882
FXUS61 KBGM 140121
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
921 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few scattered showers will move across the region this
evening, followed by the next round of rain and possibly weak
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Rain will linger into
Wednesday before high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday
with generally drier and warmer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Any remaining showers should clear out by midnight along with
any thunder chances. Lowered pops a bit with the late evening
update. Previous discussion below.

Given recent trends, limited any thunder mention to isolated at
best through the evening hours. One heavier batch of showers
should translate from Syracuse to the Utica hours through about
8pm dropping a tenth to quarter inch of precipitation. Forecast
discussion below largely on track.

253 PM update...

Main concerns in the near term are centered around the weak,
scattered showers and storms possible later this afternoon and
into the early evening hours, mainly over central NY...and the
next round of showers and storms expected to develop Tuesday
afternoon, again north of the NY/PA border. The Tuesday
convection will linger into Tuesday night and spread south into
PA.

Earlier today, a weak warm front lifted north/newd across the
region this morning and brought a broken area of rain showers
that are currently tapering off in the Catskills and into the
southern Adirondacks. A secondary area of precipitation is
breaking out over western NY and is currently pushing into the
central Southern Tier of NY. The warm front to the north and east
has left behind a slightly more unstable air mass with around
50-100 J/kg of ML CAPE, and with some steeper low level lapse
rates starting to push in from the southwest, and a broad area
of warm air advection amidst a passing weak upper s/w, the
threat for a few weak thunderstorms exists into this evening.
Severe weather is not anticipated.

This weak upper level feature will roll to the east this
evening and with the combination of the loss of instability
after sunset, the threat for convection should diminish after 9
PM. The warm front to the north will remain situated north of
the NY Thruway tonight, and keep all of the forecast area in a
relatively mild air mass. Temperatures will only drop into the
lower 50s for tonight, and there could be some clearing, but we
will likely keep mostly a layer of mid and high clouds through
the night.

The warm front to the north will transition to a cold front and
drop southward on Tuesday morning slowly across the region.
There will likely be some showers develop along the Thruway late
Tuesday morning and also an area of convection blossom over PA
by the early afternoon as an upper wave over the TN valley lifts
into the mid Atlantic region. The overall air mass will remain
unstable through the rest of the day and into Tuesday night as
the cold front stalls across the region and focuses scattered
showers and storms throughout the area. The air mass is expected
to be quite rich with a ribbon of PWs up to 1.3 inches along
the front. The large-scale forcing for ascent should be rather
weak, so hydro/flooding concerns should be limited. Rainfall
amounts will range from 0.5 to 1 inch at the most from Tuesday
through Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Frontal system continues to push through the region on Wednesday
setting off more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms possible.
Model soundings show weak instability with this system, therefore
not expecting many impacts with these storms. At the same time an
upper level low slides eastwards supplying enough moisture to allow
showers to continue into the evening and overnight period. Otherwise
highs will range in the mid 60s to lower 70 during the day with lows
falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s overnight. The upper
level low drifts eastward/away from the area early Thursday
morning, which will allow for most of the coverage of showers to
diminish. However, some model guidance keeps this upper low
close enough to have showers linger around a bit longer in the
morning and afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will range in the
mid to upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Brief upper level ridge builds in Thursday night into
Friday with drier conditions expected overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 PM Update...

Friday morning should remain relatively dry before another frontal
system approaches the region in the afternoon. This sets off an
initial round of showers that is expected to continue through Friday
night becoming more organized in nature by Saturday morning. In
general model guidance keeps showers in the forecast throughout
most of the weekend with a ridge attempting to build in Sunday
night. Models begin to diverge for the remaining period,
therefore relied on NBM pops to account for these uncertainties.
Temperatures in the long term will range in the upper 60s to
upper 70s during the day with lows falling in the 50s
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 pm update...

Mostly VFR will continue through Tuesday.

An area of rain just moved through most of CNY with unrestricted
rain until 01z at KRME. KSYR had MVFR vsbys with the rain so
maybe it will happen at KRME.

More showers will move in Tuesday after 20z. Showers and
possibly thunderstorms will be scattered so only included VCSH
with no restrictions.

Winds will start out of the south at 4 to 8 kts this evening
then become light and variable late tonight. Tuesday winds will
be out of the south and southwest at 7 to 10 kts.

Low level wind shear is possible tonight at KRME. 2k ft winds
are southwest at 30 kts with surface winds east at 6 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible
embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR
restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate
to high confidence

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night
into Saturday with showers and storms and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...TAC