Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 251854
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...Dry and Breezy Friday Precedes Soggy and Stormy Stretch...

.DISCUSSION... Dry conditions set to rule for the day on Friday
as a tightening pressure gradient increases southeasterly flow
across the region. Highs largely in the low to mid 60s across the
board (warmest NW lower, lower 50s closer to Lake Huron). Before
moisture arrive with the next system, one final period of very dry
conditions set to occur Friday, with dewpoints mixing into the 20s
for most by early afternoon. Winds will generally be sustained at
5-15mph, with occasional gusts as high as 25mph. Considering the
dry nature of the day (RHs as low as 20), fire danger will likely
remain elevated for much of northern lower Michigan through at least
the early afternoon. Eventually, better moisture will build across
the region as a warm front approaches, with showers slowly building
into the area through the overnight hours. This will be the commencement
of a prolonged stretch of milder but showery / stormy weather that is
set to bring multiple rounds of rain, heavy at times, to northern
lower Michigan through the course of the weekend and into next week,
bringing more beneficial moisture to the soils as we march closer to
greenup (which could really take off in the next week or two considering
we are looking at mild nights with warmer temperatures during rain).


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-260815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....29-34.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 11 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (843).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (248).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.28- 0.43 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200Rain showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......38 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (777).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.25 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31...except 33-38 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........22-27 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (675).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (111).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.25- 0.45 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200Rain showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......39 percent wetter...except 31 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (685).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.26 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-260815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....28-33...except 36-41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 13 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (876).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 19 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (264).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.30- 0.49 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200Chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......39 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (814).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 0.21 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-260815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....28-33.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (962).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (226).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.32- 0.43 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200Chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......38 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (779).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 0.17 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (847).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......21 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (201).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.28- 0.44 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200Rain showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (774).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.14- 0.21 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

HAD
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