tehuantepec, with seas to
8 ft and higher currently reaching as far S as the Equator and
as far W as 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N78.5W TO 08.5N85W TO 05N95W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N95W TO 09N131W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
03.5N to 09N between 77W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
105W and 120W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection was noted within 180 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ
between 120W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special feature section for information about the ongoing
gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell continues to
propagate SE across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula, with
seas of 8 to 12 ft prevailing. This large swell will generate
high and powerful surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja
and mainland Mexico through Wed. Another pulse of NW swell will
reach the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Thursday
night. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft by
Friday. Seas 12 ft or greater will spread across the offshore
waters off the entire length of the Baja Peninsula through the
weekend.

Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across
across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief
period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night across
the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of
09N moderate offshore gap winds will diminish to light to gentle
midweek. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large, long period NW swell is propagating SE across the
forecast waters. Seas in the 12 to 14 ft range prevail W of a
line from 30N116W TO 15N120W TO 10N125W. Seas of 8 ft or greater
associated to this swell prevail W of 110W. The next pulse of
large NW swell will enter the NW waters Wednesday night, with
seas peaking near 18 ft. This swell will build seas greater than
12 ft over much of the waters N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat
night.

$$
SS



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