568
AXNT20 KNHC 102326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N21W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 04N45W to the coast of Brazil near
03N51W. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 01.5N to 05N E of 12W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed south of 07N between 12W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the northern Gulf, from the
western Florida Panhandle to northeast portions of Tamaulipas,
Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the boundary to
the west of 90W. No significant cloud cover or convection is
associated with either feature, except for a cluster of moderate
convection along the front centered about 45-60 nm S-SE of
Pensacola. Behind the front, gentle to moderate NE to E winds
prevail. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate
the rest of basin ahead of the front, becoming southwesterly
across the Florida Big Bend. Seas are slight to moderate across
the entire basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift SE across the basin,
reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida to S Texas early Sat, stall
from the Straits of Florida to S Texas on Sun, then gradually
weaken with its remnants lifting back N as a warm front through
Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow
the front into Sat evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will
dominate the basin for the start of next week, with another front
or frontal trough possibly impacting the western Gulf by Tue.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico
continues across most of the western Gulf. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening starting Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean
Sea, as high pressure is centered across the east-central
Atlantic, and extends a weak ridge westward to south Florida.
Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over most of the basin,
except fresh to strong E to SE winds across outer portions of the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly slight to moderate across the
Caribbean, with peak seas to 6 ft offshore of the central
Venezuelan coast, and across the Gulf of Honduras. Stable
atmospheric conditions now dominate most of the basin. The
exception is about the monsoon trough, where scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted between 10N and 12N W of 75W.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge N of the basin will
support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh winds in the S-central and SE Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten early next week, as new high
pressure shifts into the western Atlantic, behind a cold front
moving across that area this weekend. Expect fresh to strong
trades in the S-central and NW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
elsewhere by early next week. Seas will build next week as a
result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural
fires in Central America continues across most of the NW
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered thunderstorms are moving eastward and away from the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, ahead of a cold front
nearing the southeastern U.S. coasts. Further east, a weak trough
is analyzed from 30N58W to 20N61W. Scattered showers are noted
along this feature. Elsewhere west of 60W, a weak Atlantic ridge
extends westward across the area into south Florida. Moderate to
fresh SW winds are present north of 27N and west of 65W. South of
the ridge, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail north of the
Greater Antilles to 22N. Seas are slight to moderate across these
waters, reaching 6 to 7 ft along 31N in the fresh southwesterly
winds.

The remainder of the central and western Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad ridge anchored on a 1025 mb high centered
near 33N35W. A broad mid to upper-level trough is inducing a
surface trough that is analyzed along 23N47W to 14N52W. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 15N to 24N between
38W and 45W. Mainly gentle to moderate NE to E are present east
of 48W to 30W. Moderate seas in northerly swell prevail across
these waters, with peak seas 7 to 8 ft from 10N to 20N between 30W
and 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak 1014 mb low pressure near
24.5N60W is along a trough in the eastern waters, and interrupts
a broad Atlantic ridge extending westward into south Florida this
evening. This trough will dissipate by early Sat. Otherwise, the
Atlantic high pressure ridge over the basin will shift E as a cold
front moves off the SE United States. The front will reach from
31N74W to near West Palm Beach, Florida early Sat, then from just
SE of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sun. Fresh to strong
winds will be ahead of the front through Sat evening, with
moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Associated building seas
to around 8 ft will accompany the winds. The front will weaken
and slow, reaching from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas early Mon, then
from 29N55W to 23N65W early Tue as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front. Another front will enter the NW waters around
mid-week.

$$
Stripling