026
FXUS61 KALY 011355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
955 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly clear and warm weather for much
of the upcoming weekend along with low humidity. A weak
disturbance could bring some spotty showers during Sunday
night, especially for areas south of Interstate 90. Mostly dry
and warm weather continues early next week before chances for
rainfall increase toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT...Although a large upper level low remains
closed off just offshore Atlantic Canada, it remains far enough
away to keep any clouds and precip from the local area. Upper
level ridge axis is centered just west of the region over
western New York. With a dry northerly flow in place, visible
satellite imagery shows completely clear skies over the entire
region, with no cloud cover anywhere. Based on the latest
satellite imagery, will expect fully sunny skies to continue
through the entire day today with no precip.

The 12z KALY sounding shows plenty of dry air in place throughout
the column. PWAT values are only 0.61 inches, which is
certainly below the seasonal average for the date (around 25%
according to the SPC sounding climatology). Although this
morning`s sounding showed an inversion around 900 hpa, strong
solar heating thanks to the fully sunny skies and early June sun
will erode this, allowing for a well-mixed atmosphere up to
750-800 hpa for this afternoon. Based on the current temps
aloft, this would equate to high temperatures reaching the lower
to perhaps mid-80s along the Hudson Valley and the 70s to
around 80 elsewhere. The ideal mixing will keep dewpoints into
the 40s to around 50 resulting in very comfortable humidity
levels. Wind will also be less than on Friday, though a few
localized gusts between 15 and 20 mph are possible during the
afternoon hours.

A slight increase in high clouds is expected tonight as an
upper-level shortwave disturbance approaches from the Great
Lakes, causing the ridge to weaken over our area. Still, good
radiational cooling conditions are expected due in part to the
dry air mass and winds trending light to calm. As a result, we
lowered temps a few degrees from the NBM. Lows are expected to
fall into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave will approach the region from the west
on Sunday but weaken as it continues eastward. The track of this
shortwave looks to be just to our south across the mid-Atlantic
states. In addition, a weak surface low over the Ohio Valley
will wash out. Much of the day Sunday will be dry, though
clouds will gradually increase and thicken throughout the day.
Still, temperatures should reach the lower to mid-80s across the
valleys and the mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations.

There remains some uncertainty on how much moisture will remain
with this weakening disturbance and how far north this
precipitation will reach. Will continue to run with a consensus
approach which generally places areas south of Interstate 90
with the better chance for a shower or two. These showers would
mostly occur during Sunday night. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy
night is expected with lows falling into the 50s to lower 60s.

The upper shortwave exits to the east, but some weak upper level
troughing may remain in place on Monday. High pressure building
back across the region should provide some subsidence across the
region. While most areas should remain dry, an isolated shower
or rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, another
summerlike day is in store with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s.
Mostly clear and dry weather is expected Monday night with
lows falling back into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair weather persists into the long term forecast period as high
pressure remains in control. In fact, dry conditions can be
expected through at least Wednesday night as the dominant
surface anticyclone and de-amplifying ridging aloft gradually
shift east and exit the region. With plentiful sun anticipated
before clouds increase a bit Tuesday afternoon/evening, high
temperatures look to range from the mid/upper 70s to low 80s at
1000 ft and above with mid to possibly higher 80s in valley
areas. Highs Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler with a more
consistent cloud deck and slightly weaker state of the mid/upper
ridge. Expect temperatures to range from the mid 70s to low and
possibly mid 80s.

An unsettled pattern will set in for the final days of the long
term period with the approach of an upper-level low and
associate surface frontal system. Mid/upper troughing will dig
south and east toward the region beginning Wednesday night from
south-central Canada and the upper Midwest as the parent low
deepens. The upper trough will begin to take on a slight
negative tilt as it digs further south and east into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some timing discrepancies exist in the
medium to long range guidance in terms of rain onset, but
general consensus indicates areas west of the Hudson could see
showers begin as early as Thursday morning. Rain will then
spread across eastern New York and western New England from west
to east throughout the day Thursday ahead of the system`s warm
front. Some embedded rumbles of thunder are possible Thursday
afternoon mainly west of the Hudson River, but instability looks
weak at this time. Rain will look to continue through Friday as
broad troughing remains overhead. Temperatures will continue to
follow a slight cooling trend with Thursday`s highs looking to
range from the mid to upper 70s in valley areas and upper 60s to
low 70s at higher elevations. Friday will be similar. Low
temperatures throughout the period will be primarily in the
mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...High pressure across eastern New York and
western New England will ensure VFR conditions throughout the
entirety of the 12z TAF period. Skies will be primarily clear
throughout much of the day, but some high clouds could drift in
later this afternoon into tonight. All clouds should remain FEW to
SCT.

Winds throughout the period will start light and variable,
increasing to sustained speeds of 4-8 kt out of the northwest this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant