901
FXUS61 KALY 141948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through this evening, especially north of
Interstate 90. Chances for showers continue tonight and
Wednesday before turning more scattered for Thursday as an upper
level disturbance tracks to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing north and west of
the Capital Region. CAPEs around 500-1000 j/kg over the region,
quite marginal, while midlevel lapse rates are not overly steep.
Area 12Z soundings showed much of the region capped but the cap
should erode through the rest of the afternoon. Shear is weak,
so any thunderstorms should not reach severe levels through this
evening. Some isolated thunderstorms could have small hail,
gusty winds and locally heavy rain but that is not unusual for
most thunderstorms.

The cold front slowly building south from the U.S./Canada border
is weakening, as the low level thermal and moisture gradient
weakens while the northern stream upper energy exits southern
and southeastern canada tonight. So, scattered coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be focused mainly from the
Schoharie Valley through northern parts of the Capital Region to
the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga
Region.

There are a few showers near the eastern Catskills and mid
Hudson Valley to NW CT, as the northern periphery of southern
stream moisture well ahead of upper energy in the midwest and
TN/OH Valley begins to approach. Moisture from the southern
stream system will expand north and combine with the weakening
cold front, which will result in clouds and better coverage of
showers toward daybreak. Lows tonight in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weak front will wash out over us while southern stream upper
energy and associated moisture and low level forcing tracks
south of Long Island Wednesday through Wednesday night. The
upper energy will then build southeast and farther offshore the
eastern U.S. Thursday. As the system tracks south of Long
Island Wednesday and Wednesday night, the northern shield of
showers will track through much of the region but mainly along
and south of I-90. Just scattered showers north of I-90. Highs
Wednesday in the 60s with near 70 Hudson Valley from the Capital
Region southward and around 60 southern Adirondacks.

The upper energy tracks well offshore Thursday but boundary
layer flow from the east increases over our region and some
moisture advection and low level convergence should support more
clouds than sun and isolated to scattered showers. Slightly
better coverage of showers in northern areas, near the old
frontal boundary, and in southern areas, closest to the northern
periphery of the offshore system. Highs Thursday in the 60s to
around 70.

Flat upper ridging builds into our region Thursday night into
Friday with weak northern stream upper energy beginning to
approach from the Great Lakes through the day Friday. Mainly
dry weather through Friday due to the flat upper ridging with
highs in the 70s with around 70 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty next weekend through the beginning of next
week. Some guidance has more upper impulses and mainly unsettled
weather, while other guidance shows flat upper ridging to zonal
upper flow, with drier weather. Some small upper impulses
within the flat upper ridging and zonal upper flow could bring
chances for showers at some point during the period.

So, until there is better agreement in the long term
guidance/ensembles, suggesting more clouds than sun and chances
for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday
with the best coverage of clouds and showers Saturday and Sunday
and potential breaks in the clouds Sunday and Monday.

Highs Saturday and Sunday in the 60s to lower 70s. Highs Monday
around 70 to mid 70s with some upper 60s southern Adirondacks.
Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s with around 70 to lower
70s in higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sunny this afternoon and mostly clear into this evening. A weak
cold front will slowly drop south from northern NY into our
region through the night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will reach the KGFL area after 22Z but just scattered, so
including VCSH there until thunderstorms develop and can be
tracked. Scattered showers and thunderstorms approach KALB, KPOU
and KPSF after 01Z-03Z. Again, not including thunderstorms until
some develop and can be tracked.

Thunderstorm threat will end by 06Z, but coverage of showers is
expected to increase between 06Z-12Z, when ceilings and
visibilities steadily trend toward MVFR. Intermittent showers
and rain will affect all TAF sites between 09Z-18Z with ceilings
trending to borderline MVFR/IFR after 15Z. KPSF will just have
scattered showers after 15Z as the best coverage of rain should
be in eastern NY after daybreak Wednesday.

South winds at around 10 Kt this afternoon with a few gusts to
15-20 Kt, will diminish overnight and become variable at less
than 6 Kt by daybreak. Light and variable to south winds at 6 Kt
or less expected through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS