Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220918
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR 15N93W TO 7N93W MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N120W TO 11N121W MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 139W IS NOW W OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N118W
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO
11N BETWEEN 117W AND 119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W TO 119W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 8N87W TO 7N95W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N103W TO 10N116W THEN RESUMES NEAR
10N121W 8N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 110W AND
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W AND 141W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
114W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N W OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N108W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON ITCZ MAINLY BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N127W TO 23N124W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N136W. THIS CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE BUT IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH A
1019 MB HIGH E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 30N123W AND A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING S-SW TO 22N117W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED W
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF
20N W OF 127W. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING AREA S OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENS LATER TODAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND
GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 28N TODAY
AND STRONG BREEZES BY EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8
FT TODAY THEN EXPANDING W ON WED WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTH WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
COUPLED WITH THE PRESENT TROPICAL WAVE WILL GIVE THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC STRONG BREEZE FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN WED MORNING.

$$
PAW



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